Silicon purchasing frequently reflects the "long single lock" of tens of billions of large single -headed enterprises

From the perspective of observers of the domestic photovoltaic industry, silicon material as the longest and highest cost of the construction cycle in the photovoltaic industry chain. When facing the demand of downstream "blowouts", the mismatch occurs. It is expected that the supply is tight.

Author: Zheng Chenyi

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || At present, the total size of silicon materials signed by the four photovoltaic sectors has reached 858,300 tons, and the total amount signed by about is about 227.2 billion yuan.

伏 || In the process of frequently signed silicon materials for many photovoltaic companies to visit the industry, interviewees generally stated that the continuous shortage of silicon materials is still a big pain point in the photovoltaic industry. In the context, related companies seeking peace of mind through long single locks.

On September 14, Tianhe Guangneng (688599.SH) issued an announcement saying that the company signed a high -purity silicon long single procurement contract worth approximately 21.21 billion yuan with the company's South Glorid A (000012.SZ).

At this point, this is the fourth photovoltaic company with 10 billion -level silicon procurement long orders during the year.

According to statistics from reporters, since this year, four head photovoltaic sector companies including Tiantuang Energy, Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Shuangliang Energy -saving (600481.SH) and Crystal Energy (688223.SH) have already been A silicon procurement contract with a total amount of over 200 billion yuan was signed.

From the perspective of observers of the domestic photovoltaic industry, silicon material as the longest and highest cost of the construction cycle in the photovoltaic industry chain. When facing the demand of downstream "blowouts", the mismatch occurs. It is expected that the supply is tight.

"Each company also signs the form of long orders to ensure the company's supply chain stable." Zhang Peng told reporters.

Xu Shengqiang, deputy general manager of an photovoltaic component manufacturer in Anhui, also told the reporter of the Economic Observation Network that the signing of long orders can help lock the production capacity of silicon material companies, especially in the background of the current sideline supply of silicon materials.

Silicon material purchase tens of billions of long single -frequency reflection

Since the beginning of this year, in the context of the supply of silicon material and the continuous demand for downstream, the photovoltaic industry has repeatedly have a large single -land purchase in the photovoltaic industry.

On September 14, Tianheguang could announce that the company signed a high -purity silicon long single procurement contract with the company.

The announcement information shows that this time the purchase contract between Tianhe Light Energy and South Glass A stipulates that from 2023 to 2026, Tiansuang can purchase the total number of high -purity silicon materials with a total of 70,000 tons of high -purity silicon materials. The current market price is estimated that the total purchase amount from 2023-2026 is 212.12 billion yuan (including tax).

The reporter noticed that the estimated purchase amount of Tiantuangneng has exceeded the revenue realized by South Glass A throughout the year last year.

The announcement also stated that the procurement order signed this time will be determined by a monthly bargaining method. The final implementation amount may fluctuate with the market price.

"The signing of this long order purchase contract will provide a strong guarantee for the long -term stable supply of high -purity silicon material products of the company, which will help the company in a timely and effective market environment, and meet the company's future development strategic plan." The announcement said.

It is worth noting that on September 10th a few days ago, Jingke Energy also announced that the company will purchase about 382,800 tons of polysilicon silicon from September 2022 to December 2026, from September 2022 to December 2026 Products, the total amount of the contract is as high as 103.356 billion yuan.

Jingke Energy also stated that the signing of the procurement contract, through the long single -section of the lock -up price, monthly bargaining, and batch procurement, "guarantee the company's long -term stable supply of polysilicon raw materials."

In addition to the two companies mentioned above, there are two tens of billions of silicon long orders signed by Shuangliang Energy -saving and Longji Green During the year. Among them, on July 13, Shuangliang Energy Saving Announcement stated that it would be from 2023 to 2030. Purchasing 201,900 tons of polycrystalline silicon materials from new special energy (01799.HK) and other companies, with an estimated purchase amount of about 58.470 billion yuan; Earlier on March 22, Longji Green Energy announced that many subsidiaries of its subsidiaries have been in harmony with each other. A number of subsidiaries under Tongwei shares signed a two -year polysilicon procurement agreement. The contract agreed to procurement of 203,600 tons. The specific order price was discussed. The total amount of the contract was estimated to be approximately 44.2 billion yuan.

In this way, in total, the total size of the silicon material signed by the above four photovoltaic sectors has reached 858,300 tons, and the total amount signed by about 227.2 billion yuan.

In a research report released by East Asia Qianhai Securities on September 13, head silicon wafers have basically locked the output of the silicon material industry in 2022. At the same time, it is said that as the most closely binded silicon barbing end with the silicon material link, in recent years, major silicon wafer new and old manufacturers have sharply expanded the scale of production capacity. In 2021, the domestic silicon wafer production capacity reached 407GW, a year-on-year increase of 69.67%. 2017-2021, 2017-2021 The average annual growth rate of compounds is as high as 40.31%, and "the large -scale growth of the production capacity of silicon wafers has further increased the purchase demand for silicon materials."

