Dawn deposit interest rate re -reduced within the year: regularization and continuous exacerbation of residents still prefer "savings"?

Following April, this is the second personal deposit rate of personal deposits. With the reduction of this deposit interest rate, the management pressure of bank interest deviation may be alleviated, which is conducive to banks' stable profitability. For residents who prefer to save money, will bank deposits still be a good choice?

Author: Hu Yanming Wanmin

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that the latest state -owned bank deposit interest rate has been reduced, indicating that the effectiveness of the reform of deposit interest rates is emerging.

款 || Some young people interviewed by the reporter's interview with this deposit interest rate are not obvious.

3 || According to the calculation of the China Merchants Securities Team, this policy will eventually reduce the interest rate of about 7 BPs for bank deposit and reduce the cost of interest calculating liabilities by about 5 BPs, which can significantly alleviate the pressure on bank interest deviation next year.

On September 15, the official website of the State -owned Bank of China issued relevant announcements to adjust the interest rate of RMB deposits. The news of the personal deposit interest rate was reduced on the hot search list.

A reporter from the Economic Observation Network inquired about the bank's official website and found that this adjustment involves multiple categories involving moral deposits and regular deposits. Among them, the deposit interest rate of each period of deposit and the deposit was lowered: the three -year regular interest rate was reduced by 15 basis points, and the other period interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points.

Following April, this is the second personal deposit rate of personal deposits. With the reduction of this deposit interest rate, the management pressure of bank interest deviation may be alleviated, which is conducive to banks' stable profitability.

In the A -share market, the banking sector responded to the rise. As of September 15th, the three major indexes closed down collectively. Raising has become one of the few fluttering plates.

For residents who prefer to save money, will bank deposits still be a good choice?

The second personal deposit interest rate is reduced during the year

Taking the Construction Bank as an example, its website announcement shows that on September 15, the bank's 3 -month, 6 -month, 1 -year, 2 -year, and 5 -year period of deposit interest rates were 1.25%, 1.45%, and 1.65%, respectively 2.15%and 2.65%, all decreased by 10 basis points from the previous before; 3 -year regular deposit interest rates were 2.60%, a decrease of 15 basis points.

After this adjustment, the five major banks of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications have remained consistent. The five -year interest rates are 1.25, 1.45%, 1.65%, 2.15%, 2.60%, 2.65%, respectively. In addition to the two -year and one -year interest rate, the postal savings banks are more than 1 basis point (BP "higher than the five major lines. ) And 3bp, the remaining period interest rates are consistent with the five major banks.

In addition to a state -owned bank, there are some shares that follow up on the same day, and several shares of business people who have not followed up the interest rates have urgently promoted the deposit of the Bank. Some staff members of the bank issued a three -year period of deposit of 3.35%in the circle of friends, and told reporters that "(products) need to make an appointment, buy on the last day of today, and tomorrow will be gone." Another branch of the branch bank. "Another branch of the branch bank." It said: "3.35%of the deposit products are countdown to get off the shelves, and the amount is limited to buy as soon as possible."

This is the second time the bank has lowered personal deposit interest rates this year. In April, State -owned banks such as Gongnong China Construction Communications and Most of the joint -stock banks and most joint -stock banks downgraded in late April to reduce the interest rate of limited time deposits and large deposit deposit deposits in the one -year or higher period of time, and some local legal entities also made a decomposition.

On April 22, the reporter was informed during the online consultation of China Merchants Bank Customer Service that the annual interest rate of the 3 -year large deposit single deposit in the bank was 2.9%, and 200,000 starting and 300,000 storage were the same interest rate. The Minsheng Bank APP shows that 200,000 large -scale deposit orders start, with an annual interest rate of 3.4%. ICBC's website shows that this year has issued a three -year three -year large deposit bill, with 200,000 storage, and the interest rate is 3.35%. The Industrial Bank APP shows that 200,000 large -scale deposit orders were stored, and the interest rate was 3.55%. In addition, the three -year large deposit bills of SPDB and Ping An Bank also started with 200,000, with an annual interest rate of 3.55%, but the amount was tight.

After just one weekend, starting on April 25, the three -year large -scale deposit interest rate of many banks was reduced by 0.1 percentage points. The customer manager of the ICBC Sub -branch said that the interest rate of the three -year large -scale deposit deposit was 3.25%, and the amount was not easy to grab. In addition, the Industrial Bank APP showed that the annual interest rate of a three -year large -scale single deposit was 3.45%, which was 0.1 percentage points from last week. Ping An Bank's three -year large -scale annual interest rate was 3.4%, which was 0.15 percentage points from last week, and it was sold out. According to the central bank's survey data, in the last week of April (April 25th-May 1st), the average interest rate of new deposits of deposit deposits in national financial institutions was 2.37%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous week.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that the latest state -owned bank deposit interest rate has been reduced, indicating that the reform of the deposit interest rate reform is emerging.

