Is the yen still falling?The US -Japan -Lerry Movement continues to expand the hedge fund short yen betting to three months high

Financial Press, September 19 (Editor Chunchun) The betting of the yen of the hedge fund to see the yen rose to a three -month high. Due to the expectations of investor expectations, the yen performance will continue to weaken in the context of raising interest rates in developed countries. Essence

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), the hedge fund increased the net vacant contract of 18,836 yen last week, the largest increase since March this year.

When the hedge fund is short of yen, the market has experienced a turbulent week, partly because the US consumer price index (CPI) exceeds expectations in August, which has exacerbated people's expectations for the Fed of the United States. Super loose policy.

The US -Japan spread will be further expanded

Since the beginning of the year, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen by 20%, becoming the worst currency in the G10 countries, because the spread between the United States and Japan's policy interest rates has continued to expand, prompting investors to sell the yen.

The US -Japan spread is expected to expand further this week. The US CPI increase in August exceeded expectations, which caused a change in market discussion. From the expected Fed, it upgraded the "50 base point or 75 base point" to raise interest rates into "75 base points or 100 base points".

At 2:00 on Thursday (September 22) Beijing time, the Fed FOMC will announce interest rate resolution, policy statement and economic expectations, and then Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.

In contrast, the market is generally expected to maintain interest rates at a very low level. At 11:00 Beijing time, the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate resolutions. Subsequently, the governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda Hidaka, will hold a press conference of monetary policy.

The Australian National Bank's strategist Ray Attrill said that it is reasonable that the US -Japan spreads have continuously expanded that speculative selling yen. Unless the spread is prevented or reversed, the yen is vulnerable to additional selling pressure.

Earlier this month, the yen fell to the US dollar to $ 1,44.90 yen for a time, and forced the 145 mark. After the continued verbal warning of the Japanese authorities failed to curb the decline in the yen, a report was reported last week that the Bank of Japan conducted a so -called exchange rate inspection in the foreign exchange market, which was considered a precursor to intervention. Affected by this, the yen exchange rate rebounded.

On Monday in the Asian market, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar was not changing, and it is currently reported at 143.18 yen.

Analysts generally expect the Japanese yen to further depreciate

Strategists generally expect that the yen will devalue further. Goldman Sachs said last week that if the US debt yield continues to rise, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar may fall to $ 1 and 155 yen.

Bank of America believes that although the global central bank has raised interest rates, Japan's control of the yield curve "has not changed." The bank predicts that the yen will fall to 150 due to "poor spreads, concerns about currency depreciation and capital escape".

HSBC Holdings recently pointed out that the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar may fall below the important mark of 145. Royal Bank of Canada expects that the yen against the US dollar exchange rate will fall to $ 1 and 147 yen this year.

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