Yang Delong: The market adjustment in the second half of the year is close to the end of A -share profit.

Zhongxin Jingwei September 19th. Question: Market adjustment in the second half of the year is close to the end of A -share profit.

Author Yang Delong Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist

On September 19, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities maintained a trend of shocks and ended the trend of unilateral adjustment last week. This also marked that this round of adjustments may have entered the end, and the market confidence is gradually restoration.

The Fed will start the interest rate conference this week. According to the general forecast of the market, the Fed may raise interest rates on September 21. Once 75 basis points are raised, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will be increased to more than 3%. The space for interest is not large. The highest expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is 4.4%, which means that after this interest rate hike, the Fed may have a rate hike 2 to 3 times to end this round of interest rate hikes. Of course, it also depends on the changes in American inflation and economic growth and employment data. If U.S. inflation can be controlled faster, the Fed may reduce the number of interest rate hikes. Conversely, if the inflation is high in the United States, the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, so it depends on the specific inflation data.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike triggered the continued rise in the US dollar index, leading to depreciation of non -US currency. The RMB exchange rate has also fluctuated, but the depreciation is less than other major currencies. Although the renminbi breaks the "7" in the short term of the US dollar, it does not mean that the renminbi has formed a trend of depreciation. In fact, with the gradual landing policy of my country's package to stabilize economic growth, the economic face may rise to a certain amount of stability. This will be given to it. The exchange rate trend provides a firm foundation. my country has more than 30 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, which is a firm support for the RMB exchange rate.

From a market perspective, the A -share market has continued to adjust recently. September may be a bottom of the market in the second half of the year, or it may become an inflection point in the market in the second half of the year. This round of adjustment is a slow adjustment, and the adjustment time is relatively long, so the bottom of this time may be the bottom of the arc. Both the valuation of the market and the transaction volume and the market emotions show that the current market is currently at the bottom of the bottom. area.

Considering that the central bank's statement will continue to take positive measures to cope with the slowdown of economic growth, the liquidity will remain reasonable and abundant, which will provide liquidity support for market recovery. In August, the retail data of social consumer goods was released, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 5.4%year -on -year. In addition to the zero -rate ratio of the automotive society, the zero -rate increase of 4.3%, which is significantly better than expected. Considering the reasons for the base, consumption has rebounded to a certain extent, but the range is not much. At present, the profit of the A -share market has been confirmed. With the recovery of the economy, the profitability of the overall listed company in A -share may rise in the second half of the year. At present, the country is currently in the situation of wide currencies plus high -quality assets shortage. The risk of continued decline in the A -share market is not large. The market adjustment is actually concentrated on the release of some sharp and empty factors. Now it is also a better time window for the fourth quarter of the layout.

From the perspective of policies, the policy promotion of the insurance diplomatic relations has been effective, and the continuous efforts of steady growth of continuous growth. In addition, the central bank is a gradual transformation from wide currency to wide credit. It is expected that my country's economy is expected to recover steadily in the fourth quarter, which will bring the basis for the rise of the A -share market in the fourth quarter. It is very important to maintain confidence when the market shock adjustment. It is a better investment strategy to seize the market opportunity to seize the market by holding some high -quality leading stocks or high -quality leading funds. Things must be reversed. Compared with the decade at the decade of the US stock market, the A -share market is at the bottom of the bottom, so the performance of the A -share market may continue to win U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.

Today, there is also a very eye -catching event on the policy. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is listed and traded today to China CSI 500 ETF option contract. The GEM ETF option contract of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is also officially launched. The launch of two ETF options this time has enriched ETF options, provided more risk management tools for the market, and created a good financial environment for the real economy. At the same time, it can further stimulate market innovation momentum and attract long -term funds to enter the market.

However, it is worth noting that the target of these two options is the basis of the foundation, and the CSI 500 index and the GEM index belong to the index composed of small and medium -sized cyle stocks, which are characterized by good growth and large stock price elasticity, so the index fluctuates The rate is high. The option contract based on this index may also usher in a relatively large fluctuation. It is recommended that ordinary investors participate with caution, especially investors who do not understand the option pricing model. Do not blindly participate to prevent losses. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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