Zhu Keli: How to surpass 618?

Author: Dr. Zhu Keli, founder of the founding dean of the National Research Institute, chief researcher of the New Economic Think Tank (CINE), Dean of the Bay Area New Economic Research Institute

A few days ago, many media interviewed me around the recent hotspots such as 618 e -commerce trends and consumer vouchers. The following is a record of the interview:

1. Giving expectations to boost consumer confidence

1. As the largest shopping festival in the year, what is the 618 e -commerce trend in recent years? What are the characteristics of this year? What if you look at the role of consumption confidence?

Zhukel: Given that consumption has been weak since April, the sales of clothing and electrical appliances have decreased by more than 20%. 618 this year is undoubtedly given great expectations for boosting consumption confidence.

In recent years, the consumer market has shown the dual characteristics of overall heating and partialization. It has both highlights such as quality and diversified consumption demand, accelerated growth of upgraded goods, and deep integration of online and offline depth. The online market, sinking market, and innovative consumption continue to heat up. This also constitutes the background of the 618 e -commerce trend in recent years. From the perspective of online, online retail has become a new type of consumption hotspot. Many new products and upgraded products are selling well. Consumers prefer healthy, green, smart products, and national winds and national tide. From the perspective of offline, some cities are cold or interrupted in some cities with cold or interrupts on physical retail and catering services, but the scale of new consumer markets related to ice consumption, medical beauty, online tourism, etc. The in -community, county, and business district experience has been brought in to enhance the willingness and consumer experience of user consumption and consumer experience. Users customization and "black technology" are favored by young people. A consumer ecosystem that runs through urban and rural areas, cover online and offline, and integrates home -to -home stores is being formed.

At the same time, due to the content of the content of the e -commerce platform, community strategy and technological innovation, in recent years, more and more characteristic markets and characteristic merchants have evolved into new species of e -commerce formats, and they have presented three aspects: one It is the user positioning more and more segmentation and accuracy; the second is that the capacity of goods is increasingly differentiated, which can provide consumers with unique value products and services; the third is that the operation method focuses on content operation and social operations, and from traditional operating traffic to the operation brand New ideas such as fans. It is the capture and response based on consumer demand, including children's furniture, pregnant women's makeup, large -size clothing, programming toys, improved Hanfu, pet clothing, small apartment home furnishings, etc. It emerged, and a large number of specialty merchants also emerged.

2. This year's major e -commerce platforms have issued measures to support small and medium -sized businesses. What good do you think is?

Zhu Keli: Since the epidemic, major e -commerce platforms and Internet companies have exerted their advantages in the supply chain and other aspects, providing full -link support and services to the majority of small and medium businesses, helping merchants to resume production and re -production, adding to the current helping enterprises to relieve the rejuvenation of the rejuvenation Power and energy. For example, takeaway platforms combine the operation of small and medium -sized catering merchants to provide targeted subsidy discounts, and help them step out of the industry's cold winter by reducing commissions, delivery services, and gifts.

However, in order to truly solve the difficulties in the consumer field, in addition to providing assistance to small and medium businesses, more policies need more rescue measures. Based on the current now, but also to jump out of the current and 618, focusing on the combination of short -to -medium and long term, from the perspective of comprehensively promoting consumption in the system, and providing a path to further release consumption potential and promote the continuous recovery of consumption. The basic capacity of living and continuously enhancing the comprehensive capacity of consumer development with the support system is not only conducive to consolidating the trend of continuous expansion of the consumer field in recent years, and the continuous strengthening of consumer structure upgrades. Expected positive impact. Through comprehensive policies, with the steady increase of consumer income levels, the market space of some traditional consumer fields will be released in one step, and the corresponding quality consumption needs will also rise. For another example, with the iterative innovation of consumer formats and models, including emerging consumption and high -quality service consumption will continue to increase, it will become a strong support for consumption sustainable growth and high -quality economic development.

3. What are the tests of the logistics and supply chain of new economic infrastructure in this year? How to ensure the user experience?

Zhu Keli: This year's epidemic is repeated. As a new economic infrastructure, the logistics and supply chain of the new economic infrastructure are facing a huge test. The closure control caused by the epidemic has brought a huge impact on the supply chain. In some areas, the delivery time cannot be guaranteed due to the seal control. In addition, some anchors were unable to receive the goods due to the control, which was also affected. These have also become one of the variables of 618 this year.

