Two months fell 25%!The nitric acid market is weak and difficult to change in the short term

The prices of nitric acid fell in August, and the monthly decline reached 19.25%. On September 8, the average nitric acid price was 2,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), a decrease of 25.42%compared with July 1. The industry believes that since the second half of the year, it has been affected by shrinkage and dragging demand, the cumulative cost support has been loosened, the nitric acid market has continued to decline. In the near future, if there is no good support, the market will continue to operate weakly.

The market fell sharply

"This year's nitric acid market has gone out of a U -word. July is the watershed from the rise to fall." Zhang Yu, a nitric acid dealer in Liaoning, said that the market decline in August, with a monthly decline of 19.25%.

According to Zhang Yu, the market's center of gravity shocks to the bottom of August, and companies generally report that downstream pick -ups are not good, and some companies' quotations have fallen to near the cost line. At the end of August, Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd.'s dense nitric acid was off the factory price of 2100 yuan, a decrease of 850 yuan from the beginning of the month; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. was quoted at 2050 yuan, a decrease of 400 yuan from the beginning of the month; Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. The offer was 2350 yuan, a decrease of 300 yuan from the beginning of the month. Enterprises generally reflect that downstream demand continues to be weak, and the demand for intermediate body industries such as nitrics, pesticides, dyes, etc. has fallen to a low point, which directly leads to scarcity in orders.

In fact, in the first half of this year, the domestic concentrated nitric acid market performed well, and it was a strong contrast with the market in the second half of the year. Since April, nitric acid has opened up rising, climbing to a high level in history, and then continued until early July. In April, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China climbed to 2264 yuan, from May to 2441 yuan, and in June to 2763 yuan. Whether it is the duration of the market rising or the height of the rise, it is at the highest level in history.

Demand contraction is the main cause

"Weak demand is the fundamental reason for the market transformation." For this year, the trend of the nitric acid market has risen, Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Mi Yanbin judged.

According to Mi Yanbin, as of now, the overall supply of nitric acid markets in 2022 is low, and the year -on -year decline is significantly declining. According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, the total domestic output in the first half of the year was 774,000 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 26.7%. The supply has been at a low level for a long time. In the second quarter, some main acid companies in Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places were overwhelmed. The emergence of the supply gap provided great support for the acid market. In terms of demand, there was also a significant decline. In the first half of the year, the total demand for concentric acid in China was 746,000 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 25.47%. However, since April, some long -term maintenance intermediate downstream has resumed, and the demand has improved significantly. At the same time, the supply side remains low, and the situation of non -matching supply and demand is highlighted, and the nitric acid market has begun to increase power.

However, downstream demand from July to August began to shrink, especially in August. According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, the demand for domestic concentrated nitric acid in August was 109,700 tons, a decrease of 11.67%month -on -month. In the middle of the intermediate industries such as aniline, dyes, dyes, nitrics, pesticides, etc., the production of production was reduced and overhauled. The demand for the pickling industry was also weak, and the demand for raw materials nitric acid continued to be sluggish.

Multi -factor jointly caused the downstream demand to shrink significantly, and then dragged down the performance of the concentrated nitric acid market. Mi Yanbin analyzed that the downstream performance was so weak. On the one hand, the market was weak. For example, the continued losses of the cost line and even losing money in the nitrogen industry, the downstream of the dye and pesticide industry continued to be sluggish. On the other hand, due to high temperature, high and humidity weather and pust -resistance, downstream factories have more maintained or reducing burden operations.

Poose costs and add weight

While the demand is weak and dragging down the market, the cost support of the upstream raw material liquid ammonia is loose and provides room for further decline in the market.

Mi Yanbin introduced that the liquid ammonia market performed strongly in the first half of the year. Under the multiple favorable support, the average price hit a record high. In the first quarter, the average market price was much higher than the same period last year; in the second quarter, it refreshed historical highs and exceeded the 5,000 yuan mark. Among them, on May 16, the average price of liquid ammonia market reached 5,350 yuan, an increase of 39.08%year -on -year.

However, in June, the liquid ammonia market turned into a slump. According to business analysts, due to the increase in market supply, the demand for downstream chemical fertilizers is weak, and the resistance to high prices has suppressed some rigid needs. The overall price of domestic liquid ammonia has declined, and the decline in June reached 9.74%. The prices of Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Hubei have all declined to varying degrees, and the declines are above 500 yuan. In July, as the market supply increased significantly, and the downstream demand had not changed, and the agricultural demand was weak, resulting in a sharp decline in the liquid ammonia market, a decline of 23.0%. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have fallen significantly, and the declines have exceeded 1,000 yuan. After two months of depth, the market continued to be weak in August, and the negative pressure on the nitric acid market became more obvious, providing space for market price retracement. From the perspective of the market market, electricity restrictions in Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and other places have entered the end, and the supply of liquid ammonia may increase. Many companies have a plan to re -production. In the future, supply pressure may continue, and the market conditions will not be able to change.

In summary, the main downstream demand of nitric acid is still weak. In terms of potassium nitrate, due to sufficient raw material supply, the price continues to decline, and the cost support is average, it is expected that the decline is still mainly declined in the short term. The sales of the downstream people of ammonium nitrate have come to an end, and the supply of the market in the near future is normal, and the price may lower the price slightly in the near future. In the short term, if the demand side has not improved significantly, the nitric acid market recovers the inflection point. (Li Dongling)

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