21 Talking about "Lithium" | Breaking through the 500,000 yuan mark!Lithium carbonate price increase chain survey: crazy scattered order "premium"

21st Century Economic Herald reporter Dong Peng Cheng Peng Chengdu report

Compared with the first quarter, lithium carbonate has risen a mild up so far, and it is not until September that the rise has accelerated.

According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of September 15, the average price of the domestic battery -level lithium carbonate market has reached 510,000 yuan/ton, which is 2,000 yuan from yesterday. At the same time, the price is very close to the historical high in March this year. At that time, the average price was 517,000 yuan/ton.

It should be pointed out that the above -mentioned price sample is a weighted average price, which itself is slightly lower than the actual market transaction price, and the price of the latter market will be higher.

"The price of salt lake lithium salt exceeds 515,000 yuan, and the price of some manufacturers has reached 517,000 yuan, which has been higher than the quotation of some ore lithium -lifting enterprises." Chen Yangyang, an analyst of Fubao Information Lithium, said on the 14th. The reason is that the supply is tight. Many people cannot get the supply.

This newspaper has recently reported that the composition of the supply of the loan market is mainly based on Qinghai Salt Lake lithium, such as Lanke, Tibet, and Dongtai Ginaer. Small factories, a small amount of quasi -electricity carbon in Jiangxi.

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that, in addition to being controlled by the Qinghai epidemic, lithium salt transportation was affected to a certain extent, the source of loose units that could not directly enter the downstream manufacturers, and they needed to go through the dealers, traders and other links. Only 470,000 yuan/ton product increased the price, and finally pushed the transaction price of the loan market.

From the perspective of the current market price conduction chain, the rise in the prices of loose orders has further raised the average market price collected by the quotation agency, and the factory price of the mainstream lithium salt factory products with reference to its price.

Price conduction chain

Lithium carbonate was originally not a commodity, and its price formation mechanism was significantly different from copper and aluminum varieties.

The latter has a reference of unified and relatively authoritative authority worldwide, that is, the price of LME non -ferrous metal futures. The former has no authoritative price so far, and domestic lithium -salt futures are still brewing.

To figure out the rise in lithium prices, we must start with its price formation mechanism.

The price of the lithium salt market is not transparent enough, but benefited from the existence of the industry and comprehensive quotation platform, so that sellers and investors can observe the continuous price trend.

As far as the lithium salt market is concerned, the current market mainstream quotation agencies include Asian metal networks, Shanghai Nonferrous, Baichuan Yingfu, and Antaiko.

The quotation provided by the above institutions is also cited by seller agencies and listed companies, which can be seen from the seller's research newspaper and listed companies regularly.

Due to the different sources of price collection and statistical methods, the specific price difference between the above institutions is slightly different, but the specific price changes are the same.

Taking September 8 as an example, the price of lithium carbonate in Shanghai non -ferrous domestic battery -grade is 494,000 yuan/ton, Antako price is 496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Baichuan Yingfu is 501,000 yuan/ton, but it is compared to August in August. Obviously upstream.

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporters learned that there are two types of lithium salt factory shipments. One is to sign a long -term supply contract directly with the downstream. It is an order for the Changxie, and the other is to sell directly for the market. The pick -ups are more complicated. The downstream companies, dealers, and traders are all available. This is a scattered order.

The method is different, the corresponding transaction price is different, and the price of the single order is significantly higher.

On September 5, the quotation data provided by a downstream purchaser showed that the actual transaction price had exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation reached 51 to 520,000 yuan.

The above -mentioned price is significantly higher than the quotation of institutions such as Shanghai Nonferrous Colors, and it is also significantly higher than the manufacturer's factory price. Because the sales price of lithium carbonate given publicly the day before the salt lake shares was only 470,000 yuan/ton.

"The downstream factories that signed a long -term contract can even be lower than the price of 40,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton of the market price." Chen Yangyang said.

It can be seen that if the current market price is sorted from high to low, it is the average price of the quotation institution statistics> the average price of the quotation agency> The price of the lithium salt enterprise is issued> the order price of the downstream long -term association.

There is a certain connection between the above prices, because the average price of the quotation agency will consider the price of the latest actual transactions representing the market.

At the same time, the adjustment of the price of lithium salt companies' own products will refer to the average price of the above quotation agencies, which have previously responded publicly.

In this regard, there are also lithium -salt companies saying that "the scattered order belongs to a forward, and the large factory dares not to rashly adjust the price, but adjusts with the market price level. This is why the actual sales price of relevant listed companies lag behind the market price. one."

In this way, the entire price conduction chain has been very clear, that is, the rising price increase brings a series of prices to rise, leading the upward of the price of the entire lithium salt.

Solid single quality secondary price

Chen Yangyang held the same point of view of the above -mentioned purchaser's "composition of the sources of the single market".

According to his feedback, at present, in the market, there is basically no lithium salt in lithium -boned lithium -boned leading lithium in Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium Industry.

This is in line with the 21st Century Business Herald. Taking Tianqi Lithium Industry as an example, since the rise of lithium salt and tight supply in the second half of 2021, the company has stopped selling to traders, but directly supplying customers in the industrial chain.