In order to ensure the user experience, the e -commerce platform must further keep the supply chain and refine operation, and strive to perform the contract for customers, and fight this wave of turning. The tough supply chain and refined operation can not only optimize the user's shopping experience, but also boost the confidence of the merchant. However, from the long -term development of the e -commerce platform, we must continue to use two key tricks in the future: First, the leadership of science and technology innovation, with thousands of people and thousands of data mining, big data mining provide strong technical support for product upgrades, and achieve big data through scientific and technological innovation. Precise matching, helping to find the audience more efficiently, under the leadership of science and technology innovation, moving towards people -centered algorithm technology, further help characteristic merchants dig out their own business value, and exert greater creativity. The platform content and community strategy shaping the institutional elements that empower young people's creativity, bring the rise of characteristic markets, and give special merchants to build the convenience of emotional connection, drive the formation of a large number of cultural circles on the e -commerce platform, from simple transactions The platform becomes a consumer life community. After all, the epidemic will pass. As the rise of the new generation of consumer groups is unstoppable, the new consumption concept is being formed and stable. These trends are irreversible and are driving consumption from the expansion of quantity to qualitative upgrades and transformation. In the past ten years, consumer evolution has shown the characteristics of comprehensive and diversified upgrades, including continuous upgrading from survival consumer demand to development and enjoyment needs; The method is to gradually upgrade to the combination of online and offline.

Specifically, in terms of the development trend of consumer types, service consumption, personalized diversified consumption is the future trend. At present, from the perspective of data statistics, Chinese residents' consumption has shown the characteristics of shifting from tangible substance products to more service consumption, from imitating rowing consumption to personalized diversified consumption transformation; from the perspective of market demand, personalized personality, personalized personality The core keywords of new consumption trends. With the development of the entire e -commerce, the Internet, and socio -economic development, a large number of consumers, especially young users, are developing in the direction of personalized and differentiated consumption. This personalized and differentiated consumer demand has become more and more mainstream of consumption. Essence

Second, stabilize consumer ecological expectations

1. This year, the 618 e -commerce platform has rarely preached the big promotion fighting report to start talking about ESG and bailout. What do you think of this situation?

Zhu Keli: This year's 618 was affected by the epidemic, and the overall consumption was sluggish and domestic demand was weak. Consumers generally insufficient confidence. They tightened their pockets. To date, to this day, the most difficult 618 in history can be described as veritable. In this context, the e -commerce platform emphasizes ESG and bailout. To a certain extent, it is considered that to boost domestic demand and consumer confidence, we must first stabilize the back end to support the industrial chain supported by its support. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the offline supply chain is still in difficult recovery. Therefore, the platform can be rescued by small and medium -sized merchants, which can restore and enhance the confidence of merchants and users, which is conducive to stabilizing consumer ecological expectations.

2. Many businesses expressed their wanting to seize the opportunity to increase the opportunity of 618, but when "big promotion" no longer becomes the focus of e -commerce, what does the e -commerce festivals such as "618" do?

Zhu Keli: Similar festivals such as 618 and other consumers have bid farewell to the past, which is not necessarily a bad thing. However, the epidemic is only accelerating this change at the physical level. After all, for users, the freshness of this consumption festival will pass in the morning and evening, and after all, it will return to the normal consumption status of relatively rational rationality. For the platform, if the previous festivals have become a former innovation, then the user -oriented business model is really achieved, and the more refined business model will bring new possibilities to the development of e -commerce. Therefore, although 618 and other festivals created by e -commerce will continue, the connotation of the future will inevitably be different. Only based on the needs of user needs to continue to deepen innovation and continuously spawn new models, new formats, new scenes, new services, new services, new services, new services In order to expand new consumption space.

3. The live broadcast of goods once became an e -commerce sales increase artifact. This time 618 became the first 618 that the head anchor disappeared. The head disappeared and the non -Amoy anchor was gradually withdrawing from the battlefield. The development of ecological future?

Zhu Kelai: Decoration of heading means that the live broadcast and cargo entered a new stage of development. The anchor and amateur anchor of the middle waist may become the basic disk of live broadcasts. For the platform, de -heading can reduce the risk of single dependence, which is conducive to promoting the benign of the live broadcast and cargo market. It also has more choices for MCN. By creating a middle waist anchor and an amateur anchor matrix, it can be more more than more. Extend its life cycle and incremental market. It can be said that regardless of platforms, institutions, or anchors, the significant changes in de -heading will bring new challenges and opportunities. From the perspective of the entire live broadcast industry, it will have a more sustainable development ecosystem.

