Natural rubber prices bottom out to rebound.

Since September, the price of natural rubber has shown a trend of suppressing first and then, and staged bottoms have risen.

Does this mean that the natural rubber market will be completely reversed? Some insiders told the Securities Daily reporter that the current fundamental supply and demand pressure of the rubber industry is relatively high, the supply is stable and the demand is weak, and the natural rubber rising increase may continue to be continued.

Rubber fundamental

Not much change

In terms of the spot market, business data shows that the price of natural rubber from September 1st to 12th has fallen, of which natural rubber prices were maintained at 11706 yuan/ton on September 9th to September 12th, a record low. However, from September 13th to September 18th, the prices of natural rubber rose on the 6th consecutive day. On September 18, natural rubber reported to 12,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.37%from September 12.

In terms of futures market, the main futures futures price price began to climb after experiencing the previous shock. From September 8th to September 16th, the price of 6 consecutive trading days rose. As of September 16, the main futures price of rubber was reported at 13,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.77%over the beginning of the month.

During the Guohai Liang period, the cargo research report showed that the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much. First of all, the factors from the supply are very limited. Although there are many main producing areas in Southeast Asia recently, the price of glue in Thailand and Vietnam has stabilized, which has boosted the price of natural rubber. However, there is no obvious climate disturbance in the global peak production season. Secondly, the pattern of weak global demand has not changed. The overall demand for downstream tires is weak, but the performance of tires is acceptable, and the operating rate of the tire plant has returned to the normal median range of history. In terms of inventory, the current inventory pressure is not great, the inventory outside the bonded zone has increased slightly, and the inventory in the area has slightly raised.

除了前述东南亚部分主产区降水较多拉抬天然橡胶价格外，隆众资讯天胶行业分析师路宁在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，“最近天然橡胶连续上涨的另一原因可能是The market is expected to speculate on all latex production reduction. In the early stage of the market, the market demand for the international market is weak, emotional is very pessimistic, and the emotions of panic selling. As this sharpness gradually landed, the market panic selling situation has been eased, thereby promoting the recent natural rubber The price rises. "

Tire entering consumer off -season

The start rate is declining

On September 9, the data released by the China Automobile Association showed that in August, the production and sales of passenger vehicles completed 2.157 million and 2.25 million, respectively, a decrease of 2.4%and 2.3%respectively, an increase of 43.7%and 36.5%year -on -year, respectively. In August, the overall production and sales of the automobiles were good. Although it was affected by the management of electricity management, the overall year -on -year was growing rapidly. Since September, tires have gradually entered the off -season of consumption, and orders for foreign demand have dropped significantly.

Baocheng Futures stated that under the continuous efforts of passenger car purchase tax minus preferential policies, domestic car production and sales data in August was significantly better than expected. The demand for the downstream of the natural rubber market is expected to improve the expectations of the weak supply and demand structure.

According to Longzhong Information Data, as of the week of September 15, the operating rate of semi -steel tire sample companies was 57.9%, a decrease of 6.74%from the previous month; the operating rate of all steel tire sample companies was 47.98%, a decrease of 8.79%month -on -month.

According to the data of Galaxy Futures Report, the domestic all -steel tire inventory is closed for 46 days, and the semi -steel tire inventory is closed for 44 days. From the observation of data such as the number of vehicle production and sales, tire operating rate, and tire finished product inventory, semi -steel tires are significantly stronger than all steel tires for commercial vehicles due to the implementation of the policy of stimulating policies.

"Natural rubber rising market may not last long, but it will not fall below the early low position." Lu Ning said, "In September and October, the main rainwater in Natural Rubber in Southeast Asia is more rainy, which may cause natural rubber supply to supply The phase is tight and supports the market. In addition, the market is still in the market for the speculation of the entire latex reduction, and the total latex production will not be clear after October. Overall, the market price of natural rubber may be maintained in October in October. The state of slightly shocking. "

Baocheng Futures believes: "To develop from rebound to reversal, it needs to rely on the dual improvement of the macro surface and supply side. As the short -term Federal Reserve's interest rate hike approaching the peak season for the supply of rubber countries, it is expected that the price of rubber futures in the market outlook will continue to be stronger. resistance."

Our reporter Zhang Minmin

Learr reporter Liu Zhao

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