The triple liquidity is good and resonance, A shares do not rise and anti -descending agency: blue chip adjustment caused by adjusting the rebound at any time

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.16

Our reporter Ren Shibi On September 15th, the three major A -share indexes opened high and low, and individual stocks showed a general decline. However, real estate, banking and other sectors have led the increase, with an increase of 2.35%and 1.21%, respectively. On the news, after the asymmetric rate of loan quotation (LPR) in August, the deposit interest rate on September 15 also ushered in adjustment. It is reported that six major state -owned banks including ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, CCB, Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications will adjust their personal deposit interest rates from September 15th, including the interest rates of multiple varieties, including current deposits and regular deposits, Fine tuning. Among them, the interest rate of three -year regular deposits and large deposit deposits was reduced by 15 basis points, and 10 basis points were reduced by 10 -year and five -year regular deposit interest rates. On September 15th, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the banking system reasonable and abundant, the 400 billion yuan medium -term loan convenience (MLF) operation and the 2 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation was launched on September 15. , 2.0%, fully meet the needs of financial institutions. Regarding the reduction of LPR interest rates and deposit interest rates, Chen Xing, chief macro analyst of China -Thailand Securities, said that the deposit interest rate has reduced the negative impact of LPR to reduce the negative impact of bank net interest margins and help the bank's profit stable. Reducing deposit interest rates is conducive to the transformation of funds to the entity department and promoting the formation of wide credit. "Deposit and Moving" will also benefit the capital market as a result. GF Securities said that historically, each interest rate decline cycle includes the downward end of the asset liabilities. Usually the liability ending elasticity is about 60%of the asset end. The downturn of liabilities generally go through two stages: the first stage is the decline in the interest rate of the financial market (the liability cost of the same market liabilities). This stage has a greater impact on the cost of small and medium -sized banks with higher dependence on the same industry, while large banks and some farmers have some farmers and some farmers. As a funding party, commercial banks are more reflected in the asset end damage. The second stage is the adjustment of general deposit pricing. This stage has a greater impact on large banks and some rural commercial banks with relatively high general deposits. The adjustment of this deposit price interest rate is the first liability side adjustment in the complete cycle of interest rates: on the one hand, the protection of bank interest margins; on the other hand, it is also a signal confirmed by the "comprehensive interest rate cut" cycle. The continuous advancement of interest rate cuts have reduced the market's concerns about "external environment and inflation restrict currency looseness", and it is more helpful for stable and macroeconomic expectations. The interest rate cut can increase market liquidity. Theoretically, confidence in the A -share market will significantly boost, but under the favorable A -share market on Thursday, there is a high opening and low. In this regard, Li Daxiao, British Securities, said that good news such as interest rate cuts and taxes and taxes are real. It supports underestimation of the bottom of the blue chip stocks, showing the firm determination of management to stabilize the economy, and creates conditions for the main force of the main force in the blue chip organization. However, due to the relatively limited capital at the moment, other high -valuation stocks fell when the blue chip stocks started, and the number of high -valuation stocks was still many. Bounce will also appear at that time. Although the A -share market was unsatisfactory on Thursday, the industry insiders expressed their positive views on Bido news. “中长期来看,LPR利率及存款利率调降,对于股市走势也将形成利好。”接受《证券日报》记者采访的川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳表示,8月份, LPR interest rate reduction can not only effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy, but also stimulate the demand for medium and long -term credit and accelerate economic repair. For the stock market, LPR interest rates have lowered market confidence, manufacturing financing costs have declined, and investors' expected profitability of listed companies in the future is expected to increase. In September, the deposit interest rate is reduced: on the one hand, it is conducive to reducing the cost of bank liabilities, reducing the pressure on banks, and then promoting the further decline of loan interest rates; on the other hand, the deposit interest rate has reduced the attraction of deposits to a certain extent, which is conducive to residents who will invest in savings to invest Among other wealth management products such as stock markets, the increase in funds to the stock market may promote the rise of stocks. "Whether the MLF and LPR decline in August, or the four major banks on September 15th, they all reflect the continuous promotion of wide credit and reducing the cost of the real economy. Ronghe Credit data has also been significantly improved compared to July. The environment of loose liquidity is conducive to the rise of A shares. The central bank has vigorously promoted the stable growth of broad credit to support the stock market from the funding side. It will face good investment opportunities. "Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, told reporters. For the investment opportunities in the market outlook, Xia Fengjing, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, said that the low -rate interest rate is a major good news, which has an important positive impact on the A -share market, which has confidence in investors, and the composition of banks, real estate, brokers and other sectors in the A -share market. Good.

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