3. How to burst the multiplication effect of consumer vouchers

1. Does the issuance of consumer vouchers play a practical role in stimulating consumption? What are the value?

Zhukel: Although the issuance of consumer coupons is not a powerful means to leverage the consumption market, it can still play a practical role in stimulating consumption. And under the blessing of digital new infrastructure represented by the Internet payment platform, consumer coupons are used as a link to connect more terminal consumers with more industries and local governments to promote economic recovery together. In the process, the use of big data to make precise portraits of the crowd can help provides consumer coupons to people who need more. From the perspective of micro mechanisms, consumer vouchers have four potential value in four aspects. The first is that consumer vouchers have an enlarged effect and multiplication effect. That is, through the increase or decrease of a variable in economic activities, the chain effect of the entire economic change is caused. Specifically, the issuance of consumer vouchers has increased the income of residents, increasing additional consumption, expanding the scale of consumption expenditure in the whole society, and the expansion of consumption has stimulated product sales, promoting enterprises to increase production and investment, which is conducive to stable employment. And increasing positions, thereby gaining economic growth that can surpass consumer significance. In other words, follow the economic cycle logic of "stimulating terminal consumption -promoting corporate expansion of reproduction -increased residents' income -increased consumption". In this cycle, consumption, production, and investment are intertwined. While exerting and extending the effect of the number of multiplications, the expansion effect of a macroeconomic economy is formed.

The second is to relieve the economic pressure of low -income families. The decline of the economy is often accompanied by salary reduction layoffs. People are extremely sensitive to the change in prices. At this time, consumer vouchers also have the function of social relief, and have a greater stimulus effect on low -income groups. The issuance of consumer vouchers is equivalent to transferring purchasing power to the public, and consumption in specific fields within a certain period of time, so as to rapidly improve the marginal consumption tendency of residents in the short term, stimulate the recovery of consumption in related fields, and then drive enterprises to improve the production and operation of enterprises. Relieve market pressure.

The third is to play a special policy function during the transition period. The macro policy needs to have a digestive period from the launch to the landing. If this delay is considered as a long -term policy, then the consumer voucher is a short -term policy, which can significantly improve the living conditions of low -income families in the economic downturn. Cushioning time, shortening the time of economic recovery, and laid a good foundation for the development of the next stage and the long -term policy of promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand, that is, the long -term function of short -term policy.

Fourth, as a test of market competitiveness. The use of consumer vouchers through market competition can allow funds to flow to more competitive and more efficient economic units, and maximize capital efficiency. Therefore, the issuance of consumer vouchers has an irreplaceable advantage in the policy toolbox.

2. What is the motivation for e -commerce platforms to issue a large number of coupons at this time? What impact will it have for e -commerce platforms?

Zhu Keli: For the platform, the distribution of consumer coupons itself has the color of benefit people, and it is the embodiment of the user -based and technology. In order to avoid the limitations of a single platform in operation, the government will pass a series of evaluations to select the underwriting platform for consumer coupons. The formation of a digital industry chain for underwriting platforms, which can play their respective advantages under the logic of industrial interconnection, which can make the public welfare policy of consumer vouchers release more and more profound value dividends.

The issuance of consumer vouchers through the platform reflects the new value brought about by the platform economy for steady growth, benefiting people's livelihood, and promoting development. At the same time, it can also improve the digital thinking of SMEs in this process and accelerate the pace of digital transformation of industrial industries. Through targeted support in some industries, consumer coupons can indirectly play a role in reducing tax and exemption for small and medium -sized enterprises, thereby helping the survival and development of small and medium -sized enterprises for freshmen. It can be said that the issuance of consumer vouchers on the platform not only helps the public to form consumer inertia, but also helps to upgrade the digital governance system, optimize the design of consumer vouchers, and explore the combination of consumer coupons and other policies. At the same time, when the policy tools are combined with the advantages of the platform, the normalization of consumer coupons can better empower economic growth and play a positive role in social development and people's livelihood improvement.

Therefore, it is necessary to better support the healthy development of the platform economy and industrial Internet, and focus on the operation rules of maintaining the platform, including improving the social credit system, creating a good policy environment, strengthening the protection of the rule of law, and strengthening intellectual property protection. From these aspects to ensure the platform economy and industrial Internet, create a better business environment, and promote the "double upgrade" of industries and consumption.

3. With the purpose of ensuring the consumption market, do you think it is the best way to issue consumer coupons? In addition to issuing consumer vouchers, what ways do you think can play a role in stimulating consumption?

Zhu Keli: Under the goal of stabilizing consumption broadcasters, there is no best way, only the most suitable way. Consumer vouchers are a relatively large policy in the combination of economic recovery policy, and it is necessary to distinguish the scenes and use it objectively to treat and rationally evaluate its actual effects. In the context of the digital economy, the opportunity of related companies and Internet platforms to seize consumer vouchers is worthy of recognition. At the same time, it should not be issued by consumer coupons in the idea of ​​zero sum, because consumer coupons can completely form a win -win situation that is beneficial to everyone for merchants, platforms and public sectors. Of course, in the policy toolbox, in addition to issuing consumer coupons, there are other options that can stimulate consumption, but some operational difficulties and costs may be higher, such as directly issuing cash; some policies are being implemented. Essence In general, it is still necessary to use it flexibly due to the situation and form a more powerful combination fist.

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