Experts of offshore RMB to the US dollar exchange rate "Break 7" said that there is no basis for continuous depreciation

On the evening of September 15, the offshore RMB "broke 7" in the exchange rate of the US dollar. Wind data shows that as of 20:00 on September 15th, Beijing time, the offshore RMB to the US dollar exchange rate was the lowest to 7.0183. The exchange rate of the dollar to the US dollar was also approaching "7" to the lowest to 6.998.

Regarding the "break 7" again after more than two years, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that this was mainly affected by the Federal Reserve to suppress high inflation and accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. As the US dollar index continues to strengthen, most of the non -US dollar currencies, including RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees. Compared with the major developed economies such as pounds, euros, and yen, the RMB depreciation is relatively small, and the RMB exchange rate index index Overall stable.

According to Wind data statistics, "Securities Daily" reporter, as of September 14, the US dollar index rose 14.92%this year, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell by 9.56%at the same time. 14.7%.

In the later period, Wen Bin believes that from the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is significantly recovered compared with the second quarter. The high surplus of basic projects has laid the foundation for the stable exchange rate of the RMB and the stable operation of the foreign exchange market. There is no basis for the renminbi.

BOC Securities had previously released research reports that even if the short -term RMB exchange rate "breaks 7", it does not need to worry too much. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, as the Fed's tightening rhythm slowed down and the US dollar index fell, the domestic stable growth policy gradually became effective, and the RMB exchange rate may rise.

The market does not have to worry too much about "breaking 7". As early as August 5, 2019, the relevant person in charge of the central bank responded to the RMB exchange rate "breaking 7" that the RMB exchange rate was "breaking 7". It will be thousands of miles when it is broken; "7" is more like the water level of the reservoir. It is higher at the time of the flooding period. It will fall again at the time of dry water. It is normal.

With the continuous improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate is increasing, and the two -way fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate is the norm. Wen Bin suggested that for export -oriented enterprises, it is necessary to establish the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality, take the initiative to use derivative tools, do a good job of exchange rate risk management, and maintain normal production and operation.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

- END -