A variety of indicators release the positive signal economy continues to recover

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 15th. The "China Securities News" published an article on the 15th "A number of indicators to release the positive signal economy continued to recover". The article states that the economic operation data in August is about to be released. Industry insiders expect that with a series of stable growth policies, the effects of steady growth are gradually emerging, and the main indicators are expected to rise in August. Combined with a number of high -frequency data and first -line indicators, the economic maintenance has been restored since September. It is expected that economic growth in the third quarter will rise significantly compared with the second quarter. The continuous and effective efforts of the stable growth policy are further consolidating the rise of the economy.

The demand is obvious

From a series of economic indicators, the current demand is more obvious.

On the one hand, commodity demand began to recover. The latest announcement of the China Logistics and Procurement Federation is 102.3%of the Chinese commodity index in August, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to the highest level since May 2021. It shows Essence "In September, the peak season of traditional construction is coming. Domestic demand for domestic products is expected to improve further. In addition, the policy is favorable. It is expected that market confidence will be resumed. The domestic commodity market is basically established." China Logistics and Procurement Federation said.

Thanks to policy support, car consumption demand is strong. According to statistics from the Federation of Federation, the retail market in the passenger car in August reached 1.871 million, an increase of 28.9%year -on -year. The Linglian Association believes that the accelerated advancement of cars and the coming of the peak season of the auto market will drive a new round of car consumption and bring considerable increases.

The year -on -year growth rate of consumption is expected to rise. Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing predicts that the year -on -year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in August will rise from 2.7%in July to 4.2%.

On the other hand, investment demand is accelerated. According to incomplete statistics from the China Securities Journal, since September, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places have signed and completed a number of major projects. Wang Qing predicts that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first August will rise to 7.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be further accelerated. The year -on -year growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to be close to 10%, far exceeding the growth level of 0.4%of the previous year.

Industrial production remain tough

From the perspective of production, industrial production remain tough. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) in August was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

"In August, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, of which the production index was flat at 49.8%, indicating that although the manufacturing production did not slow down significantly, although the manufacturing production was affected by factors such as the epidemic." Bin expects that the year -on -year growth rate of industrial added value will increase from 3.8%in July to 3.9%.

Data map, Xinhua News Agency sent

Entering September, with adverse factors such as local epidemic and high temperature weather, industrial production continued to recover.

In the production workshop of Sichuan Pin Reconstruction Co., Ltd., more than 300 professional workers are scattered in all aspects of the production line, and they are busy turning steel plates into the original steel of different specifications. "In August, our production progress was affected by some. Next, we must work overtime to finish the accumulated order and strive to sprint the annual goals of the year!" On the first day of the Mid -Autumn Festival, Chen Hu, general manager of Sichuan Pin Reconstruction Co., Ltd. Send a call to all employees to sprint the annual target task.

High -frequency data also shows that the production is positive. Last week, the nationwide nationwide threaded steel production continued to rise; the weekly index of the operating rate of asphalt device rose to 39.7%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points from the previous month; thread, PVC (polyvinyl chloride), coking, PTA (refined phenylebenonic acid acid acid acid acid acid acid acid ) The operating rate of the industry is up.

"The peak demand season is coming, and the relief of local epidemics and high temperature weather, which will help the resumption of industrial production. It is expected that industrial production in the third quarter will stabilize and recover." Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of Caixin Research Institute.

Policy formation

In the context of demand recovery and recovery of production, the economy continues to resume development.

According to the report released by CITIC Securities, benefiting from the continuous release of the policy effect, the growth of investment and consumption will continue to rise. It is expected that economic growth in the third quarter will increase significantly compared with the second quarter. Chen Xing, chief analyst of China -Thailand Securities, said that the economic growth rate in the third quarter will rebound significantly, and the economic growth rate of the entire second half of the year will significantly exceed the first half of the year. The annual economic growth will maintain a high level in major global economies.

At present, the foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated. The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago requested to seize the current critical mark, timely and decisive policies, maintain a reasonable scale of policies, and use tools in the toolbox to consolidate the foundation of economic restoration development.

"A package of steady growth policies is introduced, the continuation policy has accurate point, the policy continues to work hard, and promotes economic recovery growth." Bai Jingming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences, said that on the one hand Make good use of special debt and policy development financial instruments to form a physical workload as soon as possible to allow policies to take effect in time; on the other hand, pay attention to the use of reform methods to expand policy space.

Wen Bin believes that policies are expected to form a joint force, thus promoting credit expansion, ironing economic fluctuations, further consolidating the foundation of economic recovery development, and maintaining economic operation in a reasonable range.If the content of the work, copyright and other issues, please contact this website within 30 days from the date of publishing related articles.Copyright infringement Tel: 010-85202353

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