A pot of cold water splashes to the United States

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on the 13th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 8.3%year -on -year, which was higher than the market expectations of 8.1%. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes plummeted on the same day, all of which set up a total of 2020 The largest single -day decline since June 11. The United States CNN reported that although the US President Biden said on the same day that he was "not worried" about inflation data, investors have predicted that the Fed will take more severe action to cope with high inflation. Wall Street institutions predict that the Fed will raise interest rates at 100 basis points at the interest meeting of September next week. Long -term historic interest rate hikes may cause serious damage to the US economy.

The government is optimistic and judged by "face"

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on the 13th, although the US CPI data in August in August was less than 8.5%in July and 9.1%in June, it was still at a high level in 40 years. Among them, the core CPI of energy and food was 6.3%, which also exceeded market expectations.

From the perspective of specific data, food, housing and medical services have pushed the CPI in August, and the increase of these three items offset a decline of 10.6%of gasoline prices. The price of new cars rose 0.8%, and the cost of nearly one -third of the weight of CPI rose 0.7%, and medical services rose 0.8%, the fastest monthly increase since October 2019.

Macar Zanidi, chief economist of Moodle Company, said: "Although the prices of air tickets, coffee, and used cars have fallen, the prices of eggs, bread and other products closely related to life have continued to rise rapidly, rising 13.5%in the past year. It has reached the largest increase since March 1979. The core data has been heating up and it is still rising strongly. This is the most disturbing. "

Although the number of inflation is not optimistic, after the release of the CPI in August, Bayeng said that inflation data showed that the US economy made more progress in reducing global inflation, and emphasized that reducing inflation requires more time and determination.

The Fox News Network said on the 13th that before the inflation data was announced, Biden was celebrating the "Inflation Act Act" that he passed last month. It may not be able to reflect the overall economy. "The US economy is still strong" and "not worried about the latest inflation data."

A survey released by the Federal Reserve this week shows that the pressure of the supply chain has eased, but American Consumer News and Business Channel believes that the US CPI index of about 3/4 this year is above 4%, which reflects the long -term inflation of inflation. The trend also refuted the view of "temporary" inflation that the White House and the Fed have been promoting. It is reported that many economists and politicians have previously believed that the essence of inflation is caused by food and energy shortage. Once the supply chain resumes normal, the price of energy and food will decrease, and the inflation rate will decrease immediately. However, the "face" came quickly. The CPI index in August showed that inflation may be longer and deeper than the previous thought.

Laura is a small business owner in the western suburbs of Boston. It produces bird food and supplies to the United States. When the reporter of the Global Times asked whether inflation had affected her, she did not hesitate to say: "Of course! Natural gas, energy, food, almost everything I bought in the store is raising the price ... So I am me The business has to increase the price to a crazy level. The ceiling tiles I bought last week have found that the price has risen from $ 49 to $ 89 a week. And the stocks I hold are plummeting. Our living standard has already been. It is higher than many people, and it is difficult to imagine what kind of pressure the general public is facing. "

According to Gallop's latest polls, compared with last fall, the American people generally believe that rising prices have made life more difficult. 74%of the low -income people believe that the rise in prices makes life more difficult. In November last year, the percentage of this view was 70%. The view that the views have changed big are high -income people. 64%of the intermediate income people believe that the rise in prices makes life difficult. In November last year, 46%; 40%of the high -income people held this view. The survey in November 2021 was only 28 %.

Fate interest rate hike expectation to push a strong dollar

The U.S. CPI in August was unexpectedly rising, further consolidating market expectations of the Fed's 75 basis points in September. The US dollar index that has fallen recently has risen, and the 110 highs have been reached on the 14th. According to the Wall Street Journal, the super -expected inflation rate has made the Fed's interest rate hikes imperative, which will increase the interest rate of federal funds to the highest level since 2007.

Boston School of Economics Peter Allan told the Global Times reporter that as the Fed Chairman Powell mentioned in the Jackson Hall Annual Conference last month, inflation is the biggest problem facing the current US economy. The Fed's efforts to reduce inflation mean higher interest rates and go through a period of slowing economic growth.

Nomura Securities is expected to raise interest rates of 100 basis points on the 14th, becoming the first Wall Street institution to make such radical predictions. The expectations of interest rate hikes and the strengthening of the US dollar have also caused investors to sell stocks, bonds to oil and gold.

So far, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four consecutive times under the severe inflation situation in the United States. On March 16 and May 4, 25 and 50 basis points were raised respectively. On June 15th and July 27th, the Federal Reserve has two consecutive radio interest rate hikes. During the year, the Fed has accumulated a total of 225 basis points, and the federal fund interest rate target range was adjusted to 2.25%-2.5%. With the continuous interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar index has also begun to accelerate, and from 100 below March, it has quickly climbed to 110. Although it has fallen in recent trading days, the CPI data that exceeded expected in August stimulated the US dollar index again To strengthen, break the 110 mark in the market.

Both developed and emerging markets are impacted

The continued strength of the US dollar has devalued the major non -US dollar currency around the world. The British exchange rate to the US dollar fell to the lowest point in the 35 years. The yen exchange rate fell below 144 for the first time in 1998. The euro exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the parity for the first time in 20 years. The Wall Street Journal Index, which measures the performance of the dollar to a basket of currencies, has increased by 13%this year.

Bloomberg analyzed in the report that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy has influenced the world that it is not new, but the strength of the US dollar to developed countries has exceeded emerging market countries for a long time. Affected by this, the import prices such as energy and food in developed countries will rise, leading to worsening people's livelihood and economic burden, and dragging the economic recovery process.

Tu Yonghong, deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary of Renmin University of China, held an interview with the Global Times on the 14th that the 10 -year quantitative loose and the continuous price increase of the full chain of the commodity commodity made the Fed's difficulty in controlling inflation with a single monetary policy. However, due to the political needs of the midterm elections to control inflation, the United States will continue to push high interest rates and US dollar exchange rates. Tu Yonghong said: "The continued tightening of the US dollar is very significant, and both developed countries and developing countries will be impacted."

Tu Yonghong believes that compared with developed countries, developing countries have a much weaker ability to resist impact. In particular, most of the foreign debt in some emerging market countries is the US dollar. The appreciation of the US dollar means that the pressure on the repayment of foreign debts has risen sharply, which is very likely that the currency crisis and the banking crisis will even drag the economy into a decline. For other developing countries that rely on imported commodities and food, the appreciation of the US dollar will further expand the international revenue and expenditure deficit, the cost of international financing has increased, and the debt burden is heavy. These countries can easily fall into the vortex of the sovereign credit crisis.

Tu Yonghong believes that at present, individual countries and some African countries have appeared in the debt crisis, and they have dragged down the recovery of the global economy. Asian countries are mostly an important part of the global industrial chain. Its currency has depreciated sharply on the US dollar, which will inhibit the foreign trade of these countries and the attraction of overseas funds, which will cause market confidence to be hit.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the forecast of global economic growth to 3.2%in July in July, below 3.6%of the April forecast and 4.4%of January forecast. IMF warns that the global economy may soon be on the edge of a complete decline. Some economists say that the global economic growth rate is still possibly reduced in the future, and some European countries may fall into a state of recession. Under the oppression of the continued strengthening of the US dollar, the global economy will also usher in greater challenges.

Global Times special reporter Zhang Sisi Global Times reporter Ni Hao Pan Xiaotong

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