Zheng's eyes look at the market | exchange rate and stock market adjustment defense is mainly defense.

This week is the first trading week after the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday. There are only 4 trading days from Tuesday to Friday. The two days before the first two days, the performance was quite stable, but it fell sharply on Thursday and Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.16%to 3126.40 points throughout the week. The weeks of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM folds were 5.31%and 6.41%, respectively, and the 50 index of science and technology fell 3.41%.

In the first few days of this week, financial stocks performed well, but it fell a lot on Friday, especially Eastern Fortune and other brokerage stocks. However, overall perspective, traditional industries or "old track" stocks including finance, liquor, electrical appliances, real estate, etc. this week are slightly better. "Circuit" stocks mostly plummeted. Taking the largest or most representative stocks of the new and old Taoism as an example, Guizhou Maotai () fell 0.77%throughout the week, and Ningde Times () fell 9.34%.

The depreciation of the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is obviously one of the important pressures of A shares. The four major banks on Wednesday announced on Wednesday that the personal deposit interest rate was also one of the pressure on the exchange rate of the local currency. From Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the US dollar has risen due to the exception of the country's CPI. Since then, the RMB has depreciated significantly, "Breaking 7" on Thursday. By Friday, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB depreciated further, but in the evening, it appreciated significantly and returned to 7, and finally reported to 6.9977 to $ 1.

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The added value of industries above designated size in my country on Friday morning increased by 4.2%year -on -year, an increase of 3.8%higher than July, and an expected increase of 3.8%; the total sales volume of social retail products in August increased by 5.4%, which was better than the increase in July. 2.7%, also an increase of 3.5%better than expected; fixed asset investment in the first eight months of this year increased by 5.8%year -on -year, which was 5.7%faster than the first seven months, and it was almost 5.5%.

Economic indicators are better than expected to enhance investors' perception of "China's economy is more tough". It should be more conducive to the market popularity in the future, and it is also conducive to the long -term stability of the RMB.

Personally estimated that the RMB exchange rate may only break 7 in a short time, and the midline should have a chance to pick up. From the perspective of the appreciation logic of the dollar, it may be just a short -term logic. Everyone knows that high inflation will induce high interest rates, and appreciate the corresponding currency or change due to changes in supply and demand. But on the other hand, high inflation will "significantly" weaken the purchasing power of the corresponding currency, so the US dollar is not completely self -consistent due to high inflation appreciation. Although the decisive factors of the exchange rate, there are also "purchasing power parity" factors, but people often forget the latter.

However, from the perspective of observing foreign capital entry and exit, the appreciation of the US dollar is relatively easy to bring transnational funds to the US dollar assets. The implementation of foreign capital flow in A shares is reduced, so it may still be A -share pressure for the time being.

The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate conference next week is obviously the largest incident in the international financial market. The Federal Reserve is almost sure to raise interest rates at 75 base points, so investors may be slightly overwhelming about interest rate hikes. More attention points should be the remarks released by the Fed at that time, because this can imply that the November and December interest rate conference plus Betting amplitude.

A shares may lack too many opportunities in the short term, and investors may have to endure for a while. Although the newly announced economic indicators are better than expected, the continuity needs to be observed. Because the epidemic has caused abnormal single -month data fluctuations, and it must also take into account the base effect last year. Generally speaking, when the epidemic interference is too large, it will be more accurate to see the data for a few months.

The current market is on the way to adjust, and the popularity is damaged, and most investors have a strong wait -and -see mood. As an ordinary investor, it is generally not necessary to forcibly operate, or it is better to take the trend. If the so -called defensive, if it is implemented in specific operations, it is to take as much as possible to "falling space relatively measured" varieties.

The investment process will never be avoided, and there will be alternate alternately. The reasonable operation is to decisive and active when it is more profitable to expand the account; be cautious and conservative when the opportunity is small, and control the extension of the withdrawal as much as possible in as much as possible in the way. Within a certain range.

The author has opened a column on the WeChat platform. Readers can directly view the author's latest point of view through WeChat every Sunday to Thursday evening. For details, please pay attention to the WeChat public account. Each Eye (WeChat: NJCJNEWS) can be followed (WeChat: NJCJNEWS)

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