The total value of imports and exports in Guangdong has fallen to less than 20%. Experts say that "it is normal"

Economic Observation Network reporter Zhang Rui, Guangdong's total import and export, accounted for the continued decline in the country's proportion. Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released data showing that as the 36-year-old "largest foreign trade province" Guangdong, from January to July this year, the total import and export of imports and exports accounted for 19.5%. Among them, in July, the total import and export of Guangdong accounted for 18.1%of the country.

Combined with the past data of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the total import and export of Guangdong's foreign trade accounted for the proportion of the country. In 1994, Zeng reached a historical high of 40%. Before the epidemic, it accounted for 22.6%in 2019. %.

On September 18, Chen Bo, executive director of the Research Center of the Free Trade Zone of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, accepted an interview with the Economic Observation Network that if you only look at the monthly data of July, short -term fluctuations do not represent major problems in a certain area. The main reason is that epidemic control and export structure are affected by seasonality.

For example, he said that in the fourth quarter is the Western consumer season, so the Yangtze River Delta may be shipped in large quantities in the third quarter, such as "Yiwu Small Products", which may cause more exports of Yangtze River Delta in the third quarter. In contrast, in addition to clothing, shoes and socks, it is more likely to be electronic products, and there is not such a strong seasonal data fluctuation.

"We talk about short -term fluctuations, so there will be no obvious effect on the long term." Chen Bo said.

Wei Frey, deputy director of the New Energy and Low -Carbon Development Research Center of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development and Research Institute, told reporters from Economic Observation Network that as the forefront of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province is the earliest and fastest development provinces in my country. At the same time, with the development process of reform and opening up, other provinces have gradually developed, and it is normal for the total proportion of imports and exports in Guangdong Province to start to decline.

He also pointed out that although the total imports and exports in Guangdong Province are still growing, the growth rate has been significantly lower than the national level (the total import and export of Guangdong Province increased by 2.4%from January to July 2022, and the national growth was 10.4%). He believes that the cause of this result can be attributed to two aspects. On the one hand, the impact of the repeated impact of the epidemic, on the other hand, is the inevitable result of the industrial transformation of Guangdong Province in the background of a new round of industrial transfer in the world.

Among them, in terms of industrial transfer and transformation, from the perspective of factor costs, compared with domestic central and western regions or Southeast Asian countries, Guangdong Province has no advantage. The original labor -intensive industry in Guangdong Province has long begun to move outward. In recent years, the Sino -US trade friction has further accelerated this process.

"However, the industrial toughness of Guangdong Province is very strong, and the slowdown in foreign trade growth does not mean that economic growth will slow down." Weverle believes that although foreign trade has always been an engine of Guangdong's economic growth, in the process of industrial transfer, Guangdong Province's in Guangdong Province Industry is also transforming, especially the industries in the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area are upgrading to the upstream of the industrial chain and high -precision links. In addition, the main goals of the products produced by companies in these areas are not exports, but import substitutions.

According to data from the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, from 2022 to July, the province's manufacturing investment increased by 19.0%, of which high-tech manufacturing investment increased by 36.8%and advanced manufacturing investment increased by 27.6%.

"The industrial development momentum of Guangdong Province is still strong." Weverley said.

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