Crazy grapes: The price of the sun is really "the price collapse"?

It's not what I really want to pay attention to

Another "explosive" fruit price drop

But we cultivate

How far is the next "explosive" fruit

The grapes with two or three hundred yuan and one spike now become "affordable fruits" of less than 20 yuan per catty. The huge gap in the price has made the sunshine rose grapes that have been dominated for many years.

Sunshine roses have all the quality of becoming a "explosive" fruit: they can withstand long -distance transportation, long cold storage, and long shelf periods. With the maturity of the second quarter fruit cultivation technology in the Yunnan production area, it can ensure the supply of sunny roses in winter. Those who can see sunny roses on the shelves for at least 10 months of year.

But in fact, Sunshine Rose has gradually "dismissed" since 2016, and has gradually changed from a scarce fruit to a mass fruit. The most obvious identity of this identity conversion is the decline in the decline.

"In 2018, when I was close to the Spring Festival, I saw the Korean Sunshine Rose sold in the Shenzhen market. Each box of three spikes, the highest retail price is close to 10,000 yuan." Li Chunyu is the Deputy Secretary -General of the Hebei Grape and Wine Society. In China's promotion, he sighed to reporters. Now this scene is difficult to see, which is due to the improvement of domestic sun roses.

On August 26, a grape industrial park in Liuqiao Town, Huobei County, Huaibei, Anhui. The staff sorted and processed the newly picked boutique sun rose grapes in the cold storage of the logistics center. Figure/Zhongxin

From the perspective of the industry, decline in price is no longer news, but the inevitable result brought by supply and demand changes. However, unlike the slow decline in prices in previous years, the prices of sunlight roses in various places are generally significantly reduced this year, which has also made "sunshine roses diving" once again on the hot search.

Sunshine roses are typical samples of domestic boutique fruits on the "Internet Red Road" in recent years. Behind it, there are not only crazy wealth temptations, but also exposed the shortcomings of the Chinese boutique fruit cultivation model. From the perspective of the industry, it is not the falling price of another "explosive" fruit that really wants to pay attention to, but how far we are far from cultivating the next "explosive" fruit?

Planting area "crazy"

"In the past few years, the price of sunlight roses included a lot of speculation factors. When the promotion was started, some places in some places were even not even asking. From 2015 to 2016, it was the most popular period for the outside world. The sunshine rose wholesale price planted by the base is only 20 yuan/jin, and the price sold to consumers to consumers is only thirty or forty yuan per catty. "Tao Jianmin, a professor at Nanjing Agricultural University Horticultural College, told China News Weekly. The price of sunlight roses is still a bit high.

A person in an interviewed industry does not understand why the price of sunshine roses decline will become a hot spot. In his opinion, the more "sad" situation is everywhere in the domestic fruit and vegetable market. At 10 yuan 3 ~ 4 pounds, the price of Fuji Apple has always been bleak, but it may be accustomed to the public because of the bleak time for too long. "

In the memory of Guo Feng, the general manager of Yunnan Zhejiang and Yunnan Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., in the first half of this year, the price of sunshine roses did not fluctuate significantly compared to previous years.

"After the Spring Festival this year, until June, except for March and April, the" vacant period 'is not listed on the market without sunshine roses, and the price of sunlight roses has not dropped significantly, because the sunny roses listed during this period are more from Yunnan production. District, the number is limited. "Guo Feng told" China News Weekly "that after mid -July, the" large production area "sunlight roses have been listed one after another, and it is normal to decrease with the change of supply and demand.

The so -called "big production zone" refers to southern production areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Hubei. "In July, the" big production area '"promoting early cultivation varieties (referring to the use of plastic film, etc., artificially creating the appropriate conditions of grape growth and development, so as to achieve the grape varieties that are listed in advance) will be available. The lowest valley of the prices of sunlight roses is because the Sunshine Rose of the Large Made Area "will be listed in these two months." Wang Haibo, deputy director of the Fruit Tree Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told China News Weekly.

This can be partly explained why the price of sunlight roses will be between 15 yuan to 35 yuan per catty per catty in August and September. However, Wang Haibo predicts that the price of sunlight roses will rise in the fourth quarter. At that time, there were fewer sunlight roses entering the market. The advantages of the growers.

