In August, the majority of the national economy recovered most indicators than last month

On September 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of economic data in August. Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Comprehensive Statistics, said at the press conference that in August, in the face of a complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, various departments and departments efficiently coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. Practice the policy of stabilizing the economy and continuous policies and measures, accelerate the release of policy efficiency, and the national economy continues to resume the development trend. Most indicators are better than last month.

Industrial production has picked up

Consumption potential in key areas is gradually released

From the perspective of production, the policy effects of stabilizing the industrial chain supply chain and supporting the production of key industries are relatively obvious, and industrial production has rebounded. In August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.2%year -on -year, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.4 percentage points from last month. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5%, an acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from last month. Policies and measures to promote the development of the service industry are gradually effective, and the service industry continues to recover. The service industry production index increased by 1.8%year -on -year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.2 percentage points from last month.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that looking forward to the next stage, it is expected that industrial production will be affected by two factors. On the one hand, infrastructure investment continues to grow rapidly, and domestic demand will continue to recover; on the other hand, foreign demand is still affected by the slowdown of the global economy or declined.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told reporters of the Securities Daily that with the impact of extreme climate factors, the export growth rate has declined, and the industrial added value continued to rise in September facing certain resistance. However, monthly infrastructure investment is expected to continue the high growth of double digits. Driven by the basis of the same period last year, the year -on -year growth rate of industrial added value is still expected to reach about 4.4%.

From the perspective of demand, the promotion of consumer policies continues to make efforts, consumption potential in key areas has gradually released, and the market sales scale continues to expand. In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 5.4%year -on -year, and the growth rate accelerated by 2.7 percentage points from last month.

In this regard, Wen Bin believes that consumption data is so well -influenced by three factors: first, the impact of the epidemic has weakened; the other is that residents' consumption confidence rises; and the third is to continue to play a role in stabilizing consumer policy.

"After deducting price factors, the actual sales of consumer goods in August increased by 2.2%year -on -year. Although it improved by about 3 percentage points from last month, it was still significantly lower than the industrial growth rate." Wang Qing said.

In terms of investment, both infrastructure and manufacturing investment rebounded. From January to August this year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 36710.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point from January to July; and 0.36%from the previous month in August.

In terms of sub -field, infrastructure investment increased by 8.3%year -on -year, 0.9 percentage points accelerated from January to July; manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, accelerated by 0.1 percentage points; 1.0 percentage points.

Wen Bin said that under the context of the use of special bonds and successively landing on the end of August, and the developmental policy financial instruments, future infrastructure investment will remain rapidly, and it is expected to continue to play a role in the next stage.

Stable growth policies have been implemented one after another

Internal needs are expected to continue to boost

Since mid -to -late August, policy measures and measures for policy reduction and stable growth have been implemented one after another, and it is expected to continue to boost domestic demand.

In Wen Bin's view, with the continuous play of the policy effect, the foundation of economic recovery has been further consolidated. It is expected that GDP in the third quarter is expected to rise to about 4.1%, the year -on -year growth rate of about 4.5%in the fourth quarter, and about 3.6%throughout the year.

Wang Qing predicts that macroeconomic data in September will continue to warm up, and the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter will rise significantly to about 3.8%, and macro policies will continue to grow steady growth orientation. Among them, infrastructure investment will maintain double -digit growth, and weak links such as small and micro enterprises and residents' consumption will be the main force of targeted support policies. In addition, the possibility of further interest rate cuts and expanding the scale of special bond issuance.

Pang Ye, the chief economist and director of the Research Department of the Zhongliang Federation, told reporters that the policy side should attach importance to expanding and supporting the effective needs of the society in the future. The endogenous motivation is not to increase the short -term policy, but to give priority to ensuring that the existing policy is advanced and the incremental policy is effective. Monetary policy must cooperate with fiscal and industrial policies. Policy tools must continue to make efforts and amplify their effects. Efforts to effectively make up for the problem of insufficient demand with consumption and investment.

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