What impact does many banks follow up to reduce deposit interest rates on banks and investors?

19.09.2022

Number of this text: 3102, the reading time is about 5 minutes older

Introduction: 3 -year and 5 -year downgrade between 10 and 50bp.

Author | First Financial Duan Siyu

Following the pace of state -owned banks, many stock banks such as Ping An Bank, Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Guangfa Bank have lowered the regular deposit interest rates, and the adjustment is between 5 and 50 basis points. The cost of liabilities relieves the narrowing pressure of interest differences.

However, at present, the interest rates of individual urban commercial banks have been reduced, and most of them are still watching. "We have not adjusted yet. The Ministry of Finance of the Total Branch is collecting information about the actual interest rate of other banks, and then we formulate our response strategy, which depends on the implementation of the industry. Essence This is also the current choice of most city commercial banks.

In the context of the decline in market interest rates, the consensus in the industry is that more banks will follow the decline in deposit interest rates in the future to leave room for subsequent reduction of the financing costs of physical enterprises. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher at Zhailian Financial and part -time researcher at the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University, said that in the process, different banks have different development strategies, liabilities capabilities, and business structures.

Small and small bank follow -up reduction of deposit interest rates

"We adjusted after September 16th. Except for the three -year regular deposit interest rate, the majority of other varieties decreased by 10bp, and the interest rate of large deposit deposits also dropped from 3.3%to about 3.25%." Pudong Development Bank The customer manager of a branch told reporters.

Similar to Pudong Development Bank. According to incomplete statistics, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, Everbright Bank, CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Huaxia Bank, Guangfa Bank, Hengfeng Bank and other shares have lowered the regular deposit interest rate. Most of the three -month, six -month, one -year, and two -year periods of the above banks have decreased by 10bp, and the three -year and five -year downgrade is between 10 and 50bp.

This is the second round of personal deposit interest rates since this year. After the adjustment, the listing interest rate of a number of shareholders has basically been consistent. Among them, three months, six months, and one -year regular deposit interest rates are mostly 1.3%, 1.55%, and 1.85%; the two -year regular deposit interest rate is between 2.15%and 2.4%; the three -year and five -year period The interest rate of regular deposits is 2.65%and 2.7%.

In addition to the shares, it is reported that the deposit interest rate in parts of Nanjing Bank has actually been reduced. For example, the Nanjing Branch has adjusted the five -year regular deposit interest rate from the previous 3.75%to 3.65%, and the adjustment date is September 16; the year The period, two -year, and three -year regular deposit interest rates have not yet been adjusted, respectively, 2.1%, 2.6%, and 3.25%, respectively. However, the official public account of the First Financial Inquiry of Nanjing found that the bank's deposit reference interest rate announced that the bank has not changed.

The reporter also asked the head office of many urban commercial banks such as Bank of Ningbo and Bank of Shanghai, which reported that there was no adjustment of interest rates for the time being. "We will pay attention to the adjustment of other interbank industry and adopt a follow -up strategy." The relevant person in the aforementioned office of the commercial bank of a certain city in China told reporters.

Even so, many people in the industry believe that more banks will be added to teams with interest rates in the future. Dong Ximiao said that the bank reduction of deposit interest rates has both the cause of the bank itself and the effects and effects of many external factors. From the perspective of internal causes, this is the active behavior of banks to strengthen asset -liability management and keep interest margin. Since the beginning of this year, banks have increased their benefits to the real economy, and the LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) has declined significantly. The bank reduction of deposit interest rates, the cost of lowering the liabilities, will help to further promote the decline in asset interest rates while maintaining stable interest margins, reducing the financing costs of enterprises and residents, and then stimulating effective financing needs.

Shen Chao, a macro -strategy analyst at HSBC Jinxin Fund, also told reporters that the deposit interest rate is to hedge the pressure on the downward return of bank asset -side yields in the early stage. Earlier, the central bank guided the interest rate self -discipline mechanism to establish a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates. Members of the self -discipline mechanism bank referred to the bond market interest rates represented by the 10 -year Treasury bond yield and the loan market interest rate represented by one -year LPR. Interest rate level. In the early stage, the interest rate of Treasury bonds declined significantly, and LPR also decreased many times, so the bank has lowered the deposit interest rate accordingly.

According to data from the CBRC, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the second quarter was 1.94%, which continued to narrow 3BP compared with the first quarter, and it was at a historical low. This was mainly due to several declines of policy interest rates at the beginning of the year and the impact of the real economy. According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities, the deposit interest rate will eventually reduce the interest rate of about 7 basis points of bank deposit and reduce the cost of interest rate calculation of about 5 basis points, which can significantly alleviate the interest deviation pressure next year.

The bank adjustment strategy is different

From the perspective of deposit interest rates, different types of bank adjustments are slightly different. In contrast, the six state -owned banks and China Merchants Bank have a large increase in the three -year interest rate adjustment, while other joint -stock banks have a greater effort to reduce the interest rate of the five -year deposit rate.