Behind the "big production area" sunlight roses in August and September, the price is the rapid growth area in China since 2016. Li Chunyu told "China News Weekly" that the output of sunlight roses rose rapidly in the short term, and the price decline was almost inevitable.

The "Analysis Report of China's Sunshine Rose Grape Industry in 2022" released by the Yunguo Industry Brain shows that in 2021, the national sunlight rose planting area was about 312,100 mu, and it was only 10,100 mu in 2016. Among them, Yunnan, Hunan, and Jiangsu ranked among the top three with 40,000 acres, 35,000 acres, and 30,000 acres.

However, the planting area of ​​312,100 mu has been "conservative" compared to the calculations of multiple respondents, and more domestic sunshine rose planting area given by more interviewees is 800,000 mu. "The domestic sun rose cultivation area has exceeded 800,000 acres, but when this variety has just received the public's attention a few years ago, the cultivation area was only 100,000 acres." Li Chunyu said. The popularity of sunlight roses can be seen from the price of sapling. "Last year's saplings were even difficult to buy. At the earliest time, it was only five or six yuan per tree. Last year, it had been fired to 20 to thirty yuan, or even higher." Tao Jianmin told reporters.

The wide distribution of sunshine roses in domestic production areas shows its strong adaptability. Under normal circumstances, some grape varieties may not bloom due to the lack of light in the south. Some varieties may be too low in winter due to the low temperature in the north, or in areas with more precipitation.

However, there are sunlight rose growers to reporters that the adaptability of sunlight roses is too strong. It is a very rare variety that can be planted safely in the north and south. The planting area is easy to "flood".

Speaking of the planting conditions of sunlight roses, Li Chunyu said that under normal circumstances, there are two factors that determine the quality of grapes. The more direct the amount of light irradiation, the stronger the soil breathability, and the more advantageous the quality of the fruits produced. "Specific to the sun roses, it is a slightly late variety. It is necessary to ensure that the fruit and the tree have sufficient development time, and the frost -free period should be long. . But the local sun roses are generally close to early October, and the local first snow is generally in early October. Therefore, the fruit trees are buried to prevent the cold when they do not complete the nutrient return.

In addition to the fact that the planting area is easy to "flood" due to strong adaptability, sunlight roses are also easy to "high yield".

"We often say that 'Tao Sanli Four', that is, peach trees and Li Tree generally enters the urgent period after 3 or 4 years, but the grapes from the construction of the garden to the high yield are very short. The seedlings are properly managed, and there will be good output in the second year. As a result, the output of sunlight roses can quickly rise in the short term. "Li Chunyu said.

The aforementioned Sunshine Rose growers said that for some grape varieties, growers often consciously control the production, because once the output is too high, the fruit may cause the fruit to be "not color", or fruits and rotten fruits. However, sunlight roses are yellow -green varieties, and there is no problem of coloring, and the risk of sunlight roses and rotten fruits is less than other varieties. Growers always unconsciously increase production.

"On the other hand, it also benefits from the rapid popularization of planting technology today. In the past, a certain variety entered China, and it took at least ten years to popularize planting technology. But now the information has spread rapidly. Planting experience is rapidly popularized. With this variety accepted in the market in 2015 and 2016, the domestic sunshine rose planting technology system in 2018 and 2019 will basically take shape. By 2020 and 2021, growers will generally master. " The grower said.

Wang Haibo estimates that the expansion process of the sun roses will slow, and the price of saplings may be less than 10 yuan/tree this year.

"Not only the sunshine roses have experienced such price fluctuations, other varieties have been relatively high after the market recognition has just been recognized. As the supply rises, the price will naturally decline. Even if the current wholesale price declines, the sunlight roses are compared to other grapes than other grapes. The variety also has an advantage. For example, Xinjiang's nuclear -free white wholesale price is seven or eight cents per catty, the red earth is about 1 yuan/catties, and Jifeng is about 2 yuan/jin. "Tao Jianmin said.

In other words, sunlight roses are still the best choice for grapes.

Sunshine rose temptation is still

"When the supply of sunshine roses rises, the market supply and demand relationship changes, and price changes are also inevitable." But Li Chunyu believes that "price changes" do not simply refer to price decline, but market hierarchy.

