Behind the "interest rate cuts" of the six major bank deposits: State -owned bank liabilities in the first half of the year rebounded against the trend

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Tianzheng Shenzhen reported on September 15th, six state -owned commercial banks of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank announced that they will announce that since September 15, 2022 Adjust the listing interest rate of RMB deposits.

The interest rates of the three -year deposit (reinforcement) of the six major banks were adjusted to 2.60%, which was 15bp from previously reduced. In addition to the postal savings bank, the interest rates of the five big banks 3, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 5 -year interest rates were adjusted to 1.25%, 1.45%, 1.65%, and, respectively 2.15%and 2.65%, postaluming banks were adjusted for 6 months and one -year regular deposits (rectification) interest rates to 1.46%and 1.68%, all of which decreased by 10bp compared to previously.

Since this year, bank interest deviations have been under pressure, and the cost of interest rate calculation liabilities of state -owned banks has risen by 4.5bp. In the first half of the year, the average cost of interest rate calculation liabilities of listed banks was 2.25%, which was only 2.7bp down from the end of last year, and the downward speed was significantly lower than expected.

Bank interest margins have continued to increase at the same time. Since 2015, the net interest difference between commercial banks has declined, and in recent years, it has basically stabilized around 2%. In the second quarter of 2022, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.94%, a new low since 2010.

With the continuous decline in the rate of return on the asset end of commercial banks, the lower interest rate of liabilities is also an inevitable trend, and the reduction of deposit interest rates is conducive to relieving the narrowing pressure of the interest difference.

State -owned interest rate calculation liability costs rebounded against the trend

On September 15, ICBC, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank announced that they announced that they would adjust the listing interest rate of RMB deposits from September 15, 2022.

In June 2021, the market interest rate pricing self -discipline mechanism optimized the determination method of the upper limit of the deposit interest rate self -discipline. In April 2022, the central bank guided interest rate self -discipline mechanism to establish a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates. Members of the self -regulatory mechanism bank refer to the bond market interest rate represented by the 10 -year Treasury yield and the loan market interest rate represented by the 1 -year LPR, and reasonably adjust the level of deposit interest rates. The establishment of this mechanism can promote banks to track market interest rate changes, enhance the market -oriented pricing capacity of deposit interest rates, and maintain the healthy competition order of the deposit market.

However, at present, the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates is still limited to reducing deposit interest rates, and the cost of deposit is still increasing. Data show that in the first half of this year, the average cost rate of the interest calculation liabilities of listed banks was 2.25%, which was only 2.7bp from the end of last year. The downward speed is significantly lower than expected. Among them, the cost of state -owned interest rate calculation liabilities rose 4.5bp against the trend. The average cost liabilities of stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks declined 3.4bp, 5bp and 3bp, respectively.

At the same time, banks have continued to face the pressure of narrowing interest margins. Since 2015, the net interest difference between commercial banks has continued to decline, and in recent years, it has basically stabilized near 2%. At the end of 2021, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 2.08%. In the second quarter of 2022, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.94%, a new low since 2010.

The semi -annual report shows that in the first half of this year, CCB's net interest yield was 2.09 %, a year -on -year decrease of 4bp; the net interest yield of ICBC was 2.03 %, a year -on -year decrease of 9bp; The difference is 1.76 %, which is basically the same as the same period last year.

The difference in net interest rates of different commercial banks is also different. At the end of 2021, the net interest margin of private banks was 3.72%, foreign -funded behavior was 1.55%, and large commercial banks and joint -stock banks were 2.04%and 2.13%, respectively.

In contrast, the most active 10 -year Treasury bond of the banking market transaction remains nearly 3%, which is higher than the net interest margin.

It is key to reduce the cost of liability at a strong willingness to reduce the cost of liabilities

On the whole, in the second half of this year, the net interest rate difference still had downward pressure.

In the semi -annual performance conference, the president of Agricultural Bank of China said that the predicted net interest margin will be under pressure to a certain extent.

"Under the low interest rate market environment, the interest margins of commercial banks will face certain downward pressure." Guo Mang, vice president of Bank of Communications, said at the semi -annual performance conference that from the asset side, the early LPR was lowered, and the second quarter was new. The interest rate of loan loans has decreased rapidly, and the performance of continuous influence on the interest difference; while on the liability side, due to the decline in the decline of residents and corporate investment and consumption willingness, the trend of regular deposits is more obvious, the cost of liabilities is difficult to go down, and a certain degree of rigidity occurs.

Reducing the cost of liabilities is the key. Guo Mang added that reducing the cost of liabilities is the top priority of maintaining the level of maintenance differences. Next, the Bank of China will increase the expansion of the deposit of current deposits on the one hand, and strive to increase the proportion of current deposits. The cost of liabilities is based on both ends of the liabilities and asset ends.

According to data released by the central bank, the RMB deposit increased by 1.882 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.77 trillion yuan year -on -year. Among them, household deposits increased by 1.033 trillion yuan, non -financial corporate deposits increased by 5.3 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 506.1 billion yuan, and non -bank financial institutions deposits increased by 951.3 billion yuan. In June, RMB deposits increased by 483 trillion yuan, an increase of 974.1 billion yuan year -on -year.

In addition, according to the second quarter of 2022 issued by the central bank, the urban storage household questionnaire survey report, 23.8%of the residents tended to "more consumption", an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter; 58.3%of the residents tended to "savings", and 58.3%. A 3.6 percentage points were increased from last quarter; residents tended to "more investment" accounted for 17.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities Banking Industry, said that the deposit interest rate was reduced to relieve the bank interest deviation pressure, especially the LPR of more than five years since the beginning of the year has lowered 35bp, which will bring tremendous pressure on the interest margin of 2023, and forced the bank to reduce the bank. Deposit interest rate. This time, it is carried out in the form of an interest rate self -discipline pricing mechanism, including the upper limit of the time limit deposits, including the current deposit, which will play an active role in the bank's pressure -deductible deposit interest rate and alleviate the poly difference pressure.

According to China Merchants Securities, this policy will eventually reduce the interest rate of bank deposit about 7bp, reduce the cost of interest rate calculation liabilities about 5bp, which can significantly alleviate the interest deviation pressure next year.

Fitch Bohua predicts in the research report on August 18 that the level of net interest difference between commercial banks may continue to be under pressure during the year. Some urban commercial banks and agricultural banks are subject to the natural disadvantage of grabbing reserve capacity, and the cost of liabilities in the downward environment of interest rates has decreased low. In addition to the downward rate of the asset -removal of loans, the yield of loans is affected by market interest rates, and high -yield structured and non -standard investment will also be subject to the scale of the implementation of new asset management regulations. Below than the average level of commercial banks.

Federal Bohua analysts said that large -scale commercial banks and joint -stock banks have increased in recent years, which has slowed down the narrowing of net interest margins to a certain extent. Urban Commercial Bank and Rural Commercial Bank are generally low in the scale of non -loan biological interest rates, and the increase in the deposit ratio is also facing great pressure. The downside of the asset -side yield on its interest margin is difficult to reduce the proportion of loans by increasing the proportion of loans.

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