The price of silicon material is still the industry sensitive point

In the process of visiting people in the industry frequently in the above -mentioned photovoltaic companies, interviewees generally told reporters that the continuous shortage of silicon materials is still a big pain point in the photovoltaic industry. In the context of retreating, related enterprises beings with long single locks.

On August 31, the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch last released the latest transaction price of domestic solar-grade silicon materials. Among them, the price range of domestic single crystal replica was 30.5-3.10 million yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 30.72 10,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%; the price range of single crystal-to-chili tight materials was 30.3-308 million yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 305,100 yuan/ton, and the perimeter increased by 0.43%. This is the 29th increase in the price of silicon materials during the year. "Congratulations to the Silicon Factory Huanti 29 -game winning streak. It is estimated that when it was announced next Thursday (September 8), the probability is still up." On August 31, the reporter joined a photovoltaic industry exchange group. The personnel sighed.

But then, on September 8th, when the market widely paid attention to whether polysilicon prices would usher in the 30th rise in the year, the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, which announced the price of silicon material, released it. However, it was released on its official WeChat public account The "Pushing Polycrystalline Silicon Collection Price Release" directly triggered heated market debate.

In the above notice, the Silicon Industry Branch stated that the price collection and release of the Anto (consulting and research institutions under the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association) have been adhering to "Concepts are released regularly every Wednesday and have a certain influence in the industry. But "Recently, due to the influence of multiple factors, the price of some supply chain continued to fluctuate, impacting the steady operation of the crystal silicon photovoltaic industry. In order to avoid excessive interpretation and misunderstanding of the price of polysilicon collected and released by Antako, it decided to stop this week and suspend the suspension of this. Collection price release ".

Regarding the release of the prices of polysilicon collection in the Silicon Industry Branch, Zhang Peng believes that one of the reasons "may be that some companies are unwilling to provide the latest polysilicon transaction price information."

"Polycrystalline silicon enterprises have some opinions on the market's constant rendering 'silicon material prices." Because the domestic polysilicon capacity in China is far from meeting the current market demand. The rise in prices is driven by downstream demand, but the market has continuously rendered downstream enterprises How uncomfortable, even caught the attention of the relevant departments, there are some misunderstandings here. "He further supplemented.

The reporter also noticed that at the 2022 photovoltaic industry chain supply forum held on July 20, Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that through the understanding of the installation of the provinces The model will increase the new installation prediction this year, and it is expected to achieve 85-100GW throughout the year.

In addition, according to the statistics of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, as of the end of July this year, there were 25 provinces (cities/autonomous regions) clearly clearly planned during the "14th Five -Year Plan" period. In terms of global markets, it is expected that the new installation will reach 205-250GW this year.

Zhang Peng believes that in the context of continuous demand for photovoltaic installations, the price of silicon material rises is more market behavior. Essence

So, can the silicon production capacity of many photovoltaic companies "grab" the production capacity of a number of photovoltaic companies eventually converted into photovoltaic components that meet market demand?

"A piece of polysilicon finally forms a component of components through the ingots, slices, batteries and other links. In the past two years, the photovoltaic field has pursued 'thinner and lighter', which also improves the overall production efficiency. At present Production of about 3.5GW components. "Xu Shengqiang, deputy general manager of an photovoltaic component company in Anhui, told reporters.

According to the data provided, the reporter further estimated that the quantity of the above four companies only expects to purchase silicon materials can eventually produce about 300GW photovoltaic components. This number is significantly higher than the predicted installed data of the above -mentioned institutions.

"Based on the moment, the production capacity of silicon materials is still a pain point." Liao Hanbo, the fund manager of the Great Wall Fund Rights Investment Department, pointed out to the reporter of the Economic Observation Network.

Liao Hanbo believes that the problem of silicon material in 2021 is the bottleneck problem of the industrial chain. This year has improved in an orderly manner. In the future, the capacity capacity of silicon material can also drive the industrial chain to accelerate the volume. The entire industrial chain is in the process of optimization.

He Chaohui, the new chief analyst of the National Lianlian Securities and Electricity, told reporters that with the end of the newly produced silicon material production capacity climbing and maintenance in September and October, the operating rate of mainstream manufacturers will return to the high level. In the fourth quarter, it was loosened at the end of the fourth quarter, and it fell to 25-26 million/ton at the end of the year. By the middle of next year, it could fall to about 200,000/ton.

How to supervise the new forces of "algorithm supervisors" to break through the "giants": pre -sale explosion order is equipped with domestic post -domestic wave cracking luxury car "ceiling" Chinese enterprise "successor" portrait: digitalization is changing the future of family enterprises

- END -