The highlight next week, paying attention to this position -Daida dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, the A -share market has been adjusted continuously. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen by more than 4%. Not only did the main index adjust sharply, there are different sectors every day to lead the decline. On Tuesday, it is CRO, new energy on Wednesday, and a broker on Friday. It drives the entire market to be emotional, and it is difficult for the sector to protect the disk to form a joint force.

So, how to look at the current adjustment? Where is the market adjustment? What do you need to pay attention to? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, Da Ge. The market this week is really speechless. The three trading days of this week have continued to decline. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index directly fell below the platform, reminiscent of the scene in April this year. I don't know how Dago thinks of the adjustment today? Where is the market adjustment?

Daida: We discussed the market situation together a few weekends, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is almost consistent with the prediction. Now reviewing this adjustment and conducting objective evaluations, this kind of pressure gradually evolved to large -level adjustments The typical trend structure has the significance of textbooks. It is not only suitable for index, but also for individual stocks. It is worth learning repeatedly.

The decline in the market for three consecutive trading days is really easy to think of the scenes in the first few months of this year, but the situation in the market is completely different from the time. The decline in the first few months of this year is even more urgent. A large number of trading disks have rapidly flowing out, and the funds on the north will be withdrawn rapidly. But now in the pattern of weak recovery, the relatively loose environment has not changed.

As for the pressure of overseas shrinkage and overseas situations, these are not what we can predict. To do transactions is simple, it is not necessary to use the news that even economists cannot judge to guide the transaction. Look at the trend, look at the trend, identify emotions, etc., and use rules to guide transactions, but can easily respond.

Let's talk about the situation in the middle period. Before Dago's point of view was that the broader market had shocked for more than two months. Once this shock was over, the probability would be released. After choosing, follow it. Judging from the current situation, the market is walking step by step.

In the notes of Thursday, my point of view is that there are more disadvantaged fluctuations near the front low, but the market situation on Friday exceeds the expectations, and directly falls below the low point of the previous box shock. Although the market has gone weakly, there is no possibility of continuing continuous frustration without particularly negative conditions. Under normal circumstances, it is still a bit shocking.

Judging from the small -level structure of the index, the market may rebound in a short period of time in the first half of the week. It should be noted that even if it is a rebound, we can only treat it as a weak anti -pumping. As long as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index does not effectively pull back and stands above 3170 points, there is a risk of continuing to weaken. Before the disadvantaged anti -pumping, it needs to be cautious.

It is also necessary to be careful of a very confusing trend, that is, the index is a small -level box shock near the front low, which is easy to make people step on the pit. In addition, due to the continuous decline in the market, if a rebound occurs, this short -term rebound may have explosive power, and it is easy for investors to forget risks.

On the weekend, Dago returned to the overseas market by the way. In comparison, the performance of the A -share market was better. The main indexes of US stocks and European stocks are one step away from the new lows this year.

If the global stock market can be released, the future opportunities for the A -share market will be better in this process. We must continue to wait for the time being, keep patient, and do not blindly copy it; even if the market really goes out of the trend, it can be slower. urgent. As for whether to participate in the short -term rebound, it depends on whether there is a diamond diamond, and you have to lighten up.

Dr. Niu: From the perspective of this week's market, there are popular sections every day to lead the decline, such as CRO, new energy, etc., even the recent relatively stable real estate sector has not stabilized on Friday. On the contrary, domestic software and mobile payment performed well on Friday. What should I think of this phenomenon?

Daida: Every day, there are hot spots to lead the decline. Some of them are affected by the news. The trend of brokerage stocks is disappointing. The securities sector is a sector that affects the market direction. Some brokerage stocks have fallen by nearly 14%on Friday. It is still iconic.

What needs to be explained is that for the stocks with a relatively high level and good liquidity, be careful of risks.

The real estate sector should have been stable recently, and the real estate industry has been continuously favorable recently, and it has also plummeted on Friday. Moreover, these banks that can be protected in the market do not hold the index, and the funds have no effort at all. It can only be said that the market is too weak. The real estate sector index needs to be retracted immediately, otherwise it will weaken.

Software services are relatively active on Friday. There are five stocks of stocks, which are mainly stimulated by the "Network Security Law" to usher in the first revision. Recently, the software service sector shakes horizontally and has no clear direction. Let's wait and see for the time being. Don't take progress.

The stocks of the Bei Stock Exchange are also more active, but they are not very significant, because most retail investors are not qualified to participate, but it shows that the funds on the venue cannot be found for the time being. The continuity of the sector market and the number of stocks in daily limit can be used as an observation market indicator. It is not worth participating in a directional value. The core factor is to make money. Only by making money well, can we attract more people and funds to enter the venue when they continue to get positive feedback.

However, once the effect of making money is weakened, whether it is chasing up or low -absorbing, whether it is value investment or short -term speculation, it will choose to leave the field after discovering that you do not make money.

Dr. Niu: There are several important news this weekend. For example, some media reports are close to the central bank people say that the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable. How can my country be interpreted in 2025 or starting space travel?

Daeda: According to the CCP, close to the central bank people recently stated that the RMB exchange rate has maintained basic stability and strong support and solid foundation. By -way floating is the norm, and there will be no "unilateral cities." In this regard, Da Ge has not wanted to say more. It can be regarded as a stable signal, and the stability of exchange rates is good for the stock market.

In comparison, the upcoming global central bank week may be more concerned about next week. First of all, on September 20, the domestic quotation interest rate (LPR) of the one -year and 5 -year loan market in China will be announced; secondly, on September 21, the Fed will announce the September interest rate resolution, Powell will hold a press conference; followed by then It is the resolution of interest rates in other countries in Asia and Europe.

The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will gradually be clearer with Powell's speech. The current general expectation is that the Fed will raise interest rate hikes 75 basis points next week. For the trend of U.S. stocks next week, more importantly, Powell's statement and the "dotmine" showed interest rate hikes. If the last two FOMC meetings will continue at least 50 basis points of interest rate hikes during the year, it is expected that the Fed will have a big discussion on the upper limit of interest rate hikes in the Fed.

Yang Yiqiang, the first chief commander of the "Long March 11" Rockets, recently said that in 2027, the "spring" of Chinese commercial aerospace will come. Space travel can be divided into three types. The first is to enter the space station; the second is the "white knight" represented by the Virgin Galaxy to bring tourists into space through the double -five air -carrying aircraft; the third is the currently mature sub -orbit travel, suitable for suitable for the current mature sub -orbital travel, suitable for suitable Most people. With the improvement of the business model, in 2025, China is expected to start a sub -rail trip.

Yang Yiqiang said that investment hotspots are still rockets and satellites. But in fact, the number of companies related to rockets and satellites is enough, and head companies have already appeared. The continuous influx of capital will cause internal consumption of these companies. Therefore, I suggest that the capital party can focus more on the upstream on the upstream ones. Supply chain (such as engines, components, etc.) and downstream satellite applications (such as navigation, remote sensing, etc.). Because there will be no good system integration products without excellent supply chain products.

This news is good for aerospace and can be observed in phase. When the market is weak, it will not be ruled out that the new themes will be speculated, but it is currently limited to hype. Specific satellite communication can be referred to.

In general, the current big background of the A -share market is still weak. This environment itself is a difficult stage. Investors with heavy positions can only try to make T to relieve stress. You don't have to think about trading every day, to copy the bottom. Waiting is also an essential quality of qualified investors.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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