The price of high -end merchant ultra -medium -sized sunlight roses is still not low. The price of some growers in the sunlight garden is still above 60 yuan/catties, because its excellent quality can indeed meet the needs of high -end consumers. However, taking Hunan Yixian as an example, the general planting households are 4-6 yuan per catty of the price of sunlight roses.

"The same situation in Japan is the same. The Water of Kings and Earth is a fruit trademark certified by the Japanese Agricultural Association, but the sunshine roses of about 300,000 acres of Japan are not all the water of the Qing Dynasty and the earth." Li Chunyu told "China News Weekly", The output of special -grade fruits requires the production area to be an absolute eugenic area, and at the same time, at the same time, the level of guarantee facilities should be used at a high amount of investment, supplemented by high technical theoretical level and strict production operation processes. These conditions are often uncomfortable.

At present, the domestic sunshine rose market has a significant grading. In recent years, parks with higher shipments can still maintain high prices. These parks have formed their own brands, and the price is rarely affected by the overall market market, but it is not representative. More than a large number of growers produce a general product fruit, which can only be acquired by fruit merchants, and the price is accompanied by the market.

"The price of high -quality sunshine roses is still relatively strong. The company's Oriental Red One brand is about 60 yuan/catties for terminal consumers this year. Back, compared to previous years, has not declined, and the wholesale price is around 40 yuan/jin. "Guo Feng told reporters that the company has both self -operated e -commerce channels and will also be over -shipped by merchants. Among the many grape varieties, the benefits of sunlight roses are still high. The domestic grape industry has experienced the evolution of the four major varieties in the past 40 years. From the first generation of star varieties in the 1970s and 1980s, to the second generation of Red Earth, to the third -generation summer black, it is currently sunny roses. Guo Feng said that the income of Sunshine Rose is about double the other varieties.

Guo Feng began to plant sunlight roses in 2017. The next year, Sunshine Rose has occupied more than 80 % of the total vineyard. "This proportion may rise in the future, because the management of the sunlight roses is not particularly large, and the planting technology is already very mature."

"The planting cost of sunlight roses does not have a significant gap compared with other grape varieties. Putting off the depreciation of facilities, only calculate the remaining fixed investment. The investment of pesticides and fertilizers per mu is 5000 ~ 8000 yuan, and the labor cost investment of 3,000 ~ 5000 yuan is invested. The sunlight The additional cost of roses may be the cost of combing fruit. The price per ear combed this year has exceeded 1 yuan. Based on about 2500 ears per mu, the cost of combing fruit is 2500 ~ 3,000 yuan. Differences are generated. "Some growers explained to China News Weekly.

"Ensure that high quality will inevitably lead to a decline in yield. For example, the yield of 40 yuan/catties of sunny roses may only be about 3,000 catties, but the yield of sunshine roses with a unit price of 20 yuan/catties can reach more than 5,000 catties. The benefits are not much different, resulting in the differentiation of strategies between different growers. "Guo Feng said that this is also related to the consumer group. The differentiation between the brand and the non -brand may become clearer in the future.

Pursuing production or quality has become a choice for sunlight rose growers. Wang Haibo told "China News Weekly" that the wholesale price of sunlight roses in some production areas is less than 5 yuan/catties. If the output per mu is 6000 ~ 8,000 catties, the income per mu is 30,000 to 40,000 yuan, and some high -quality fruits per acre per acre The investment is 30,000 to 40,000 yuan.

But even for growers who are pursuing production, the benefits of sunlight roses are still tempting.

In Li Chunyu's view, even if the wholesale price is only 5 yuan/jin, the sun roses are still attractive to small -scale growers. "Simply calculate a account, the output of Sunshine Rose growers in Laoshan County, Hunan, is generally high. 5,000 catties per mu is a relatively conservative estimate. The cost control, pesticide, fertilizer and other costs are not high, which can be generally ensured that the net profit of more than 10,000 yuan per acre can be guaranteed. "

Therefore, even if the price enters the downward channel, the expansion of the sun roses is still underway. The Yong vineyard of Yancheng, Yancheng, Jiangsu is the earliest batch of vineyards grown in sunlight roses in China. Earlier this year, the owner Liu Shoulong dug out the last 30 acres of summer black grapes in the garden. More than five times the benefits.

