Lao Zheng Speaking ｜ CPI super expected US dollar rises significantly

The US dollar rose sharply this Tuesday, the incentive is that the US price exceeded expectations in August, which strengthened the market's expectations of the Fed's radical interest rate hike. Non -US currency fell, but the pound fell slightly. Both the United States and the United Kingdom have significant interest rate hike pressures. The pressure on Britain's interest rate hikes seems to be greater. This should be the main cause of the British pound recently. Next week, the Fed ’s interest rate hike 75 base points can almost be determined in advance. In the official announcement, the probability of the US dollar will maintain a strong strength before, but there may not be a reasons for further rising. Among them, the trend of the line depends to a large extent on the Fed's statement at the interest rate hike conference.

The Federal Reserve will talk about next week

The US dollar rose sharply this Tuesday, and the US dollar fluctuated on Wednesday and Thursday.

The specific situation of the US price data is: August CPI rose 8.3%year -on -year, and expected to rise by 8.1%, and the previous value rose by 8.5%in July; the core CPI in August rose 6.3%year -on -year Essence In the main sub -items that constitute the CPI, residential points rose sharply, and energy sub -items fell sharply.

Energy is a variety of high volatility, and other living costs such as housing have certain inertia and rigidity, so CPI is even more terrible from other living costs. The average hourly salary of Americans rose by about 5.2%year -on -year, obviously not as inflation rates, that is, while the salary increase, it is more poorer, which is obviously not conducive to the current midterm elections. However, the Democratic Party scores well in other respects, and inflation is expected to cause the party's midterm election to "turn over the ship."

The US CPI data announced on Tuesday has made the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate interest rate hike in September 22, and 75 base points have almost become a foregone conclusion, and the Fed’ s interest rate conference in November still has the opportunity to raise interest rates sharply. Most of the market participants believe that the Fed will raise interest rates at 75 base points this time, and even a few people think that they will raise interest rates 100 basis points.

If the interest rate meeting is not counted next week, there will be two interest rate meetings during the year. These two interest rate meetings may raise interest rates. It is nothing more than the issue of how much. Obviously, the Fed's attitude is one of the important interest rate hits.

Overnight and stable yen

The yen has shocked in the past two weeks. When the US dollar is strong, this trend is actually good, and it can even be said that there are some signs of stability. However, there is no support on the basis of the yen. The reason why it can be stabilized is that on the one hand, the support comes from the market that the Japanese financial authorities will "intervene" the foreign exchange market, and on the other hand, the Japanese yen itself has fallen over.

Although some people in the market expect that the Japanese financial authorities may interfere with the exchange market more, from the current situation, it is only at most oral intervention and there is no substantial measure.

The yield of US Treasury bonds has increased significantly this week, which makes the yen spreads greater, so the fundamentals of the yen are still weakening. The decline in crude oil has brought some support on the yen, but the overall support is relatively limited. The reason is that the yen depreciation has undergone the impact of crude oil falls and caused a large deficit of Japanese trade.

Japan just announced trade data on Thursday, showing that the Japanese trade deficit in August was 281.73 trillion yen, the largest deficit since 1979, and the deficit lasted for 13 months.

Although the fundamentals are poor, the support brought by the yen's oversupply is getting stronger and stronger, and investors have to prevent the Japanese yen from drastically. When a certain currency is overly declined, in case a certain reason, it will rebound, and its strength will be great, and at least the lethality is not small in the short term.

Daily Economic News

- END -