Each brand 100 index becomes the "avoiding the decline" beer sector leading the rise

After the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday this year, the A -share market was sluggish again. Only 4 trading days last week, the three major stock indexes fell across the board. Among them, the Shanghai index fell 4.16%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 5.19%, and the GEM index fell 7.10%.

Under this kind of market, every 100 index of the brand's 100 declines, the weekly decline is only 2.08%, and the three major stock indexes are greatly won.

Yang Jing drawing

Some securities firms said that last week's index adjustment was mainly the emotional release before the landing of the Fed's "interest rate hike boots" in September. It is not sustainable. In the context of the steady recovery of the domestic economy and the continuous implementation of the policy. Repair steadily.

Brand 100 Index Perfect Compression

Last week, the A -share shock adjustment was adjusted, and the three major indexes closed down, and the individual stock sector fell.

From the perspective of the market environment, the overall economic data of August has improved, and the national economy has continued to recover steadily, indicating that the effect of steady growth in the early stage has gradually emerged. The executive meeting of the State Council decided to extend the tax period, and it is expected that the policy will still be implemented to maintain the stable recovery of the national economy. On the overseas side, the level of US prices is not as good as expected, and the market's concerns about the Fed ’s re -rate hikes have obviously, causing disturbances to the global market.

In this context, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities fell sharply last week, and the GEM index fell 7.1%. The weekly decline was 2.08%, and the trend resisted.

In terms of funds, the net outflow of funds from the north last week was 6.088 billion yuan, of which 2.777 billion yuan was exported to the Shanghai city, and the net outflow of Shenzhen City was 3.311 billion yuan.

From the perspective of individual stocks, each of the 100 stocks of the brand fell more, and the consumer sector trended slightly. Among them, the beer sector led the rise, Qingdao Beer rose 4.6%, China Resources Beer rose 1.6%, ranking at the top of the increase list. The performance of Chinese stocks was slightly sluggish, Baidu fell more than 10%, and JD Group fell 8.38%, which affected the exponential performance. In terms of valuation, the average valuation of each brand 100 index is still less than 10 times, and the value is underestimated.

According to the analysis of Minsheng Securities, recently, the real estate market has ushered in many marginal improvement signals, including some new first -tier cities to purchase relaxation and Zhengzhou's "insurance delivery" measures. Drinks became one of the few "shelters".

The high -end pattern of the beer industry opens

Indeed, it is not difficult to see from the performance of each brand 100 index stocks last week that the consumer sector is recovering, and beer is the biggest highlight of the consumer field. Many institutions are optimistic about the future investment certainty and sustainability of the beer industry.

In the first half of this year, under the repeated invasion of the epidemic, the beer industry still achieved good results. The A -share beer sector revenue increased by 7.31%in the first half of the year, and the revenue achieved positive growth in the seventh consecutive quarter. Among them, the second quarter revenue increased by 6.88%in the second quarter, creating the highest revenue record in the single quarter. In the second half of the year, the output of beer in July increased by 10.8%year -on -year, which was accelerated from the previous month.

Galaxy Securities analysis said that the increase in beer production has increased from month -on -month, mainly due to demand repair+peak season+historic high -temperature weather in many places across the country. With the reduction of the impact of this round of epidemic and the recovery of per capita income, consumer confidence has also continued to increase, and demand is expected to further repair. The demand end of the peak season in the third quarter of this year may usher in systematically improved.

In addition to the rise and price of volume and price, the improvement of the quality of the beer industry and the opening of the high -end pattern is also one of the important reasons that stimulate the valuation of this sector.

It is understood that in 2019, the high -end beer has entered a new stage. The structure upgrade drives the acceleration of the ton price and the steady competitiveness of the competition. The contraction of the rate of income will become the core driver of income and profit growth. The demand side shows a diversified trend, the price is shifted, the sales of products below 6 yuan have declined, the price band of 6-9 yuan is steadily increased, the rise of domestic brands of more than 10 yuan, international brands go hand in hand, and the ultra -high -end products are strong.

According to Euro Rui data, it is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of sales above the mid -to -high -end (more than 7 yuan) will increase from 34%in 2021 to 40%. It is estimated that by 2024, the proportion of sales of Tsingtao, China Resources, heavy beer, and Yanjing mid -range and above is expected to increase significantly.

Guotai Junan said that the current prices of mainstream beer in my country are even lower than hot -selling soft beverages, and its absolute and relatively low prices make consumers' sensitivity to upgrading and price lifting. The compound growth rate of 5%to 6%lasted for 15 years. Therefore, my country's beer is still in the early stage of acceleration. In the future, as residents' income increases and the demand for differentiated beer quality and taste has emerged, my country's beer ton price has great room for improvement, and continuity is expected to be super beautiful. In terms of investment, under the joint drive of both the supply and demand ends, my country's beer structure upgrade space is large and the certainty is strong. The continuous improvement of the ton price is expected to drive a significant improvement in profitability and the continuous release of profits.

Two major leading international brands

At present, there are two major beer companies in each brand 100 index ingredients, namely China Resources Beer (HK00291, a stock price of HK $ 54, a market value of HK $ 175.2 billion) and Tsingtao Beer (SH600600, a stock price of 101.12 yuan, and a market value of 138 billion yuan). These two companies have been well -known in China. They are currently linked to a high -end strategy and contributed to international brands.

From the perspective of the market share of the beer industry, my country's first high -end beer brand is still Budweiser, accounting for 46.6%in 2018. The goal of China Resources Beer was the first in the domestic high -end beer market at the end of the 9th year of 2025. At present, the company's product structure has been upgraded. The company's secondary and above sales growth rate was higher than the overall. In 2021, it increased by 27.8%year -on -year, but it accounted for less than 17%of the total sales volume. The company's beer ton price rose from 1970 yuan in 2010 to 3020 yuan in 2021, which is still lower than the industry average. At present, the company uses new domestic brands and the introduction of Xili brand as the two main lines to centrally expand high -end product portfolios to enrich consumers' choices in beer categories and flavors. The company is preparing for the listing of dark El Beer, while actively developing new categories such as craft IPA and fruit beer, high -end product portfolios will be more diverse and segmented. After the recovery and strengthening of the dual -brand community and offline marketing, it is expected that the growth rate of high -end sales is expected to increase, which will completely break the low price image.

Tsingtao Beer has deeply cultivated the beer field for a century, and has maintained the first brand value of my country's beer industry for 19 consecutive years. Since 2009, the company has successively launched high -end product lines such as Augusto and Hongyun. Compared with the 8-9 years of competition companies, the company's ton price has reached 3742 yuan/liter in 2021. At present, the company has gradually diluted local brands and continuously highlights the core position of "Qingdao Main Brand+Laoshan Second Brand" nationalized brand portfolio. market. The continuous and clear brand architecture makes the high -end positioning of the main brand of "Qingdao Beer" gradually prominent.

Cinda Securities said that Tsingtao Beer is a century -old company with domestic beer brewing. It has a deep brand and excellent product quality. Its brand value is the third and first beer industry in my country. In the previous price war and channel wars, Tsingtao Brewery's advantages were not outstanding, but under the high -end dividend of the industry, Tsingtao Brewery is expected to use brand power+product power+channel power to shine on the performance side.

Daily Economic News

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