In September, LPR quotes remain unchanged.

【data】

The People's Bank of China authorized the inter -bank interbank borrowing center announced that the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on September 20, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time.

【Interpretation】

In August, LPR has achieved asymmetric reduction, September MLF interest rate has remained unchanged, and the net interest difference between banks continues to be under pressure and increased external restrictions. The September LPR quotation remains unchanged.

1. September MLF interest rate remains unchanged, and the foundation of LPR quotation has not changed

In September 1st, LPR and LPR quotes over 5 -year or more remained unchanged. On the one hand, the central bank continued to make 400 billion yuan for one -year MLF in that month, and the bid interest rate was 2.75%. LPR interest rates are linked to MLF. In the context of MLF interest rates that have not been adjusted, the foundation of LPR quotation in September has not changed.

In September, the MLF interest rate did not adjust, mainly due to the MLF bid interest rate in August that the interest rate has been reduced by 10bp. At present, the interest rate cut effect is now emerging. In the short term, the policy will still be in the observation period. Under the dislocation of the policy, the importance of the stability rate increase, the Federal Reserve and other significant interest rate hike expectations will be further strengthened to restrict domestic interest rate cuts. Recently, the RMB exchange rate "breaks 7" has also had a certain impact on policy interest rates and market interest rate adjustments.

2. The net interest difference between banks continues to be pressed. In the short term

In recent years, the net interest difference between commercial banks has been in a downward channel. Since the beginning of this year, the impact of the epidemic has been repeated and the economic downward pressure has increased. Under the imbalance of the interest entities and credit supply and demand, bank's asset -side yields have continued to decline; since the second quarter, due to the severe deposit time The cost of liabilities has a certain degree of rigidity, and the narrowing pressure of commercial banks has further increased. According to data from the CBRC, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the second quarter was 1.94%, which continued to narrow 3bp from the previous quarter, which was significantly narrowed significantly year -on -year.

At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to that since April this year, the liquidity has been relatively loose, and the capital interest rate is under low -level operation, so that banks can continue to enjoy low -cost market liabilities dividends, otherwise the narrowing pressure on net interest margins will be further prominent.

At present, the contradiction between credit supply and demand is still large. This year, the 1 -year and 5 -year LPR decreased from 3.8%, 4.65%to 3.65%and 4.3%. Squeeze the bank's revenue. Therefore, in the case of August 1st and 5 -year LPR reduced 5bp and 15bp, the power and space of LPR was lowered again in September.

At the same time, under the current trend of the low interest rate market environment and the continuous narrowing of net interest rates in the banking industry, further controlling the cost of liabilities has also become an important force for the stability difference between banks. To this end, on September 15, the six major banks lowered the listing interest rate of RMB deposits. Among them, 5bp was reduced, and the three -year regular interest rate was reduced by 15bp. On September 16, a number of national joint -stock banks also issued an announcement that announced that the deposit interest rate was reduced. The adjustment interest rate of this time also opened the space for the continuous decline of deposit interest rates, which helps better control the cost of liabilities and stabilize bank operations.

The probability of continuing the probability of LPR quotation of more than 5 years in the fourth quarter of the fourth quarter is still large

Macro data in August shows that under the influence of factors such as a stable growth policy and continuing policy in the early stage, the continuous efforts of the continuous policy, and the lower base of the same period last year, economic indicators such as industrial production, investment, and consumption have risen Essence In the fourth quarter, the growth rate of exports continued down and the real estate industry chain was not as good as expected, and it would continue to drag the economy. To this end, under the environment where the deposit interest rate is reduced, it continues to increase the quotation of LPR more than 5 years to support the medium and long -term investment and stabilizing real estate of infrastructure and manufacturing. It is particularly important to stimulate the release of potential credit demand. Essence

In the process, considering the speed and amplitude of bank debt costs, the intensity of the interest rate of the loan end is still less than the decline in the loan side. The net interest margin still has continued to narrow the pressure. Interest rate quotation mechanism, MPA assessment, management and control structural deposits, etc. to strengthen the control of liability cost and increase the power of the offer to reduce LPR quotation and increase, it is still a continuous project.

For 1 -year LPR, in the case of low pressure on the current quotation, the interest rate point of high -quality corporate loans is lower, and even with some regular deposits pricing, if it continues to be lowered, it is easy to exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise, followed by follow -up The probability of decrease again is reduced.

(Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Zhang Liyun, Director of the Financial Market Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute)

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