Will gold prices continue to go down?Platinum prices are better than other products this year?

On September 15th, the World Platinum Investment Association and the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center jointly hosted the theme of "Gold and Silver Platinum, where is the opportunity -monthly inventory of the precious metal market and Platinum quarterly report".

(This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.)

Dai Jianfeng, general manager of Beijing Zhicze World, Song Jiangqing, Director of Yuebao Gold Investment, and Researcher Li Yuefeng, Beijing Golden Economic Development Research Center, analyzed the trend of precious metal market and the allocation of precious metal assets. The second quarter of 2022 "Platinum Journey" and the global platinum market forecast in 2022. Zhang Wenbin, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, is the host of the live broadcast.

Yuebao Gold Investment Director Song Jiangzhen

The global economic downturn will not be conducive to gold prices

The price of platinum and silver has recently rebounded higher than the price of gold. Why doesn't the gold price rising at present? From the perspective of gold's currency attributes, the price of gold is related to interest rates and exchange rates. From the perspective of gold's commodity attributes, the global economic development is currently slow, and the economic downturn has made gold prices lack long -term support. The price of silver, platinum, and gold has a relatively large price, and these three commodities attributes are stronger. If the economy continues, it will adversely affect the prices of gold and silver, gold, and platinum.

Dai Jianfeng, general manager of Beijing Zhicze World

It is recommended to take risk defense measures

The market conditions of the past month can be summarized as the three core words: the global central bank's annual meeting, the European Central Bank, and the consumer price index data. The market prediction is basically correct on the impact of the global central bank's annual meeting on the market. In early September, the European Central Bank began to raise interest rates for the first time. The European Central Bank raised the three major interest rates of 75 basis points. This is also the first time the European Central Bank raised 75 basis points in 1999. Essence After the inflation in the United States was announced in August, the market expectations of 100 basis points in September appeared. Market fluctuations may increase. It is recommended that traders and investors do a good job of risk defense.

Li Yuefeng, a researcher at Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center

Gold will have the timing of configuration in the fourth quarter

Since Trump as the president of the United States, the peripheral environment of gold has undergone fundamental changes. First, Trump triggered global trade frictions, caused a wave of globalization. The inflation environment also changed, and low inflation became high inflation. Second, after the outbreak, the Fed's easing policy changed the downward trend of US debt yields and turned to upward trend. Third, the future may face the environment of high interest rates and high inflation, that is, stagflation.

The price of precious metals has declined as a whole since March this year. Gold prices will encounter a cycle window in the fourth quarter, which will be a time to configure gold. In the long run, the top time in the US dollar will appear in the second or third quarter of 2023, at that time, it will be the time to configure gold.

Zeng Ziyang, the Asia -Pacific Market Development Manager of the World Platinum Investment Association

In 2022, the total number of Chinese platinum imports may reach 1.3 million ounces

Although the price is weak, the performance of platinum is relatively good. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of platinum and gold is better than other commodities. For platinum, this reflects the continued strong demand for supply and the demand for automobiles, industry and jewelry, and China's import volume has continued to increase. In the second quarter of this year, the decrease in mineral supply and scrap vehicles, resulting in a decrease of 7%of the total supply, of which the supply of refined minerals decreased by 1%(-2,000 ounces), and the recycling supply decreased by 16%year-on-year (-86,000 Division Division Division To.

In the second quarter of this year, the demand for strong automobiles, jewelry and industrial fields was offset by the decline in demand in the field of capital. In the second quarter, demand in the automotive field rose by 8%(+50,000 plates); demand in the field of jewelry increased by 5%(+26,000 ounces); Growth; demand in the investment field decreased by 329,000 ounces, of which 37,000 ounces were reduced, ETF (exchange trading fund) decreased by 120,000 ounces, and exchange inventory decreased by 172,000 ounces. Market surplus is 34900 ounces.

Forecast in 2022, net negative investment will push up market surplus. It is estimated that the refining output in 2022 will decrease by 8%(-502,000 Division), of which South Africa will decrease by 10%(-475,000 ounces); due to the decrease in waste urging supply, the recycling supply will decrease by 11%(-217,000 ounces); The demand for automotive uranium has continued to increase, and it will increase by 14%(+376,000 plates); industrial platinum demand will be reduced by 15%(-375,000 plates), but it will still be the third high annual demand in history (2.132 million ounces); The demand in the investment field will be reduced by 520,000 plates, mainly the loss of platinum in ETF and exchanges.

It is estimated that in 2022, the market surplus is 974,000, which is higher than the prediction of 627,000 ounces in the previous quarter, 10%lower than last year. If the annualization of excess imports this year, China will completely digest the market surplus predicted by 2022. China is continuing to import platinum at a level that is far beyond its demand. In the first half of the year, excess imports show that China's total excess imports may reach 1.3 million ounces in 2022.

The World Platinum Association predicts that starting from 2023, there will be a shortage of platinum markets.Platinum promotes hydrogen by renewable sources, and can achieve more than 10%of carbon emission reduction targets. By 2040, platinum demand related to hydrogen may reach more than 30%of the total demand.More governments will join the development of the green hydrogen industry.The European Union plans to replace Russia's natural gas with green hydrogen, which will have a positive impact on platinum demand.The hydrogen energy in North America is planned to lag behind the other parts of the world, especially with China and Europe.

Although the economic prospects have slowed down, the demand for platinum in the fields of automobiles, jewelry and industries is strong. Self -limiting sales may exclude Russian raw materials outside the global market.Platinum spot markets continue to eat tightly. China's platinum imports may digest all the market surplus. The key role of platinum in global decarburization will promote long -term growth of platinum demand.These factors are conducive to the development of the platinum investment market.

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