Daily True Gold | International Gold Price has plummeted to a low point in the past two years

Today's guest: Liu Zhongshan, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center

The international gold price opened this week at $ 1717/ounce, and rushed to a maximum of $ 1735/ounce. As of press time, the lowest exploration to 1658.6 US dollars/ounce, falling to the low point since April 2020. Show a unilateral downward.

In terms of news, the US retail sales in August rebounded unexpectedly. The number of unemployed gold at the beginning will be the lowest to the beginning of May, which will provide data support to the Federal Reserve's great interest rate hike. The overall consumer price index (CPI) in the United States increased by 8.3% year -on -year In August, the core CPI rose 6.3%year -on -year, not only to strengthen the stronger after 4 months, but also higher than the expected 6.1%. The latest August CPI data released in the United States exceeded market expectations, showing that inflation is still at a high level.

Due to the strong unexpected economic data and high inflation data, it provides support for the Federal Reserve for the third consecutive interest rate hikes, and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects to rise sharply. The core goal of the Federal Reserve is still to control inflation and develop the economy on the basis of controlling inflation. Once the inflation is high, the Federal Reserve does not hesitate to sacrifice economic prospects to control inflation. The market is generally expected that the interest rate hikes in the September interest rate interest rate will increase. Affected by this, the US dollar index has risen sharply, setting a high point in nearly 20 years. It is showed that under the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, a large amount of funds return to the US dollar, and precious metal prices and commodity prices will be under pressure.

The trend of crude oil prices is linked to the price trend of gold. At present, the strong US dollar index has formed a relatively obvious suppression on crude oil prices, and economic recession is concerned about reducing the prospects of oil demand. At the same time, the U.S. railway avoids large -scale strikes that may affect domestic coal transportation. Oil prices continue to decline, concerns about global economic recession, and long -term replacement effects of new energy, have led to gradually declined crude oil prices. However, the energy crisis near winter has not been lifted, and crude oil prices have supported by pressure and demand below. It is necessary to pay attention to the rebound rhythm during the downward process of crude oil prices. On the whole, the decline in crude oil prices will weaken the support for gold prices.

Taken together, the price of gold still faces the continuous pressure caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In addition, the global epidemic and geopolitical situation ease, and the strength of gold prices comes from the support of the demand for hedging, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices. At present, although the price of gold has certain physical demand support after falling, in the context of global economic downturn, the impact of physical demand has limited impact.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes lead to a decline in gold prices. The rhythm will change around the market's emotions, but it will not change the fundamental trend. The Fed's monetary policy will usher in a loose to tight conversion. From the perspective of the trend, the rebound of gold prices is small and the decline is relatively large. It shows that the current power of the shortness occupies a significant advantage. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes continued, the United States inflation is not controlled within 2%. Downward pressure.

From the perspective of the Golden ETF position, ETF has a total position of 962.01 tons, a position reduction of 1.73 tons on September 13, 2.03 tons on September 14, 2.32 tons on September 15th, 1.45 tons on September 16. This week's cumulative reduction of positions was reduced this week. 4.63 tons, ETF has been significantly under pressure this week.

At the perspective of the operation level, the fundamental gold price is facing the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expected to be suppressed. From the perspective of the technical trend, the daily line accelerates the position. The short trend is obvious. The possibility of gold prices will be inertia next week. It is expected to operate 1640-1700 US dollars per ounce, and pay attention to the $ 1700/ounce resistance level above. The short -term operation of short -term operation is mainly based on the long -term operation, and the multi -heading operation needs to be cautious and strictly stopped. The above suggestions are for reference only.

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