Gao Shanwen has just spoken, and the situation of A shares is very rare!"Big Smart" has 33 billion yuan in the market. A research report has exploded globally. The market logic has changed?

The long -term logic of the market may change!

In the past month, the total market value of US stocks plummeted by nearly 6 trillion US dollars (equivalent to more than 40 trillion yuan). The reason behind this may be not just as simple as raising interest rates. Recently, the well -known analyst of Credit Swiss Zoltan Polzsar wrote an extremely important article to analyze the essence of the existing world order and the response strategies to the United States and the West. In this article, ZOLTAN POLZSAR pointed directly at the essence of American inflation and its long -term nature.

During the same period, there was also a large drop in the A -share market. However, it is surprising that during the past month, US stocks have fallen, and relatively smart funds such as A shares have continued to bottom out. In the past month The funding funds may be as high as 33 billion yuan. Just now, Gao Shanwen posted on his WeChat public account that although the short -term direction was full of uncertainty, the current market is already at a significant level.

Gao Shanwen

In recent years, Gao Shanwen, an economist who has a great influence on this market, has not spoken much. But in this special day, Gao Bo once again published an article entitled "Where does the market come from and where to go in 2022"?

Gao Shanwen pointed out in the text that the Chinese capital market in 2022 is like a wonderful thriller. The plot is ups and downs, and it is expected, but carefully, the development process is reasonable, making the audience want to stop. Near the late autumn, how should we look back and reflect on the market context this year, and inspire?

Based on available data, we already know that in 2022, China's residents have a wide range of contraction of the balance sheet, and its changes have not seen for many years. Specifically, on the one hand, the savings rate of the residents increased by more than 3 percentage points in 2022, which accompanied by the deceleration of consumption and the significant decline in optional consumption; While reducing liabilities, it has greatly reduced the holdings of risk assets such as stocks and real estate, and systematically increased the allocation of low -risk assets such as deposits and currency funds.

Compared to disposable income, in the sense of capital flow, the adjustment of these asset categories has several times more than the increase in resident savings. In other words, the residents not only allocate all the increase in savings to the deposit subjects, but also greatly reduced their holdings and real estate subjects, and converted the income funds to the deposit account. From a macro perspective, this explains the abnormal performance of the market to a large extent, that is, in the context of no obvious liquidity tightening, the market has continued to decline greatly, which is very rare in history.

Gao Shanwen pointed out that with the increasing competition between China and the United States in the technology field, based on the principles of autonomous, safe and controllable, relying on the new national system and oversized domestic markets, the government is increasing the investment and research of key technologies and core components in order to keep in order The development of the military industry and electric vehicles is reference. The impact of these changes on industrial upgrading will undoubtedly need further attention from the market.

Judging from these discussions, it seems that although the short -term direction is full of uncertainty, the current market is already at a significant low level, and in the long run, the experience must be returned to a reasonable and higher level. The re -expansion of the balance sheet and the corporate sector continued to maintain the competitiveness and creativity shown in the past years.

These situations also once again show that maintaining residents, enterprises and financial institutions with strong balance sheets, strengthen the stability, continuity and predictability of the macro policy framework and economic system, flexibly and pragmatic adjustment to respond to various internal and external impacts in response to various internal and external impacts This constitutes a solid foundation of the economic and capital market with a strong toughness, and it is worth thinking about market participants.

Another report that affects global

Before Gao Bo released the above, there was another influential report that came from Swiss credit analyst ZOLTAN POLZSAR. In this article, he analyzed the essence of the existing world order and the response strategies that the United States and the West will adopt. This is part of ZOLTAN POLZSAR's continuous constructing work on the Bretton Forest Three System, and has a huge influence on Wall Street and even the global financial market.

He pointed out that the global supply chain is the cornerstone of the so -called low inflation and high growth world we have experienced over the years. There are three pillars of this system:

First, a large number of cheap immigration workers enter the United States to lower the name of the United States, which has caused the wages of American workers to grow in a stagnation state;

Second, in the state of stagnation of nominal wages, the cheap goods made in China increase the purchasing power of actual salary;

Third, cheap Russian energy provides raw materials for Germany and even wider European industrial systems, maintaining Europe's competitiveness and living standards.

But two of them are disintegrated or facing disintegration. He believes that under this background, a large "L" shape recession needs to be formed to suppress inflation. It is necessary to promote a round of negative wealth effects to suppress consumer demand, so that the consumer surface can match the new reality of the supply surface.

This research report is not only widely circulated abroad, but also sought after by market participants in China. Judging from the logic of the research report, the US stock market may face long -term logic to reshape, and the interest rate hike cycle and decline cycle may exceed market expectations. This may be the main reason for the recent continued killing of U.S. stocks. Retreat and bottom

In the past month, US stocks have evaporated nearly $ 6 trillion. In this process, we have seen more and more investment phenomena that everyone evacuated around the world. For example, Cai Chongxin almost cleared all US stocks, Buffett was evacuated from BYD, and Qiaoshui cleared Tesla. The assets of the big brothers may be more as a consideration of the supply chain, or it may be a consideration of risks.

However, as Gao Shanwen said, the A -share market may be at a significant low level. In the past month, the A -share ETF has increased a total of 22 billion copies, and the amount may reach 33 billion yuan.

CICC believes that looking forward to the prospects of China's A -shares, the market valuation has been low, and the continuous shrinkage of transactions indicates that the market sentiment is also close to the extreme level of the historical interval; Seek stability as a whole, then seek progress, pay attention to maintaining flexibility, grasping the rhythm of the market, and focusing on structure. In terms of configuration, low valuation and stable growth related sectors still have relatively performance; the weak growth style may continue for a period of time.

Responsible editor: tactics

School pair: Gaoyuan

- END -