U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted and deepened experts expect the trend to continue

Since September, the degree of inversion of the curve of the US debt yield curve of some critical period has continued to deepen. According to Wind data, as of September 19th, the press publishing, 2 -year, 10 -year, 10 -year, 10 -year, 2 -year and 30 -year US debt yields inverted to 40 basis points, 17 basis points, respectively. 33 basis points; and on September 1, there were 25 basis points, 13 basis points, and 14 basis points, respectively.

At the same time, the 3 -month and 10 -year US debt yield curve that is recognized by the market has also flattened the more accurate economic recession. On the 6th, the maximum spread of 227 basis points in the year 6 has narrowed nearly 89%.

A number of analysts said in an interview with the Securities Daily that before the Federal Reserve's interest rate conference in September, the yields of long -term and short -end US debt were further inverted, reflecting that the market fell into a "recession" of the US economy in the background of the Fed's radical interest rate hike The concerns are intensified.

"Before the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike in September, the inverted rate of long -term US debt yields was mainly due to the U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations in August, promoting the market ’s expectations for the Fed’ s radical interest rate hikes to strengthen again. " The Securities Daily said in an interview.

According to data released by the Statistics of the US Department of Labor on September 13, the US CPI in August rose by 8.3%year -on -year and 0.1%month -on -month, all exceeding the market expectations. As a result, the market's expectations for the Fed's 75 -basis points in September, and even the expectations of 75 basis points, or even 100 basis points, also heated up sharply. The 2 -year US debt yields that are more sensitive to monetary policy have rushed rapidly. On September 13, 17 basis points were raised compared to the previous day, and 3.87%were on the market on September 15th, a new high in the past 15 years.

Dong Zhongyun said that short -term US debt yields mainly reflect the expectations of policy interest rates, and long -term yields also include expectations for future economy and inflation. The Fed's radical interest rate hike pushing the short -term interest rate, while inhibiting the growth rate of long -term economic and inflation, thereby pressureing the long -term yield and causing long -term and short -end inverted. The leading signal of economic recession.

Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that under the influence of the Federal Reserve interest rate interest rate hike expectations in September, the short -term interest rate of US debt was rapidly upward. As the interest rate center moved up, long -term inflation expectations gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually gradually became. The increase in economic recession risk has also curbed the long -term interest rate. In summary, long -term interest rates are not as high as short -end interest rates. Deep upside down also implies that the US economy decline is heating up.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, believes that due to the increase in downward pressure on the US economy and the sharp interest rate hike of the Fed, the possibility of long -term and short -end US debt yields will continue to hang up.

Many analysts also have similar views. "Although U.S. inflation may be in the top area, the toughness of high inflation may be strong in the future, which will force the United States to continue to tightening." Dong Zhongyun said that the current market expects that the Federal Reserve ’s rate hikes are at 4.25%to 4.5%or even higher. That is, there are at least 200 basis interest rate hikes, which means that short -term US debt yields have not yet been topped. However, the implicit inflation of 10 -year US debt is expected to decline after seeing it in April this year, and the market's concerns about the decline in the US economy have also increasingly intensified, which will suppress the upward of the long -term yield.

Wang Youxin believes that from the phenomenon of upside down, there are two types of transaction logic in the current US debt trading market. First, the short -term government bond market is undergoing "currency policy tightening transactions". Under the condition of tightening expectations, the short -term rate of return will continue to rise; the second is that "recession transactions" are in the long -term market. In particular, especially the euro zone economy may fall into recession in the fourth quarter, risk aversion funds may accelerate the inflow of the US long -term national bond market, and the long -term return on the United States may not rise sharply with the Fed's interest rate hike, or even fall. As the Fed continues to deepen the expected sharp interest rate hike expectations, the above two transactions will continue to be strengthened, and the upside -down trend of US debt yields may further intensify.

The depth of long -term US debt is often regarded by the market as a precursor to the decline of the US economy. Analysts believe that the continuous inverse phenomenon may have significantly inhibit investor risk preferences. Dong Zhongyun believes that, especially when the US economy and policies have significant spillover effects, as the US economic recession is expected to continue to strengthen, global risk preferences will be suppressed, which will have a negative impact on risk asset investment.

However, as far as the domestic market is concerned, analysts believe that the core factors that affect my country's bond market trend are still the fundamental fundamentals and monetary policies in my country. In the middle and long term, the inverted US debt yields have a controllable impact on my country's bond market.

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