What are the impacts of the RMB exchange rate "Breaking 7"?I understand

Chinanews.com, September 17 (China New Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) Following the offshore RMB on September 15th, the US dollar fell below the 7.0 mark, on September 16, the shore of the RMB against the US dollar also "broken 7", which was 2020 For the first time since July.

What does the RMB exchange rate "break 7" mean? What impact will it have on daily life, enterprise exports, and even the capital market? Will the renminbi continue to depreciate?

RMB RMB against the US dollar trend chart.

The RMB exchange rate "breaks 7" is beyond the reasonable range?

When the relevant person in charge of the central bank responded to the RMB "Breaking 7", it was described that the RMB exchange rate "broke 7". This "7" is not age. "It's more like the water level of the reservoir, which is higher at the time of the water period. When it is dead, it will fall again, and there will be rising and falling.

"This stage of short -term depreciation is normal, and the RMB exchange rate is a two -way fluctuation." Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told reporters that the RMB exchange rate is basically fluctuating around 6 to 7, and "Break 7" is still still Within a reasonable range, the RMB exchange rate is still stable.

This time "Break 7" originated from the US monetary policy?

The RMB exchange rate "breaks 7" again after two years. In the view of Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, it is mainly affected by the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy to suppress high inflation. Most non -US dollar currencies, including RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees.

Recently, the Fed has repeatedly released the interest rate hike signal. The US CPI in August rose by 8.3%year -on -year, exceeding market expectations, which also caused raising interest rates in the US market. Recently, the US dollar index has strengthened again.

Guojin Securities believes that under the continuous division of interest rates between China and the United States, the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in China and the United States has once again inverted and quickly widen, which has also suppressed the RMB exchange rate.

Renminbi and USD data charts. Photo by Li Jinlei, a reporter from China News Service

The lower RMB exchange rate will benefit export companies?

In Dong Dengxin's view, "the moderate devaluation of the RMB will help the export of domestic products. After expanding exports, it will also have a stimulating effect on economic growth."

Guojin Securities also said that the devaluation of the RMB will further increase the competitive advantage of some exports to account for a relatively high industry. The overseas income of export business is also expected to benefit from exchange income, and the depreciation of the RMB may further increase the profits of export -oriented enterprises.

However, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is also a double -edged sword. Exporting companies increase their income by depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but if too much imported raw materials and components are used, it is likely to increase expenditure due to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Does the depreciation of the renminbi affect daily life?

In many people's impression, after the depreciation of the RMB, studying abroad, Haitao shopping, etc. will increase costs. But if you stay in China and buy your country's goods, will it not affect it?

From a comprehensive point of view, although the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate is relatively small on the daily life and prices of ordinary people, the world is a unified large market. Some imported raw materials and other prices will increase, which will increase the production cost of the enterprise and affect the price of goods. If we buy these products, the expenditure will increase.

However, although the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has weakened, it remains stable in a basket of currencies. This also means that if we go to study and shop with non -US dollars as the main settlement currency, or there is no need to pay extra costs.

A basket of monetary data map.

Will the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar affect the stock market?

Ping An Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate and stock price are the result of market pricing. The correlation between the two is more reflected in whether it is affected by the same factors and the cross -impact between the two markets, not mutual causal relationships.

"Among them, economic growth, liquidity, external incidents, etc. will affect the expected return of cross -border capital flow and financial assets. The influence of fundamentals and occasional events on the exchange rate and stock market tends to be synchronized. Different similarity, in addition, foreign -funded behavior fluctuations may increase the A -share market fluctuations to a certain extent. "Ping An Securities said.

Although many people are worried about the depreciation of the renminbi, capital will flow out. However, the data settlement and sales data showed that foreign investors investment in domestic bonds and stock markets continued to improve.

Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, recently said that the net inflow inflow of cross -border funds under the trade of goods continued to continue to have a high scale, and foreign capital inflows such as direct investment and other channels increased steadily.

Is it a good time to buy dollars and gold now?

Under the depreciation of the renminbi, how to allocate assets, is gold or US dollar a good choice?

Dong Dengxin said that investment must have long -term concepts and must make judgments from the long -term trend. "At present, the RMB exchange rate is still in a stable range, and basically it will not change much about investors' expectations."

"Gold is linked to the US dollar. The fluctuations of gold prices and the fluctuations of the US dollar exchange rate have a strong degree of correlation. In short, the US dollar appreciates and gold depreciates." Dong Dengxin said, at present, gold is still at a high level. Continue to appreciate, gold may depreciate sharply, so the risk of investing in gold is very high.

Data Map: People buy gold jewelry in a shopping mall in Fuzhou. China News Agency reporter Lu Ming

"In this special period now, cash is king. Holding cash in hand can be involved in a good low at any time and obtain considerable benefits." Dong Dengxin added. Will the renminbi continue to depreciate?

Wen Bin believes that from the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter has a significant rise from the second quarter. The level of inflation is mild and controllable, and the international revenue and expenditure conditions are good. Especially for regular projects and direct investment basic projects such as income and expenditure Maintaining a high surplus has laid the foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, and there is no basis for the renminbi.

From September 15th, the central bank reduced the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions from 8%to 6%to 6%. This is the second time the RMB repair is under the estimation.

"It can be seen that the operation of the tool in recent years can be seen that the adjustment of foreign exchange deposit reserves has a good reverse cycle adjustment effect." Li Yuebo, an analyst at Caitong Securities, said that if the pressure of the RMB depreciation continues, the central bank's inverse cycle adjustment policy continues There are also counter -cyclical adjustment factor, offshore ticket, long -term exchange risk reserve, foreign exchange reserves, etc. in the toolbox. (Finish)

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