The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the first quarter of 2022" issued by the central bank proposed that the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates was established under the guidance of the interest rate self -discipline mechanism. Interest rates and loan market interest rates represented by one -year LPR reasonably adjust the level of deposit interest rates.

Wen Bin said that on the one hand, the benchmark interest rate of deposit is "two tracks" with market interest rates, and on the other hand, it can also promote the linkage between deposit interest rates and LPR to attract each other, prompting policy interest rates to be more smooth to deposit interest rate transmission. After 10 BPs at the expected interest rate cut in August, the 10 -year Treasury bond yield has rapidly decreased significantly. The one -year and 5 -year LPR decreased 5bp and 15bp, the deposit interest rate was reduced, and the decline was roughly consistently. It shows that the reform of deposit interest rate reform is emerging. Residents' willingness to save

While the deposit interest rate reform, this year residents love to save money, and the willingness to save will reach a new high in recent years. In the first half of this year, RMB deposits increased by 18.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.77 trillion yuan compared to the first half of last year, of which household deposits increased by 10.33 trillion yuan.

On June 29, the central bank released a questionnaire survey report in the second quarter of 2022, showing that in the second quarter of 2022, in terms of consumption, savings and investment willingness, residents who tended to "more consumption" accounted for 23.8%, compared with the previous quarter, which was compared to the previous quarter. Increased by 0.1 percentage points; residents who tend to "more savings" accounted for 58.3%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; residents who tended to "more investment" accounted for 17.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter.

In response, Ruan Jianhong, the director of the Central Bank spokesman and director of the Department of Investigation and Statistics, responded that the marginal rise of the willingness of residents' savings deposits and the marginal decline in investment willingness to invest in the second quarter. Sex preferences have risen. At the same time, the volatility of the capital market has increased, and the risk preferences of residents have decreased. It is expected that with the gradual alleviating of the epidemic, residents' willingness to invest will gradually recover, and the willingness to consume will steadily return.

Wen Bin believes that since this year, micro -subject savings have a strong willingness to savings, weaker risk preferences, and regularized deposits have continued to intensify.

From the data point of view, in August, residents' deposits and corporate deposits increased by 1.83 trillion yuan and 1.96 trillion yuan, respectively, an increase of 1.17 trillion and 2 trillion yuan compared with July this year. Increased by 49 trillion and 39 trillion yuan. Among them, the new scale of residents' deposits continued to reach a historical high, and the new scale of corporate deposits was only lower than the same period in 2016.

Wen Bin believes that this means that the contraction of the asset -liability sheet of residents and enterprises such as market entities is still relatively obvious, and the willingness to take the initiative to produce or invest is not strong. Therefore, reducing deposit interest rates and other methods can help stimulate the self -financing needs of market entities, conducive to transformation of funds to the entity department, promote the formation of wide credit, and drive the economy into a virtuous circulation track.

Some young people interviewed by the reporter's interview with this deposit interest rate did not feel obvious. Miss Guo was a generation of 80s and lived in Beijing with her parents. She has always eager to buy a house that belongs to her. In 2019, I watched the commercial house. The small open room with a low total price cost more than 3 million and the down payment was 1.8 million. Ms. Guo once gave up her plan to buy a house.

In 2020, she will make a three -year deposit of three -year deposits at Everbright Bank, at that time, the annual interest rate given by the bank was 3.85%. "At that time, the main epidemic was relatively serious. My judgment on economic prospects was more pessimistic. I wanted to make a regular period. I felt more stable and guaranteed."

In 2021, Miss Guo's parents had a common property house on sale. It happened that she met the conditions for buying a house, and she could afford the down payment and price. Therefore, Ms. Guo finally realized that she was willing to buy her own house. The mortgage mortgage will be reduced with the LPR, but the current decline is not very large.

"When the regular deposit expires, I will take it out to repay the mortgage." Seeing that the current deposit interest rate was reduced all the way, Miss Guo plans to repay the mortgage in advance, and prepares for "hard struggle" for several years to step up the repayment of the mortgage.

Ms. Zhang is 38 years old and works in a state -owned enterprise in Beijing. His daughter is still in elementary school. Ms. Zhang said that her mother's retirement salary basically exists in banks, and most of them will continue to be stored after expiration. Her own investment concept is very different. "Investment, all kinds of investment, public offering of private equity, and Ethereum bought by friends." However, with the changes in the economic situation this year, Ms. Zhang said that she has also considered recently considering it. For longer and stable financial management methods, "Do you want to engage in old -age financial management or annuity insurance, but you haven't had time to study investment insurance carefully."