"Lithium salt sales of Lanke and Ministry of Festivals pass through dealers. At the same time, there are traders to pick up the goods behind the dealers. express.

As a result, the price of lithium carbonate in salt lakes was 470,000 yuan/ton, but the transaction price of the loan market could reach 490,000, or a higher price.

Even the recent salt lake carbonate on the market has surpassed lithium carbonate of ore with higher costs.

The quotation information provided by Chen Yangyang is that on September 14, the quotation of the battery -level lithium carbonate of the Ministry of Salt Lake was 517,000 yuan/ton.

This is unreasonable to his opinion. Because in addition to lowering the cost of lithium salt lake, the quality of the products of lithium salt lake can not be compared with lithium carbonate produced by ore. However, some small indicators cannot be reached, mostly mixed with some good -quality electric carbon. "

The above is the cause of lithium carbonate increased by the industry's internal pricing mechanism. The recent rise in lithium salt also includes the staged stimulus caused by some occasional events.

Baichuan Yingfu tracked the output data. In August this year, the domestic lithium carbonate output was about 33,400 tons, which maintained a high -speed growth year -on -year, but nearly 4 percentage points in a month -on -month decrease.

It can be seen that the output of the region can be seen further that Jiangxi's output grew in the month, Qinghai's output remained stable, and Sichuan had decreased by 30%from the previous month. Obviously, the local capacity was affected by a certain "power limit production".

In addition, the salt lake lithium, which is the main supply of supply in the market, is affected by the poor local epidemic traffic, and the lithium salt transportation has been restricted.

"Recently, I can't go to Qinghai to sign a contract. The supply of loose units on the market has decreased. At the same time, there are still long orders signed by Qinghai Lithium Salt Enterprises. Finding goods on the market has further pushed up the transaction price of scattered orders. "The aforementioned downstream buyers pointed out.

Of course, the two main production areas of Sichuan and Qinghai are only phased effects. If the return of lithium salt prices return in the long run, it is necessary to reduce the flow of lithium salt in salt lake, increase the direct supply ratio of downstream, and more more than the lower reaches, as well as more than the lower reaches. Increase domestic resource development in the long run.

In the first half of the year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that this year, it will appropriately accelerate the development of domestic lithium and nickel resources to crack down on unclear competition such as hoarding and raising prices. "

Among them, strengthening supervision measures may also focus on the distribution market concentrated by dealers and traders.

How can I run for 4 months?

Seeing lithium carbonate rising, the industry's market expectations of the remaining 4 months have become optimistic, and even the market has risen to 600,000 yuan per ton in the market.

"The high price of this round is higher than the first half of the year, which is a relatively common expectation, because the price cannot fall in mid -September, and the market in the second half of the year is basically determined." Chen Yangyang said.

Its core logic is that this node in mid -September is very special. Then to the freezing period to high -altitude areas such as Qinghai and Tibet, the output of salt lakes will reproduce the decline of "seasonality". However, this is only expected whether it is necessary to observe the changes in the output data of the salt lake.

As for the expected price of 600,000 yuan, interviewees believe that the possibility is less likely.

"Unlike the first quarter, the industry now has certain psychological expectations for rising prices. Although supply and demand are still tight, the downstream of about 500,000 yuan is very conflict. At the same time, risks from policy regulation cannot be ignored." Chen Yangyang It means that the recent lithium salt price adjustment is obviously gentle than the first quarter.

The aforementioned lithium salt person believes that the current price can be stabilized. It is already a good situation. "Market sentiment is very important. The rise in the first quarter is because the industry growth is strong. After the policy concentrated stimulation, the terminal demand of new energy vehicles has been released ahead of time, so the data in the consumption season may not be expected. "

Even if the lithium price stops here, it will not change the situation where related companies have increased their profit throughout the year.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Price Data, in the second quarter, the average price of lithium carbonate in the domestic battery -level lithium carbonate was 47.12 million yuan/ton, and the average price of 477,900 yuan/ton has been maintained in the third quarter, which continues to maintain a high level.

In contrast, the dependent variables that need to be noticed are the cost end, because the rise in Australian imports in the third quarter is very obvious. The domestic price from the shore to the shore has risen from about $ 4,200 per ton in the second quarter to nearly 6,400 US dollars.

On the other hand, in addition to a very few self -sufficient companies in domestic lithium salt companies, most of the raw materials of lithium salt plants are mainly imported from Australia, and the increase in costs will directly threaten their profit margins.

In this regard, Shengxin Lithium has feedback on September 14 that "(ore price increase) will increase some costs. The self -sufficiency rate of the company's raw materials is about 20%. Lithium concentrates are originally available in Australia and China. "

The lithium concentrate supply contract signed by it is also not quoted. After Australia's lithium concentrate rises, its procurement price has increased accordingly.

However, because the company has previously prepared a certain low -cost inventory, it may have the effect of a certain smooth cost curve. The overall cost increases may be slightly less than the lithium concentrate increase in the same period.Judging from the elegant group that has disclosed the performance trailer, the company's self -sufficiency rate is also not high. The company's expected net profit in the first three quarters will be 3.462 billion yuan to 3.662 billion yuan.

Judging from the company's second quarter profit, the size of the third quarter was between a slightly increasing improvement in a small and peaceful increase in the third quarter.

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