Zhu Yifeng, President of Zhejiang Grape Association, also said that before the rise of sunlight roses, the Jiaxing grape industry was "vine", "Red Earth" and "Drunk Golden Fragrance". 5. The mature grapes in June are almost all changed to mature sunshine roses after August.

"The total area of ​​grape cultivation in China is 12 million mu, which is the world's second largest grape cultivation country, but the output of fresh grapes ranks first in the world. It has statistically significant significance, but it has not exceeded 1 million acres. It is not considered a large variety. The planting area of ​​the giant peaks, Xiahei, Red Earth and other varieties far exceeded 1 million acres. Therefore There is still room for growth. "Li Chunyu's prediction is relatively optimistic.

He believes that the expansion of the planting area of ​​the sun in the future depends on the two factors. One is the price trend of general commodity fruits, and the other is the impact of the national non -grain policy. "Now that you want to use the large -scale construction of ordinary agricultural land to build orchards, it is almost difficult to achieve. In a sense, the country is already helping economy crops to limit production."

"Beginning 3 years ago, there was a voice in China to discuss whether the sunlight rose would be excess, but in fact, to this day, the" excess "is still far away." Guo Feng also believes that the future sunlight roses will further suppress other grape varieties, because the quality is indeed true Occasionally than other varieties, such as Red Earth and Summer City, the share of the market will be further reduced.

Where to find the next "explosion"

In addition to the decline in prices, many consumers feel that the taste of sunlight roses is not as good as before, or it is not very stable.

Tao Jianmin believes that on the one hand, consumers believe that the taste of sunshine roses is no longer fresh. "It's like today's Fuji Apple's point of view from the beginning of the 1980s and 1990s, but people are familiar with their taste. There is a sense of freshness. "

When the output rises, the quality of the sunshine rose is uneven.

Tao Jianmin told "China News Weekly" that agricultural products are different from industrial products. Even if standards exist, there are problems with the production of growers according to standards. For example, it is recommended to be 1.5 catties per lot of sun roses, which can reach 15 yuan/jin The household may think that two pounds per ear, as long as the price of 10 yuan/jin is available. The output is often related to quality. "While lack of standards in China, there is a lack of controlling a standard system. Most of the farmers in Japan have joined the Agricultural Association. After the farmers produce agricultural products, the agricultural associations are rated and sold, and then settled to the farmers, but China is settled, but China Without such production organizations that cover the country, there are no strong constraints on growers. "Some people in the industry told reporters that they would make simple grades such as first -level and secondary fruits on sunshine roses at the time of acquisition.

In Guo Feng's view, the domestic knowledge of the quality of sunlight is still slightly rough. Compared to Japan, it is more difficult to make fruit brands in China. The standardization of Japanese brands has accumulated for many years and meticulously pursue the depth and fineness of standards. For example, one of the "Qing King" selling standards is more than 14 grams of fruit grains and 18 % of the primer.

He further explained that in fact, some domestic vineyards produced sunlight roses can also meet the high standards of Japan, but more growers and consumers will still be misled, resulting in the high standards of sunshine roses that can meet Japan. China sells well. "For example, the particles of sunlight roses, 10 grams to 15 grams are already very good, belong to the best quality, but the larger quality in China often thinks that the larger the better, the better, the more hollow, and the quality decline. For example The fragrance lacks the criteria for judging, it is difficult to represent its quality, and it needs to take into account the aroma of roses. "

In addition to the relatively rough standards, Li Chunyu told reporters that the problem of degradation of Sunshine roses in the country has existed objectively. In particular, the development of sunlight roses is not long. It belongs to a relatively young variety. In the process of expanding, there must be a risk of gene degeneration. In countries with relatively developed agricultural levels such as the United States and Japan, they pay great attention to the maintenance of variety traits. Every time after a period of time, the breeding materials will be retracted from the most stable mother tree and expanded. There is still a small gap in China.

"The seedlings of sunlight roses are actually very simple, that is, the bud grafting from the result tree is taken to the rootstock. There is an objective probability of mutation, and most of the mutations are degraded mutations. Therefore To a large number of degraded buds. "Li Chunyu said that from another perspective, there is a mutation of degradation mutations. Screening the mutations from progress, thereby further improved the quality and transformed the planting area into an advantage.

