After more than two years, the RMB breaks the "7", what is the future trend?

After a lapse of more than two years, the RMB exchange rate fell below the integer point "7" again, refreshing the lowest value since July 2020. At around 18:30 on the 15th, the foreign exchange market on the foreign exchange market hit the US dollar at the lowest exchange rate of 7.0187. On the same day, the RMB against the US dollar on the shore also fell significantly, and continued to approach 7. What are the reasons for the depreciation of the RMB in this round? What impact will it bring? What is the future trend?

Zhong Zhengsheng, the chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that there are two triggering factors in the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate: on the one hand, the US dollar index has recently reached a 20 -year high; on the other hand, the deepening of the China -US currency policy has been deepened, and the yields of China -US bonds have inverted inverted on the yield of US debt yields. The degree of deepening the degree.

Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in fact, from early 2022, the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar exchange rate has shown the characteristics of "consolidation-urgency-consolidation-urgency". The most important reason for the depreciation of the US dollar this year is that the long -term spread between China and the United States has rapidly widen.

Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the Central Bank of China, previously mentioned that the recent adjustment of the RMB exchange rate was mainly due to the adjustment of the United States' overtime monetary policy. In the context of the US dollar appreciation, other reserve currencies have depreciated sharply in other reserve currencies in the basket in the basket, but compared with other non -US dollar currencies, the depreciation of the RMB Therefore, the renminbi has not comprehensively depreciated.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, said that the exchange rate has its own advantages and disadvantages regardless of the rise and fall, and should be viewed with ordinary hearts. Increasing exchange rate flexibility will help release stress in time and avoid expected accumulation; help the container absorber that helps to absorb the internal and external impacts, enhance the autonomy of monetary policy; help reduce dependence on administrative means, boost investment Confidence.

"Although people are worried that the depreciation of the exchange rate will affect the performance of the capital market, it is not actually the case. Foreign capital is not worried that it is not the rise and fall of the exchange rate, but the risk of non -trading." Guan Tao said.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the market's concerns about the depreciation of the exchange rate are mainly concentrated in four aspects. First, depreciation expectations may exacerbate capital outflows, impact domestic asset prices, and cause financial risks. Second, the depreciation of the exchange rate has led to an increase in the cost of imports of raw materials, exacerbating the pressure of input inflation, and squeezing the profit of the downstream industry. The third is to increase the pressure on the repayment of foreign debt. The fourth is to restrict the formation of domestic monetary policy, and the space for steady growth policy is limited.

"But the above risks are generally controllable." Luo Zhiheng said that first of all, the main reason for the current depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is the rapid strengthening of the US dollar index. The RMB is still a strong currency and has not formed strong expectations of depreciation. Secondly, the foreign dependence of China's food, energy, etc. is less than Europe, and it has always emphasized that the price of large -scale commodities in the world has also weakened the input inflation pressure to a certain extent. In addition, China's overall foreign debt is not large. And macro policies adhere to "me as the main".

He also pointed out that the depreciation of the exchange rate is also good. In the context of the rising risk of global economic recession, the market is worried that the growth rate of exports will fall rapidly, and the depreciation of the exchange rate will increase the competitiveness of China's export products to a certain extent and boost exports; In the industry, the depreciation of the exchange rate can increase exchange income and improve the operating benefits of the enterprise.

After breaking "7", where is the renminbi? The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that in the context of a strong US dollar, whether the RMB exchange rate breaks the key point of "7" is not so important, it should be rationally view the fluctuations of the exchange rate under the complexity of the international situation.

He pointed out that the central bank of China is rich in policy tools that can be used to stabilize the exchange rate, including but not limited to the start of counter -cyclical factors and regulating corporate cross -border financing macro -prudential adjustment parameters. Among them, the counter -cyclical factors will directly act on the RMB to the US dollar intermediate price quotation model. From the historical experience, the tool is very effective in dealing with the unilateral devaluation of the RMB.

Luo Zhiheng said that the exchange rate broke the "7" to the return of the equilibrium exchange rate, and there is no need to worry too much. In the future, the RMB exchange rate trend depends on three factors. One is the strength of the US dollar index, the second is the domestic economic recovery situation, and the third is to maintain the stable policy intervention. However, the RMB exchange rate does not have the basis of long -term depreciation. As the US dollar index has risen in the future, the domestic economic stability and recovery, and the appropriate intervention of policy tools, the RMB exchange rate will return to "7", just like the first two rounds breaking "7" Same.

Guan Tao predicts that the rest of this year will still be "multi -short interweaving", and the RMB will continue to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in two -way fluctuations. In the short term, it may be the upper hand in the air, but at the end of the year, some potential benefits will gradually appear.

(Source: Zhongxin.com)

Edit: Han Luying

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