Behind the mortgage interest rate "Break 6": The United States just need to bear the burden for a year, and "difficult to buy a house" has given birth to "rental heat"

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Wu Bin reported that when the Fed continued to raise interest rates, the US mortgage interest rate was also continued to soar, more than doubled a year.

The average interest rate of the 30 -year mortgage loan in the United States has exceeded 6%this week, the highest level since 2008. The survey by the US Housing Mortgage Financial Giant Freddie Mac (Freddie Mac) on the 15th shows that the average interest rate of 30 -year fixed mortgage loans climbed to 6.02%this week, which was higher than 5.89%last week, which is far higher. 2.86%a year ago. On the other hand, despite the weakening demand at high interest rates, the US house prices are still running at a high level. At present, the average house price is slightly lower than $ 370,000, which is still higher than one year ago.

At the same time, "difficult to buy a house" also gave birth to "rental fever". Kashif Ansari, co -founder and CEO of the Asian Real Estate Technology Company, told reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald that house prices and mortgage interest rates are both high. The burden of buying a house has allowed many people, especially young families to postpone buying houses. They also joined the housing army. In addition, the epidemic has changed people's work and home habits. More people moved out of the shared house or their families in the same house and chose to live alone. The protection policies for the protection of tenants who do not drive the rental rent during the epidemic period have also expired. Various factors have led to an increase in demand in the rental market, and rents inevitably increase.

To make matters worse, the "hot" rental market will also exacerbate inflation pressure. Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that the current housing rent has risen sharply. Considering that the housing price is not effectively suppressed in the short term, the cost of interest payment is increased. Mostly to meet the demand for residence through rent, this will promote the rents to continue to be high. The short -term rent may not fall significantly, which may weaken the inhibitory effect of interest rate hikes on inflation.

Housing interest rate "Break 6" suppress demand

The high -rise mortgage interest rate is seriously squeezing loan demand.

According to data released by the mortgage banker association (MBA) on the 14th, as of the week of September 9, the application for mortgage loan purchase decreased by 29%compared with the same period of 2021. The market comprehensive index that measures the number of mortgage applications has decreased by 1.2%compared with the previous week. The MBA re -financing index decreased by 4%over the previous week and 83%from the same period last year.

In this regard, Joel Kan, chief economist of MBA, said that higher mortgage interest rates have led to more buyers in a wait -and -see state.

Wang Youxin analyzed reporters that behind the breakthrough of the mortgage rate, the rapid surge in the US interest rate center will have a greater impact on the US real estate market and mortgage loan field. First, the cost of house purchase of residents has risen sharply, and real estate sales will fall further. In July, new housing sales decreased by 29.6%year -on -year. Second, the increase in interest payment costs of stock loans will increase the pressure of residents' debt repayment. In the context of a sharp decline in financial asset prices, the family asset -liability statement has deteriorated, and the risk of loan defaults will increase.

Regarding the dilemma of high interest rates, Rob Subbaraman, director of the global market research director of Nomura Holdings, said in a straightforward manner: "As the actual salary after inflation has declined, interest rates have risen sharply. What happened. "

In fact, before the mortgage interest rate "broke 6", the demand has slowed sharply. According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, the sales of new houses dropped by 12.6%month -on -month, and the annual rate of 511,000 units after seasonal adjustment was the lowest since January 2016. In July, the sales of new houses plummeted by 29.6%year -on -year.

Although demand has slowed down, house prices are still at a high level. In July, the median price of the new house was 439,400 US dollars, an increase of 8.2%over a year ago, only slightly lower than the previous record of 458,200 US dollars.

However, the trend of cooling down the market in the global tightening wave is inevitable. Juduwai IQI Group Global House Price Report in the second quarter shows that from the perspective of housing prices, most of the real estate markets in the world now have signs of slowing down. Among the 58 housing markets in the world that have released house prices so far, house prices in 49 countries have risen, and house prices in 9 countries have declined. After the inflation adjustment of the data, only 34 countries rose in house prices, and housing prices in 24 countries actually declined.

The rental market "Heat is in the sky"

On the occasion of high housing prices and loan costs, the overall US property market has cooled down, but the rental market is "hot".

