The "peak season is not strong" popular route in the container transportation industry fell below $ 3,000 in the current unit price

Reporter Shi Lu

In the traditional peak season, the container transportation industry (hereinafter referred to as the "collection industry") felt the chill in advance.

"The price of containers shipped from Guangzhou to Western US routes has fallen below $ 3,000/Feu. Ningbo's price remains above $ 3,000/Feu. Compared with the actual transaction), the decline has been as high as 85%. "Insiders inside the China Foreign Transport Group told the Securities Daily reporter.

Prior to this, the price of container was fired a day, known as "crazy box". Originally in September, it was the traditional peak season for the transportation industry, but in terms of the current freight rate or from the perspective of the freight forwarding business, this traditional peak season seemed a bit deserted this year. Now, the current freight price has fallen more than 80 %. Does it mean that the rising cycle of the centralized industry has ended, and the industry's prosperity has begun to decline?

Frequently decline in the current freight rate

Affected by global inflation and geographical factors, global container transportation demand continued to weaken, and the freight rates of various trunk containers fell almost across the board.

According to the data released by the Shanghai Aviation Stock Exchange on September 9, the SCFI index fell 285.5 points to 2562.12 points last week, a decrease of 10.03%, further expanding from a 9.7%decline in the previous week. Essence Compared with the beginning of the year, the SCFI index is close to "chopping" and has fallen 43.9%.

The Western Western route was a popular route last year, but now, the freight of the container to the western route of the United States to the United States is only $ 3484/Feu, a weekly decline of 13.21%, a year -on -year decrease of 44.9%. 57%. The shipping price of the US Eastern Airlines was relatively strong. The freight rate fell to $ 7767/Feu, and the weekly decline was 6.62%, a cumulative decrease of more than 35%compared with the historical high.

The freight of European route containers, which has always been stable, has begun to fall. SCFI data shows that the freight rate of containers to European to Europe is $ 3877/Teu, a decrease of 8.8%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 48.2%, and a decrease of more than 50%compared with the highest level.

The price of the long -term association rises steadily

Regarding the reasons why container's current freight rate plummeted, a person in the maritime industry analyzed the reporter of the Securities Daily: "On the one hand, the growth rate of demand end exports has slowed down, and global container cargo transportation decreases; on the other hand The congestion situation eases, the supply and demand pattern of the container ship gradually turns to loosening. In 2023, the new ship orders will usher in the peak of delivery, and the supply industry will be sufficient. Previously, the supply and demand of the transportation industry will be fundamentally resolved. ","

Guotai Junan Securities stated in the research report that the number of global shipping goods in July 2022 increased by 5%compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the amount of goods in June from Asia to North American routes is still high, while the peak season is weak and the load rate has decreased. Inland and port congestion in the United States have significantly relieved, and the traditional peak season for the binance and settlement prices of collecting companies has begun to fall significantly.

Huatai Securities stated in the research report that in the third quarter, it was the traditional peak season of the transportation industry. The goods were usually exported in September to meet Thanksgiving and Christmas goods. But since September this year, international containers have accelerated their freight. Among them, in the second week of September, the freight price of Western Western routes/European routes fell from the previous month, highlighting the insufficient market volume. In terms of cabin supply, the overall supply of the European and American routes in September is expected to be greater than the demand. The European line shutdown has risen to 24%to cope with the impact of insufficient amount of goods.

"Indexes such as high energy prices, rising inflation, slowing down in European and American physical consumption, and passive inventory accumulation have all indicated that the risk of further decline in the fourth quarter of this year." Shen Xiaofeng, Huatai Securities analyst, said in the research report.

Jia Yizhen, a registered international investment analyst, believes that even if the futures freight rate has been falling, the impact on the shipping company is not great. Raising, so the corresponding performance of listed companies will not be too bad. The stock price is expected to the future freight rate. I think the current market's response is a bit excessive. "

"Taking COSCO Maritime Control as an example, the proportion of its long -term associations in its marketing business accounted for a very high proportion, which may exceed 60%. Moreover, the price of the US -Line Long Association has doubled year -on -year. . "Jia Yizhen added that with the bottom of the long -term price, the performance of related listed companies in the third quarter of this year may basically be flat with the second quarter, and the annual performance can basically be maintained at a relatively high level.

- END -