International gold price breakdown of 1660 US dollars to the new lows in the past two years, who is dominating the gold market?

Economic Observation Network reporter Chen Shan's economic data was densely released, and international gold prices lost $ 1,700, hitting a low price in more than two years.

On September 15th, the spot gold shook down, and expanded the decline during the US market, which continued to fall below $ 1,700/ounce, $ 1690/ounce, $ 1680/ounce, $ 1670/ounce, $ 1660/ounce. Detective to $ 1659.4/ounce, a new low since April 2020. Obvious diving during the night disk of domestic gold futures.

The international gold price plummeted, the next day (September 16) the domestic A -share market responded violently: gold stocks fell. According to Wind data, as of the close of the day, Hunan Gold fell 5.2%, and gold in the west fell 4.53%. China Gold Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining all fell more than 3%, and Chifeng Gold and Intime Gold fell more than 2%. As of press time, the international spot gold has not stopped falling, and the market has been further explored to $ 1653.4/ounce.

The reporter learned from a number of analysts that the decline in the gold price is related to factors such as the expected heating up in the Federal Reserve's strong interest rate hike.

The first is the data released by the US Department of Labor on August 13 that the US August CPI growth rate was 8.3%year -on -year, although it was slower than the previous value, but it was still higher than expected. , Gold the gold bulls.

In addition, the US side announced the US retail sales data during the US market on September 15. As a result, the performance of the data was slightly exceeded. The initial unemployment money data announced at the same time as retail data was less than expected. Essence "Two data reflect that the US economy is still tough under the strong consumption and employment areas. This has once again strengthened the Fed's radical interest rate hike expectations, and gold and silver rotation fell." Xia Yingying, a Nanhua Futures metal analyst, told reporters.

In fact, since this year, the international spot gold price has fallen from $ 400/ounce in March's $ 2070/ounce in March, and a cumulative decline of over 20%during the period. For the remaining time in 2022, industry insiders believe that Fed's monetary policy adjustment is expected to dominate the gold market with the US economic recession.

The historians of the colored precious metal group of the Founder Medium Research Institute told reporters that since the third quarter of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment expectations and rhythm continues to dominate the gold trend. Due to the changes in the Fed ’s accelerated interest rate hike expectations, the overall appearance of the gold shows the weakness of the weakened and then rebounded again, and the overall maintains the weakness. Next, we need to continue to pay attention to the expected progress of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike rhythm and economic recession.

He believes that after the Fed accelerated the tightening of monetary policy paths, the economic recession is concerned about intensifying, and the geopolitical situation has not improved substantially. The possibility of weakness in commodities is great. Bit support is still valid, and the gold configuration price above the key point still exists. He believes that the main operating range of the gold in 2022 is 1675-2075 US dollars/ounce (Shanghai Gold 355-425 yuan/gram).

Regarding the golden market outlook, Guangfa Futures believes that the actual interest rate and the maintenance of the US dollar have made investors favors assets such as US dollar bonds to hedge the impact of interest rate hikes. In this case, the precious metal market is difficult to improve. The trend of risk assets will fluctuate before and after, and the market outlook will need more fundamental information guidelines.

Guoxin Futures also stated that the CPI in the United States in August was higher than expected. The core inflation rebounded from the previous month to highlight inflation and viscosity, and the sub -performance highlights the current toughness of the service industry. The market has been fully included in the expectations of 75bp in September, and another 30%probability is expected to raise interest rates by 100bp. The US economic toughness is still prominent and the European economic prosperity is significantly under pressure. The upwardness of the US dollar index may not end, the actual interest rate upward process has not ended, and the pressure above the precious metal still exists.

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