Breakthrough OR triple bottom?——Doda Investment Notes

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

Seeing the performance of the market today, honestly, Da Ge was a little numb in his heart. Seeing that the broader market stepped step by step, it turned out to be predicted at the beginning of the month. He didn't return his head and did not have a sense of accomplishment. Instead, he felt uncomfortable.

In the afternoon, I did n’t look at the market. After two:30, the market was drawn down. It felt very embarrassing. The market ’s rise and fall data was placed there. The rebound of individual stocks was very limited, and the market sentiment was very sluggish. After visiting the communication platform to see everyone's discussion, I feel that it is time to have a bowl of chicken soup.

To tell the truth, as a "old leek" who has carried multiple rounds of disadvantaged markets, Dago really felt nothing about this round of adjustment. After the opening of the market for more than 4 months after the beginning of this year, don't you all survive it?

It was almost a whole year in 2018. At that time, the shareholders almost scolded for a year, and did they end up in the end? Looking at the track stocks today, it is also the four months after suffering.

I mentioned a professional statistics before, the stock market contributed almost all the gains in 1%in 1%. Conversely, the decline was the same; let alone the empty emotions were quickly released, so there was no need to worry about it. More time, the stock market is shocking, just a word "boil".

As long as you survive, protect the principal and usher in a new round of spring breeze, you will usher in vitality. So think about how to survive before, remembering bitterness and sweetness, you can be indifferent.

Friends who often see Dago's hands should be clear. At the beginning of this month, I have made clear predictions on the market situation. I have been reminding everyone to be cautious. I want to come to many friends. Adjustment should be spiritual, good hunters, be good at waiting.

So after today's adjustment, is the market bottomed out?

At present, there are two mainstream views of the market bottom: one group believes that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will stop falling near 3155 points to build a triple bottom.

To be honest, it is difficult for Dago to assert on which one of these two views is correct. Stock trading is more to respond. Under the premise of respecting the market, according to the situation of the market, you can make corresponding countermeasures.

Personally, the market has not stopped falling at the current market. Although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index came to the lower edge of the box vibration after today's decline, it was impossible to see signs of stopping. However, from the perspective of the disk, today's emotions have freezing points, and the empty emotions have been greatly vented. It is still difficult to continue such a heavy frustration.

This means that the broader market will be repaired in the short term. The method that Dago mentioned before 80 % of the power decline is still applicable, but remember to be a small position. As for whether the broader market is a triple bottom or a decline, this repair is very critical. If it can rebound sharply and can make up the gap, the probability of triple bottoms is not small.

And another very tempting trend needs to be careful. Remember a trend structure mentioned these days? The box shock near the front high is usually a way to resolve stress, and it is likely to continue the original trend in the future. Conversely, the disadvantaged shock near the front low is the same reason, and this structure is easy to make people step on the pit.

After chatting the index, then the sector. Circuit stocks are obviously the culprit of the market adjustment today. After the previous round of rising, this direction has grown into a plate with considerable weights in A shares. Therefore, its performance is not good, and the market is often not good. It is precisely because of this that the GEM fell like this. Da Ge's view of the GEM yesterday was beaten.

It can explain the decline of photovoltaic from European messages, but the adjustment of track stocks is not just because of this. The market volume today is a considerable part of the contribution of track stocks. Yesterday, there were media reports that the current proportion of public funds in new energy reached 40%, which is the highest record of all sectors in the history of A shares. The passage is so crowded that people outside cannot pick up the plate at this position, and when the wind blows grass, it is easy to kill more.

The new energy direction may change from rapid decline to slowing down, and the impact on A shares will gradually weaken. In the short term, the sector index may still need to have a decline after a shocking, so that there will be good repair.

Surprisingly is bank stocks. Several large banks have lowered deposit interest rates. It is a profit for banks that eat interest differences, but bank stocks do not fall, but instead open. In this comparison, the A -share fell sharply today, but it is not surprising. Anyway, everyone does not play cards anyway.

The bank's interest rate cut, and the real estate is naturally happy. The real estate sector has risen against the trend, and market sources say that non -Suzhou local residents do not need to provide social security payment certificates to buy a house directly. In response, relevant persons from the Suzhou Real Estate Market and Trading Management Center responded that there is no official documentation yet, but it is optimized to optimize the housing qualification review system of the trading management system. The specific situation needs to be learned from the local trading centers.

Recently, there are news about real estate every day. The market has gradually relaxed this, and the entire industrial chain is expected to gradually recover.

Yesterday, it was said that the real estate sector was supporting the short -term support level. It was a good phenomenon. Today, it is continuing to consolidate the results. The current position can be stabilized. It does not rule out that there will be good performance in the future.Other other views such as coal, port shipping, logistics, retail, etc. can refer to the previous views.It should be noted that in the market state of shocks, it cannot be chased or reinstated.In terms of short -term, the downturn's emotions are still continuing.However, from the perspective of daily limit stocks, Youtu recently liked to play an N -shaped structure, which is still affected by the sluggish market.As long as the indicators of the number of stocks, the height of the board, and the daily limit gradient have not improved, even if they participate, they need to converge.

I do n’t write the point summary today. I have said it before. In short, two ways to respond.When there is a lot of concerns in the market, you can try it, but don't be aggressive, don't have to reconcile, you must protect your principal.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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