Data released by Zumper on August 29 showed that the median monthly rent of the newly listed one -bedroom house in the United States was $ 1486, an increase of 11.8%over August 2021, and also exceeded the record high touched in July this year. In the United States, the rents in the United States have risen by double -digit, and some cities have risen more than 30%. New York is still the most expensive place for rent. The median rent in one -bedroom rents rose 39.9%year -on -year, and the rent of the two -bedroom apartment rose 46.7%year -on -year. Among the five administrative districts in New York, Manhattan's highest rent was the highest, with a monthly rent of 4212 US dollars, an increase of 27%over last year.

Lin Haitao, founder and CEO of North American Housing.com, told the 21st Century Business Herald that we take care of 300 rental houses for domestic investors in the Seattle property management company. At present, the rental market in Seattle is very different from the independent houses and apartment buildings. The rental house rental house is very sought after in the first half of this year, and most of the rent has risen by 10%-20%. Our independent house located in Clyde Hill, Seattle, with a rent of $ 8,500 last year. In February this year, the rent of new tenants was $ 10,000. The rental market of the apartment building is quite opposite. There are many apartments in the market, and the competition is very fierce. Many apartments need to reduce prices to rent. Behind the differentiation of apartments and independent housing rental markets, in addition to the differentiation of the supply of housing, due to the popularity of the new crown epidemic, many working class chooses to live in the city center. Similar to this, Ansari also said that, compared with other types of houses, independent housing demand is greater. Independent houses are the main forms of American household houses. In the south, a set of more than 100,000 US dollars can be bought. If a loan is used, the investment can be as low as 20%of the house, the monthly rent can be more than $ 1,000, and the rental return rate can be as high as 10%.

Another interesting phenomenon is that for many migrant workers who cannot afford a house in coastal areas, buying a house on the Internet is a good way. Through websites such as ROOFSTOCK, we can find a high rental ratio in all parts of the United States, and then rent it outside. Earn investment returns.

In this regard, Gary Beasley, co -founder and CEO of RoofStock, said that many of their customers are science and technology employees in coastal areas with annual salary between 200,000 and $ 300,000. These buyers need to pay about $ 300,000 in the down payment to buy houses in their own communities. However, if the situation of going to the foreign state is different, the down payment is 40,000 US dollars, they can buy a house in a lower cost market, collect rent, and bring stable profits.

Ansari analyzed to reporters that traditionally, personal investment in real estate should be close to facilitate individual care. However, technology has changed the investment ecosystem. Big data and cloud computing allow individuals to invest in those online accurate houses like investing in stocks. Foreign buyers can also go long -distance cross -border investment in real estate. Professional third -party property management companies also Solved the problem of property management. The epidemic has brought the US Eastern and Western coast white -collar workers to the southern Sunshine state with affordable house prices. Charlotte, Orlando, Jacksonville, Birmingham, Tampa, Nashville (Nashville) and other southeast cities have become popular choices.

The "hot" rental market has intensified inflation pressure

For the Federal Reserve, it is obviously not wanting to see that the rental market is so "hot".

In the August CPI report announced on the 13th, the cost of housing continued to rise, and the Housing cost index rose 0.7%month -on -month in August, which was 0.5%higher than July, a maximum monthly increase since 1991. Rental increases reached 6.7%year -on -year, the highest level since the record, and a significant increase of 0.7%month -on -month.

It should be noted that the cost of housing is the largest component of the US CPI composition, with a weight of about one -third, and housing costs often become an important indicator for the Federal Reserve to decide the interest rate hike path. Some analysts even predict that as more leases expire and reflect higher market prices, there may be more upward space for rent in the next few months.

The stubborn inflation pressure also means that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise 75 basis points in violence next week. Former US Treasury Secretary Samers said that in order to control inflation, the Fed may eventually have to adjust interest rates to more than 4.3%.

Wang Youxin analyzed that although the year -on -year growth rate of CPIs in the United States has settle down for two consecutive months, the year -on -year growth rate of CPIs has not declined than expected, and the core CPI growth rate will not decline, indicating that the United States' inflation is still stubborn and the effect of tightening monetary policy is limited. This means that the Fed will continue to firmly implement a tightening monetary policy, and the interest rate hike will also be higher than previous expectations. By the end of the year, the federal fund interest rate may exceed 4%.

On the other hand, the Fed may not cut interest rates soon. Wang Youxin predicts that in order to consolidate the effects of tightening monetary policy on suppressing inflation, even if the US economy falls at the end of the year or early next year, the Fed may not immediately consider interest rate cuts.

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