Specifically, for the six state -owned banks and China Merchants Bank, before this adjustment, the three -year and five -year listing interest rates were 2.75%, but in the actual interest rate, some banks' five -year regular deposits Interest rates are even less than three -year regular deposit interest rates, and interest rates have inverted interest rates. "The asymmetric adjustment of the three -year and five -year -old period is designed to adjust the interest rate period structure to repair the rate of interest rate curves." Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of Everbright Securities Financial Industry, told reporters. In addition, for other joint -stock banks, Wang Yifeng said that in the context of the current regularization of deposits, joint -stock banks have decreased on long -term limited deposit absorption demand, which will moderately control the five -year regular deposit absorption. At the same time, banks are right In the future, the new deposit interest rate has been issued to the newly issued deposit interest rate. It has not hoped that customers can "lock" the income in advance through more than three -year deposits, and then exacerbate interest rate risks. This is also the greatly lowered five -year deposit deposit this time. The main reason for interest rates.

For example, Guangfa Bank's five -year regular deposit interest rate was reduced by 50bp compared with the previous, while the three -year period was reduced by 45bp; Everbright Bank's five -year top deposit interest rate was reduced by 30bp compared with the previous, while the three -year period was reduced by 10BP. On the whole, after the interest rate adjustment, the state -owned bank's listing interest rate is basically the same, and the interest rate of the joint -stock system and the urban commercial bank is relatively high.

From a banking point of view, the reduction of interest rates will benefit the banks with higher personal deposits. Yu Jinxin, an analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that if the deposit interest rate is reduced to more banks, the net interest margin of Da Bank and Rural Commercial Bank improves or relatively obvious. This is because the listed banks and the individual deposits of the Da Bank and the Rural Commercial Bank account for a relatively high proportion, and the regular proportion of the Rural Commercial Bank's personal account is significantly higher than that of other types of banks. As of the first half of this year, it reached 50.4%.

"State -owned banks and China Merchants Bank's customer base have a good foundation, the concentration of deposits is lower than other banks, the customer's bargaining ability is weak, the settlement of settlement funds is larger, and the listing interest rate on the debt cost of such banks is actually improved. Better. "Wang Yifeng mentioned that on the contrary, other joint -stock banks accounted for a low proportion of current deposits, high concentration on public deposits, strong customer bargaining ability, and the improvement of the cost and revenue of such banks' debt and revenue, which will relative Weak.

The market without risk interest rates will be a long -term trend

For investors, the adjustment of bank deposit interest rates has always attracted much attention. Since the beginning of this year, the capital market has exacerbated the fluctuations, the net value of stocks, funds and wealth management products has fluctuated, and the risk preferences of residents have declined. More people are biased towards deposits. Therefore, compared with the decrease in bank loan interest rates, the impact of the adjustment of deposit interest rate adjustment is more obvious.

The central bank's questionnaire survey in the second quarter of this year showed that 58.3%of the residents tending to "savings" were 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. Reduce deposit interest rates, or to a certain extent conducive to residents' willingness to increase consumption and investment, conducive to transformation of funds to the entity department, and then promote the formation of wide credit.

Data show that in August of this year, residents' deposits and corporate deposits increased by 1.83 trillion yuan and 1.06 trillion yuan, respectively. 100 million yuan. Among them, the new scale of residents' deposits hit a record high in the same period, and the new scale of corporate deposits is only lower than the same period in 2016. The market entity has a strong willingness to savings, and the deposits are continuously intensified.

After the interest rate is reduced, this situation may change. Huang Dazhi, a senior researcher at the Star Financial Research Institute, said that for storage households with low risk preferences, other products with certain replacement can be selected. Such as monetary funds, pure debt funds, bank cash management wealth management tools (such as banks of banks), interbank deposit index funds, and lifetime life of increased long -term yields.

"Compared with bank deposits, although these products are not like the guarantee of bank deposits with deposit insurance systems, they are very similar to bank deposits in terms of risk, liquidity and benefits, and can replace deposits to a certain extent." Huang Dazhi It is said that in addition to choosing products that also have the principal and similar products and similar products, it is also a choice to appropriately increase personal risk preferences and increase the proportion of equity assets.

Dong Ximiao believes that the downward trend of risk -free interest rates in the Chinese market will be a long -term trend. For the majority of residents, if there are many deposits and cash management wealth management products in asset allocation, the yield may decline. Should balance the relationship between risks and income, based on their own risk tolerance and investment and financial needs, and do a good job of diversified asset allocation.

In addition, Shen Chao also mentioned that reducing deposit interest rates actually reduced the risk -free return on the market. It is expected to increase market risk appetite to a certain extent, which constitutes a good good for bonds and A -share markets.

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