The feelings of users who are accustomed to deposits are relatively more obvious. Ms. Ding, who works in Beijing, is a civil servant. She told reporters that she has never been in contact with stocks and funds, and she doesn't know much about it. The salary is paid to the Card of ICBC. Although the deposit interest rate is declining, she believes that other investment and financial management takes a lot of time and energy to learn and understand, and she does not want to consider too much for the time being.

In addition, several residents talked that seeing that the yen has continued to decline recently, it is almost reaching a historical low. Usually, a small part of savings to buy yen foreign exchange is also an investment method.

Founder Securities pointed out in a recent research report that the trend of regular deposits has intensified in combination with the analysis of the semi -annual report of listed banks. In the first half of the year, the listed bank increased by 102 trillion regular deposits, an increase of 4.3 trillion year -on -year. The consumption demand of the residential department is weakened, the demand for house purchase is low, the willingness to be passive savings is sufficient, and more to the regular deposit. The weakening willingness to invest in enterprises has also increased regular deposits. The increase in regular deposits increased the interest rate of bank deposits. The bank's competition for deposits is more severe, and it also brings up pressure on the cost of deposit. Bank interest deviation pressure may be alleviated

Especially under the downward trend of interest rates on the deposit, some bank loans even have inverted interest. In April of this year, the president of the City Commercial Bank Sub -branch told reporters that the total spread of banks has been very low, and even inverted. If the interest rate of the corporate deposit structure deposit is more than 3 o'clock, the loan interest rate is more than 3 o'clock, basically there is no basis The spread.

Since the beginning of this year, the total LPR has been reduced by 35bp for more than five years. It is expected that it will also put tremendous pressure on the bank interest difference between banks in 2023, forcing banks to reduce deposit interest rates.

At the recent semi -annual report meeting held by many listed banks, many senior executives talked about banks' pressure on interest management. For example, Guo Mang, deputy president of the Bank of Communications, said that in the low interest rate market environment, the interest rate difference level of commercial banks in the second half of the year still undergo pressure. From the perspective of the asset side, the initial LPR reduction and the new loan interest rate of new loans in the second quarter decreased rapidly, and the impact on interest margins will continue to reflect, bringing downward pressure on subsequent interest rate yields. "From the perspective of the liabilities, affected by the decline in the decline in the investment and consumption willingness of residents and enterprises, the trend of regular deposits is more obvious, and the cost of liability has a certain degree of rigidity."

In this regard, bank management said that it would take multiple measures and raise stable interest margins. Liu Jianjun, president of the postal savings bank, said, "In the second half of the year, we must continue to promote the decline in the cost of liabilities, especially to increase the proportion of current deposits, increase the assessment traction of wealth management, and increase the proportion of current deposits through wealth management. At the same time Continue to drop the size and interest rate of medium and long -term deposits. We hope that these arrangements can stabilize the level of interest margin in the second half of the year. "

Under the reform of deposit interest rates, some industry analysts believe that the interest rate transmission mechanism of "MLF (medium -term loan convenience) -LPR and 10 -year Treasury bonds -deposit loan interest rate" has now become interest rate transmission mechanisms. MLF also affects deposit loans. This mechanism is regarded as a patch of the previous "MLF -LPR -Loan interest rate" model, and the stability difference mechanism was embedded.

"Since this year, the net interest difference between commercial banks has continued to narrow, and the cost of controlling bank liabilities is imperative." Wen Bin said that data from the China Banking Regulatory Commission shows that the net interest margin of commercial banks in the second quarter was 1.94%, which continued to narrow 3 from the first quarter. BP. This is mainly due to the impulse of the benefit entity and credit supply and demand, and the yield of bank's asset -end is declining. Since the second quarter, the deposit cost is significantly lower than the loan due to the severe period of deposit. The liquidity environment is relatively loose, and the capital interest rate runs ultra -low, so that banks can continue to enjoy low -cost market liability dividends, otherwise the narrowing pressure on net interest margins will be further prominent. At present, the contradiction between credit supply and demand is still large. The 5 -year LPR has a cumulative decrease of 35bp. After the re -pricing in the first quarter of next year, the bank's revenue will be largely squeezed. To this end Essence

According to Shao Chunyu, an analyst of China Merchants Bank, this policy reduces the cost of bank liabilities about 5 BPs. This policy constitutes a substantial benefit for the banking sector, and it also releases signals that the interest difference will not continue to be significantly unilaterally compressed, which is conducive to stabilizing the profitability of banks. In the second quarter of 2022, the average cost rate of the A -share listed bank's liabilities was 1.95%, and the quarterly decreased by 1 BP, mainly due to the decline in the cost of interbank liabilities. According to the calculation of the China Merchants Securities Team, this policy will eventually reduce the interest rate of about 7 BPs for bank deposit and reduce the cost of interest calculating liabilities by about 5 BPs, which can significantly alleviate the bank interest deviation pressure next year.

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