Promoting the economic recovery should use the sense of urgency of the time not to wait for the market entity to boost confidence

At present, macro policies have continued to boost the confidence of SMEs. The author recommends that all departments and localities should use the sense of urgency of time to boost the market entity to boost confidence, and to start the "confidence recovery war" as soon as possible.

Author: Zhang Aoping

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy has shocked in many rounds of internal epidemic, under the complicated and severe development environment of external globalization, geopolitical division and global inflation, holding down the downward pressure on the economy and stabilizing the economic market. However, the production and operation of market entities and small and medium -sized enterprises is still increasing. It is expected to continue to be weak and confidence, and the economy has still been greatly resistant to endogenous recovery.

On September 8, 2022, the State Council's special conference pointed out that "the current economic overall continues to recover, but there is a slight fluctuations, which is the barrier of the wind climbing, and must consolidate the foundation of economic recovery with a stronger sense of urgency." At the same time as the main body of the bailout protection market, the main body should promote the outstanding contradictions of insufficient effective demand, promote consumption recovery to become the main force, greater efforts to expand effective investment, create demand for market players and boost confidence. "

The economic recovery often requires "two steps". The first step is to invest in infrastructure investment, stabilize the economic market, and create effective market demand. In the second step, the private sector relays the government department, that is, the investment of private enterprises and residents consumption, and the economy achieves endogenous growth. Since entering the third quarter, the economic realization of a certain degree of reimbursement is the main reason is that government departments have made up their efforts to increase economic activities, and macro fiscal and monetary policy cooperate with infrastructure investment (infrastructure investment in the first half of the year increased by 7.1%year -on -year, and the foundation in July. Facilities investment increased by 11.5%year -on -year, an average of 1.8%year -on -year in the past two years), which has stabilized the economic market, but the second step of the "two steps" of the economic realization of recovery is difficult to achieve. The author believes that the fundamental reason is that the expectations and confidence of market players continue to be weaker.

From the perspective of PMI of economic operation PMI, although the data recorded in August has recovered from July, it continues to be in the contraction range (April 47.4%, May 49.6%, June 50.2%, July 49.0%, 8, 8 49.4%), it shows that my country's economic prosperity level has fluctuated since the month -on -month restoration, and the recovery foundation is still not firm. There is a resistance in endogenous recovery.

From the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises PMI, large -scale enterprises PMI rose to the expansion range in August, and small and small enterprises were still in the contraction range. Large -scale enterprise PMI was 50.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last month, and rose to the expansion range. The PMI of the medium -sized enterprise was 48.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Although the level of prosperity has improved, it is still in the contraction range. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the level of prosperity continued to decline. Large -scale enterprises PMI is promoted to the expansion range, reflecting the efforts of central enterprises and state -owned enterprises in infrastructure construction investment, while Chinese and small enterprises are mostly private enterprises, and they are more in the industry and downstream manufacturing enterprises and service companies, which are closer to the market. Demand. Therefore, the PMI of small and small enterprises has been in the contraction range for a long time, which not only reflects greater pressure on the production and operation of large enterprises, the development expectations and confidence continues to be weak, but also reflect the insufficient market demand.

The author believes that the prerequisite for the recovery of effective market demand is the development expectations and confidence of market players. Resident consumption in the private sector changes with the expectations of income. Only residents' income is expected to improve can residents increase consumption. Small and medium -sized enterprises that need to contribute more than 80%of urban labor and employment in cities and towns, that is, private enterprises in the private sector realize investment development, and the premise of enterprises to achieve investment development is confidence in development. Therefore, the premise of the private sector is that the company has the confidence in development. The greater the confidence, the greater the effort, and otherwise.

Secondly, from the advanced indicators of another economic operation, the social integration data in August also reflects the resistance of endogenous recovery in terms of total amount and structure, and it is difficult for the private sector to take over government departments. From the perspective of the total amount, the new social integration was 243 trillion yuan in August, a year -on -year increase to 557.1 billion yuan, which was a new low since the 2020 epidemic; Relding, but showing a trend of strong corporate sector and weak residential departments (the company's medium- and long -term loans have increased from less year -on -year to 213.8 billion yuan, and residents' medium- and long -term loans have decreased less year -on -year to 160.1 billion yuan), while corporate departments are strong. The main reason is that the improvement of infrastructure financing brought about by policy development financial instruments has improved, and it is not an increase in the development expectations and confidence in the development of private enterprises in private sector.

The author believes that compared with other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is that the unemployment rate is within 5.5%. In the face of the complex and severe international environment and arduous and heavy domestic reform and development and stability tasks, if the target of the unemployment rate can be kept, economic activities can operate normally, which is very successful. And small and medium -sized enterprises have contributed more than 80%of urban labor employment, and employment must first maintain small and medium -sized enterprises. As long as small and medium -sized enterprises have sufficient development confidence, employment positions will achieve endogenous benign expansion.

Recently, when the author communicates with some small and medium -sized entrepreneurs, I often hear a sentence, "My heart is not as good as before." Although the enterprise accompanied the economy from the "bottom of the valley", it gradually started normal production and operation activities, but its heart, that is, confidence has not fully recovered, this is also the "sequelae" caused by the multi -round impact of more than two years. Sometimes economic data is objective "cold", but subjective feelings are difficult to measure but more realistic, but the power of this "invisible hand" is extremely powerful. On September 13, 2022, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that "the key to stabilizing the economy must protect the market subject. Manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and the current difficulty of the market body is relatively difficult. "" Promoting the update of equipment updates and transformation of weak areas of economic and social development is conducive to expanding the needs of the manufacturing market, promoting consumption recovery to become the main force of economic streaming, and enhancing development stamina. In the fourth quarter, individual industrial and commercial households updated the transformation equipment to support national commercial banks actively investing in medium- and long -term loans with interest rates of not more than 3.2%. "

At present, macro policies have continued to boost the confidence of SMEs. The author recommends that all departments and localities should use the sense of urgency of time to boost the market entity to boost confidence, and to start the "confidence recovery war" as soon as possible. First of all, we must resolutely prevent the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the one -size -fits -all, and establish a long -term mechanism for preventing and controlling the epidemic situation according to the actual conditions of various localities, and be more scientific and precise. The subjective vitality to promote entrepreneurial spirit; again, for the policy adjustment of many industries in recent years, it is necessary to explain the policy orientation and principles, guide market expectations, and avoid the market entity of market players who have become confident due to unknown. From the perspective of the needs of the main body of the micro -market, implement the policy of helping the enterprise's rescue volume in the promulgation. Market subjects, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, resume confidence in future development. The "sequelae" of weak confidence in small and medium -sized enterprises after immunization has become "permanent trauma", which is also the foundation of Japan's painful lessons.

In the future, under the demands of the strong growth of the market, the economy has stood at the starting point of a new round of recovery. Market entities and investors also need to understand that the economic recovery has never been going on overnight, but gradually fluctuating. In addition, the upcoming 20th National Congress will also actively deploy the future. At present, we need to pick up the confidence of development, and catch the future of the future before we walk in the economic cycle curve.

(The author of the author Zhang Aopi Department of Extraction in this article)

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