Real estate policy is good and steadily entered A shares: fundamentals search for consensus institutions to outline the trend of industrial chain allocation

21st Century Business Herald reporter Lei Chen Beijing report

Affected by policy recovery, the real estate sector performed well during the year.

According to statistics from the 21st Century Business Herald, the real estate sector (CITIC First -level Industry Classification) has performed well since the beginning of the year, and the decline is only 2%. It has a significant winning market and ranks 4th among the 30 industry sections.

In nearly 30 trading days, the real estate sector rose 8.6%.

Many interviewed brokerage analysts said that the main reason for the strong performance of the real estate sector during the year is that the real estate market policy has continued to recover, and the effectiveness of the property market policy has gradually emerged. The current real estate market is at the bottom stage. The performance of the market is expected to be more positive.

According to the reporter's understanding, the organization also starts from the fundamental aspect and is actively seeking the opportunity to configure the relevant industrial chain.

Stable real estate policy continues to increase

Recently, the real estate industry policies have blown frequent winds.

According to statistics from third -party institutions such as Kerrui, since this year, more than 240 provinces and cities have exceeded 650 policies. During the year, 36 cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, 65 cities relax loans, 21 cities relax sales, and 104 cities have stabilized the market through fiscal, tax (subsidy, tax reduction).

Recent policy advancement has been further increased. For example, on August 24th, the National Frequently allowed local "one city and one policy" to use credit policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs.

In addition, LPR has lowered the decline in the interest rate of mortgages, and the multi -city loan restriction policy is relaxed. Many ministries and commissions have pushed the special borrowings of policy banks. Zhengzhou, Nanning, Hubei and other places have set up special bailout funds to make every effort to "keep the property and stabilize the people's livelihood".

On the other hand, policy supports high -quality real estate companies to issue credit increase or guarantee bonds to help housing companies restore normal credit capabilities. Typical private enterprises have recently decreased to no more than 4%.

On September 14, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Construction publicly stated that the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development will work together with relevant departments to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market from four aspects: first, adhere to the positioning of "housing housing does not speculate"; second, improve the housing market system and The housing security system; the third is to strive to achieve the goal of stable price, housing prices, and expected expectations; fourth is to improve the four factors linkage mechanisms of "people's housing money", with people setting up houses, housing land, and house money.

"Timely introduction of policies allows the real estate market to restore smooth development. In the future, it will also allow real estate to better play its own industrial role under the premise of stabilizing the real estate market and housing. It is expected to meet the people's pursuit of a better life. "Xie Haoyu, chief analyst of Guotai Junan Real Estate, said in an interview with reporters.

In his opinion, since this year, although the real estate market has declined to a certain extent, it has also caused some risk problems. At present, the risk events that have attracted attention have been properly resolved, and the real estate market has begun to see a good job. Signal.

Another chief analyst at the first -headed securities firm also told reporters that the entire policy trend is very clear, but market restoration really requires certain confidence.

It emphasized that "the current real estate market is at the bottom stabilization, and gradually becomes a good inflection point."

The fundamentals of the property market stabilize and improve

Judging from the latest data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in August was -22.6%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from July, and the market was stabilized at the bottom. At the same time, the relaxation of core regulatory policies such as Ningbo and other cities in the near future is expected to lead the secondary policy of relaxation policies nationwide.

Signs of real estate financing recovery are also worthy of attention.

According to the aforementioned analysts, in terms of industry in place, the growth rate of funds in August was -21.7%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from July. All funds, including domestic loans, self -funded funds, deposits and pre -collection, and personal mortgage loans, have narrowed the monthly single month, of which domestic loans have improved the most significantly.

Founder Securities Report on September 12 showed that in August, both in -site and off -balance sheet financing data improved.

Among them, although the residents Sino-Long Loan increased by 160.1 billion yuan year-on-year, the decline was small since this year. Compared with the year-on-year decrease of 248.8 billion yuan, the decline in April to May is more than 330 billion yuan. The degree of shrinkage is significantly relieved.

The above research report shows that in August Credit Launch, in addition to the significant acceleration of credit, the high increase in off -balance sheet financing was very eye -catching.

In August, the total increase of loans, trust loans, and non -discount bank acceptance bills increased by 476.8 billion yuan, the highest since March 2017. Among them, the entrusted loan increased by 175.5 billion yuan, an increase of 157.8 billion yuan year -on -year; the unscheduled bank acceptance bills increased by 348.5 billion yuan, an increase of 335.8 billion yuan; trust loans fell slightly.

According to the incomplete statistics of the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, as of the early August, over 90 cities have moderately relaxed the housing provident fund loan policy. Important driver of growth.

The research report pointed out that the non -discount bank acceptance bills and bill financing increased at the same time. In August, corporate deposits increased by 955.1 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 394.3 billion yuan. It is difficult to say that corporate cash flow is tight. It reflects that the high increase in the unscakey bank acceptance bill in August is not from the promotion of corporate needs.

In addition, according to the above -mentioned research report, considering the compact promotion of the policy of paying in August, the high increase of unscayed bank acceptance bills may point to the improvement of financing of housing enterprises. Therefore, real estate -related financing, whether it is a demand -side buyer or a supply -side real estate company, shows signs of improvement in August.

Real estate stocks and industrial chain allocation

From the perspective of historical data, real estate fundamentals are often synchronized with the stock market. In other words, the real estate is stable.

Generally speaking, the relaxation of real estate policies drives up real estate stocks, and then the industry's fundamentals will be repaired to drive the valuation of the real estate industry chain. At the same time, at the stage of stabilizing the basic aspect of the real estate industry, the profit restoration of the real estate industry chain often has greater elasticity.

Judging from the two rounds of real estate cycles from 2006 to 2009, 2013-2016, the trend relationship between the Chinese real estate market and the stock market has generally present a relatively synchronized relationship.

That is to say, the fundamentals and prosperity of the real estate market are facing a good stage, and it is often accompanied by the increase in the overall valuation level of the stock market.

The main reason is that during a round of real estate cycles, monetary policy often plays an important role in the stabilization and recovery stage of the property market, and the looseness of the liquidity environment will also stimulate the stock market rise. As a result, the property market and the stock market will fluctuate in a cycle around the fundamental fundamentals.

At the same time, mechanisms such as wealth effects and credit expansion effects will further enlarge this relationship.

The aforementioned analyst also believes that under the blessing of the policy, the current real estate fundamentals are stabilizing. The industry is expected to get out of the previous dilemma and drive the overall economy to recover. It will also provide support for the upward A -share market.

At the same time, with the recovery of real estate, the real estate upstream and downstream industrial chain has greater investment opportunities.

As we all know, the real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, and its impact on the upstream and downstream industry chain is far -reaching. It affects the upstream steel, non -ferrous, building materials, construction, machinery and other industries, as well as home appliances, furniture, decoration and other industries after the completion of the downstream.

At present, the valuation of the real estate industry is still at a relatively low level, and the real estate industry chain is basically in this state. The above analysts predict that if the real estate sector and the industrial chain can be stabilized, according to the macroeconomic and liquidity, it will support the market.

From the perspective of the development space of the industrial chain, on the one hand, although the current urbanization of China has slowed down, it is still continuing. On the other hand, the people's pursuit of a good life continues, and the demand for real estate in my country is still in improvement. During the process.

Based on this, analysts believe that the current valuations of the real estate industry chain sectors such as buildings, home appliances, home, building materials, and property management are all in a relatively low history. As the real estate industry stabilizes and strengthens, the profitability of corporate profits has been repaired upward. The rise in space and stock prices will also be more flexible.

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