Tao Jianmin also believes that there is still room for improvement in sunlight roses, which is not perfect. "Japanese breeding experts have also come to China for exchanges."

Many interviewees believe that before the fifth -generation "explosive" grapes appear, sunshine roses will still be the main force. But the question is whether the next "explosion" still comes from abroad?

In fact, there are no grapes in the China -Japan agricultural product trade access list. Some sunlight roses that appear in the domestic market. It is impossible for the sun roses under the "Qing King" brand to come from Japan, but the variety of sunshine roses comes from Japan. Sunshine Rose was cultivated by the Institute of Fruit Tree Sciences in Japan in 1988. It was officially released in 2003 after 15 years of trial, observation and improvement, and was officially registered in 2006.

Scholars of the Zhengzhou Fruit Tree Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences have statistics in the papers published in 2018. Since 2000, China has introduced more than 310 species of grapes from abroad. Various varieties are mostly used for fresh food.

This paper also put forward suggestions to encourage officials and folk channels to quote, accelerate the pace of species and increase the number of categories, set up long -term foreign species of special funds, and mobilize the enthusiasm of the species.

But the introduction of new varieties from Japan in the future may become more and more difficult. In April 2021, the revision of the Japanese seedlings was officially effective to prevent excellent varieties from flowing overseas, with the goal of achieving agricultural exports to 5 trillion yen in 2030. Subsequently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Aquatic Products of Japan released a total of 1975 agricultural products that were banned to overseas, including Sunshine Roses.

The revised seedling method is precisely because of the large -scale planting of sunlight roses in China and South Korea. Although the Japanese side applied for the protection of local intellectual property in 2006, the Japanese side did not complete the registration and protection of overseas varieties within the prescribed period.

Tao Jianmin was considered by some people to introduce sunlight roses into China from Japan. He told "China News Weekly" that it is not the key to introduce this variety to China. Things. Because the varieties cultivated in Japan did not apply for patent protection in China, patent protection cannot be provided from the government's perspective. "

"After Japan's Sunshine Rose, it did not apply for intellectual property protection overseas. Therefore, there is no problem with the introduction of planting in China that year. Of course, I also want to thank the Japanese agricultural scientists who have cultivated this variety." You need to come back to breed a bud.

A lot of "explosive" fruits from China come from Japan. For example, the previous generation of "explosive" grape summer black, and the familiar Fuji apples were born in Japan in 1939. Wang Haibo told "China News Weekly" that grapes, apples, and citrus are more from foreign varieties. The situation of Tao and Pear is relatively good. "These varieties themselves are foreign varieties. From the perspective of historical dimensions, the time for domestic cultivation is compared to compared Short. In addition, the policy support for fruit breeding is also relatively small. The state supports more of the research and development and funding of breeding more. In recent years, it has more improved. It is mainly due to the launch of the national modern agricultural industry technology system. "

Different from large field crops, some fruits have longer breeding cycles. Gong Ronggao, deputy dean of the Horticulture School of Sichuan Agricultural University, said in an interview with sweet cherry, as an example, as an example, the breeding cycle usually needs more than ten or even 20 years.

Wang Lirong, a researcher at the Institute of Fruit Tree Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the head of the National Park Art Extraction Resource Library, said that according to the analysis of the proportion of the tree cultivation area and different sources of varieties, it is found that the local varieties, domestic breeding varieties, and introduced varieties abroad respectively. 30 %, 30 % and 40 %. Although the market share of autonomous varieties in jujube and peaches is more than 80 %, the market share of foreign categories such as apples and grapes has reached 50 % to 90 %. In particular, the Fuji apple varieties originally in Japan have 80 % of the domestic planting area.

Cao Yongsheng, director of the Fruit Tree Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, admitted in an interview that at present, the main planting varieties of some fruit trees in my country still need to rely on "import", and there are problems such as low proportion of independent intellectual property types. In the basis of the high -level protection and high -quality utilization of fruit tree species, my country's focus should promote the development and breakthrough or major varieties of fruit trees efficient breeding technology.

Send 2022.9.19 Total Issue 1061 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: Crazy grapes

Reporter: Chen Weishan ([email protected])

Edit: Min Jie

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

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