The manufacturing industry is still expected to be the stabilizer of China's economy in the second half of the year

Since 2022, multiple factors have disturbed

The growth rate of manufacturing production has slowed down

The growth rate of investment is maintained at a higher position

Under the impact of the impact of the epidemic and the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the pressure of shrinkage facing manufacturing companies in the second quarter of this year has increased significantly in the second quarter of this year. Although the impact of the epidemic has slowed down since May, and the Chinese economy has gradually emerged from the "dark moment", the demand environment faced by manufacturing companies is still more severe.

The recovery of manufacturing production is an important force to promote China's outbreak in 2020. The bright performance of manufacturing investment has strongly drove domestic demand from 2021 to the present. Since 2022, the production growth rate of manufacturing has slowed down under multiple factors, but investment growth has remained in a higher position. Compared with the two -year compound growth rate of 6.6 % from 2020 to 2021 after the epidemic occurred (the compound growth rate of 2018 to 2019 before the epidemic was 6.2 %), the increase in manufacturing from January to July 2022 increased The value growth rate fell 3.9 percentage points to 2.7 %.

The high -level operation of manufacturing investment in the first seven months of this year is an important support point for domestic demand. From January to July, the cumulative year -on -year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 9.9 %. The absolute level is still at a higher position since 2017. The horizontal comparison is also the strongest project in fixed asset investment. In the first 7 months, China's manufacturing investment presents the following characteristics: the contribution rate of the construction industry chain related industries to manufacturing investment has declined; the contribution rate of export industry chain related industries to manufacturing investment has increased overall The investment contribution rate in the consumer industry has increased.

In general, from January to July, the raw material sector's dragging on the added value of the manufacturing industry is the most obvious. The growth rate of investment has declined rapidly, and the support for manufacturing investment has weakened; the added value of the downstream consumer industry has declined with the overall simultaneous decline in the manufacturing industry. , Its capital expenditure is weakly repaired; the production growth rate of the midstream manufacturing industry has also slowed down, but the absolute level is still the highest among the three major sections, and the contribution rate of investment in manufacturing is still high.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the production of China's manufacturing industry is expected to be driven by infrastructure support and consumption recovery, and the monthly growth rate is expected to gradually recover to around 5 %. In the scene of weakening and weakening, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is facing a certain end -of -end pressure. It is expected that the growth rate of manufacturing investment can stabilize at more than 6 % throughout the year. Specifically:

The raw material sector is expected to stabilize in the context of the decline in real estate but but the bottom of the infrastructure. In the sub -industry: Non -metal mineral products are more affected by real estate demand than infrastructure, or they will be dragged down; chemicals and non -ferrous metal processing industries or benefit from exported energy cost advantages, automobiles and new energy demand driven, relative performance More stronger.

At the same time, the midstream manufacturing sector has benefited from the high level of export prosperity, the workload of infrastructure physical objects has gradually been formed, and the automotive and new energy industry chain has increased rapidly. The downward pressure of real estate alone has a slight dragging on it. Under the promotion of demand factor resonance, the production growth rate of the midstream manufacturing industry may rise steadily, but its investment demand has been released quickly in the early stage, and it is difficult to maintain a high level under the expected weakness. In the sub -industry: the electrical equipment is supported by the demand for new energy, the instrument industry is more sensitive to changes in infrastructure demand, and the relatively performance may be stronger. Metal products have strong demand in the background of the container lack. The influence is relatively weak.

However, the hidden concerns faced by the midstream manufacturing sector lies in the problem of contraction of foreign demand. China's export growth may fall in the fourth quarter or at the end of the year. As the monetary policy of major economies such as Europe and the United States quickly tighten the rapid tightening of inflation, economic recession may be an unavoidable price. If the subsequent exports fall, the demand for multiple sub -industries in the manufacturing industry, especially the high -capital expenditure industry, will have a great impact.

The downstream consumption sector has benefited from the slow recovery of domestic consumption demand, and the demand for overseas travel is supported by the optional consumer goods represented by textile clothing, production or weak repairs; due to its capital expenditure continued to shrink in the past two years, the investment demand for early delay may be The heating of production is gradually released. In the sub -industry: the automobile manufacturing industry is a relatively highlight, but the wood processing and furniture manufacturing industry dragged down by the real estate, the agricultural and sideline product processing industry of grain and meat price increases, and the relative performance of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry driven by the prevention and control of the epidemic It may be weak.

However, with the gradual implementation and effectiveness of the steady growth policy, corporate cash flow is expected to usher in improvement, and it is expected that the growth rate of manufacturing investment will stabilize more than 6 % throughout the year. The basis for this judgment is that on the basis of stabilizing the investment confidence of enterprises and enhancing their willingness to invest in: First, the tax refund of fiscal policy has been completed by 2.1 trillion yuan. It is assumed that the manufacturing related enterprises will use the 300 billion yuan of them to invest. About 1.2 percentage points in the growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2022. Second, monetary policy supports manufacturing loans, assuming that scientific and technological innovation re -loans, carbon emission reduction support tools have a total investment scale of more than 200 billion yuan, according to 60 % support ratio, 80 % of which are invested in manufacturing fixed asset investment projects, you can pry up More than 260 billion yuan of incremental funds can also help the growth rate of investment in manufacturing 1.1 percentage points. Third, in terms of direct financing, steadily promoting the comprehensive registration system, it is expected that the equity financing of listed manufacturing enterprises will increase by 120 billion yuan year -on -year; smooth bond financing channels, and use green bonds and specialized new corporate bonds as the starting point to drive the manufacturing industry The net financing of corporate bonds is righteous, that is, a decrease of 30 billion yuan year -on -year. The two provided a total of about 150 billion yuan in incremental funds, which can drive about 0.6 percentage points of the growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2022. In addition, policies such as follow -up or further introducing targeted fiscal subsidies, loan discounts, and tax returns are also beneficial to improving corporate cash flow and stable manufacturing investment.

(The author is the chief economist of Ping An Securities)

Send 2022.9.19 Total Issue 1061 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: Manufacturing is still expected to be a stabilizer of China's economy in the second half of the year

Author: Zhong Zhengsheng

Edit: Wang Xiaoxia

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

- END -