Dongpeng beverage faces double ceiling, asserting "walking out of Guangdong" is early

Text/Yangcheng Evening News reporter Huang Ting intern Lu Zhihao

Data Map (Dongpeng Beverage Official Website)

Since 2013, the slogan of "tired and drinking Dongpeng special drink" has been like Dongpeng drink. In July of this year, after the time in the past ten years, the chairman of Dongpeng Beverage Lin Muqin talked about the "change and unchanged" of the company in a live broadcast event. He believes that there are some things that are unchanged, such as "tired and sleepy" publicity and education, but some things need to be changed, such as the texture and aesthetics of the brand, product packaging, main screens, and high -promoting products. Essence

In August, in the 2022 interim report released by Dongpeng Beverage, people also saw some new changes, the most significant of which was the change in the geographical distribution of sales revenue. In other areas of Dongpeng Beverage, sales revenue accounted for 51.78%of the previous June, surpassing the Guangdong region for the first time; while the overall market sales revenue increased by 16.66%, the sales revenue of the "base camp" in Dongpeng beverage declined year -on -year 0.41%.

Judging from the sales figure alone, Dongpeng beverage is moving from Guangdong to the country. However, whether this change is a passive sales decline or a strategic abandonment of the saturated market, there are still divergent opinions. At the same time, diversification still seems to be very tepid. The "one trick" of large energy drinks to support Dongpeng drinks is still unknown.

Management says that the rainy season and epidemic affect Guangdong sales

In the first half of this year, the results of Dongpeng beverages seemed well. Its 2022 interim report showed that the company realized revenue of 4.291 billion yuan, an increase of 16.54%year -on -year; net profit attributable to mother was 755 million yuan, an increase of 11.66%year -on -year; the non -net profit of the mother -in -law was 715 million yuan, an increase of 8.27%year -on -year. Compared with the revenue growth rate (49.11%) and net profit growth (53.14%) in the same period last year, the growth rate has slowed significantly.

The speed has dropped, and the changes in Dongpeng beverage sales map are also interesting. In the first half of this year, the basic market of the Guangdong region of the core market became no longer stable and belonged to negative growth. The revenue ratio has dropped from 45.05%of the same period last year to 38.46%; Sales area) sales income also exceeded the Guangdong region for the first time. From the perspective of the second quarter of this year, the Guangdong region achieved revenue of 860 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 6.35%.

At that time, in order to cater to the consumer group of "workers", Dongpeng, who started in Shenzhen, moved the main battlefield to Dongguan. Until 2013, Dongpeng beverage was almost in the Guangdong market. The Guangdong Marketing Headquarters was set up separately, and 9 large districts and key client departments were set up. Marketing successfully builds the Guangdong model market.

After the listing of Dongpeng beverage last year, the company's doubts about the company's revenue too much in revenue gradually increased. The capital market urgently needed a new story, and the nationalization layout is imperative. Lin Muqin also said that only when the proportion of revenue in Guangdong has dropped to less than 30%, Dongpeng drink can be regarded as "real national brand."

To this end, Dongpeng drinks have repeatedly sought "energy breaking" in the region. For the highly dealer network that Dongpeng beverage relying on, in the first half of the year, the number of dealers increased by 278 to 2,590, and a total of 505 dealers were added, of which more than 85%were dealers outside the Guangdong region, direct operation and online. The net increase in the number of Guangdong dealers was increased to 0.

Why is the growth rate of the Guangdong region "not strong" in the first half of the year? At the telephone meeting after the semi -annual report, the response given by the company's management is that the continuous rainy season has a certain impact on the sales of the Guangdong region in the core market in the second quarter; at the same time The common role of the factors also led to the unexpected expectations of the Guangdong region, but it did not give more detailed attribution to different regions.

Dongpeng Beverage Product Layout (Screenshot of China Merchants Securities Research Report)

Guangdong energy drink "ceiling" is not far away

With the IPO of Dongpeng drinks, the doubts of the revenue rely on the Guangdong market and Dongpeng special drinking items have gradually increased, and they are also directly expressed in the stock price and market value.

In May 2021, Dongpeng beverage landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and was known as "the first share of Chinese functional beverage A shares." After the listing, the stock price of Dongpeng beverage has been pulled by 15 daily limit. The stock price hit the highest price of 285.70 yuan in early July. It increased by more than 460%from the issue price of 46.27 yuan, and the market value once reached 114.03 billion yuan. The real controller Lin Muqin's net worth has also soared to 50 billion yuan. At that time, the popularity of Dongpeng beverage after listing originated from the market's high growth expectations for Dongpeng drinks.

Subsequently, high -growth fanaticism began to make rationality, and the controversy of Dongpeng beverage relying on the Guangdong market continued. Affected by this, since July last year, the stock price of Dongpeng beverage has begun to fall quickly. As of the close of September 14, the stock price of Dongpeng beverage was 138.73 yuan, the corresponding market value was 55.49 billion yuan, which was evaporated by the highest market value of more than 50 % compared to the previous market value.

In addition to the influence of external factors such as the rainy season and epidemic, Guangdong's basic stagnation or more energy drinks are related to Guangdong's "unable to drink". The sales revenue of the Guangdong region in the first half of the year, assuming that consumers buy a large single product "Dongpeng Special Drink" (wholesale channels are 79 yuan/box, a box has 24 bottles) The shipments in Guangdong are 250 million liters. Data show that Guangdong's permanent population was 127 million at the end of 2021. According to the Fifrrian report, the Dongpeng beverage has currently occupied more than 50%in the Guangdong regional market. As a result, the per capita consumption per year in Dongpeng Beverage in Guangdong is about 7.9 liters. According to Euromonitor (Ou Rui), the consumption of per capita energy beverages of the United States, Japan and China in 2021 was 8.9L, 3.9L and 1.8L, respectively. The per capita consumption level of the Guangdong region is close to the level of the United States, and the sales of Dongpeng beverages are not far away.

Diversified "progress bar" stagnation

Many years ago, Da product Dongpeng special drink also moved the blue -collar groups such as construction workers and courier brothers with the design of functional refreshing, price -friendly, and bottle cap as the ashtray. Freight driver group.

However, the strategy of helping Dongpeng's drinking out of the siege has also failed, and the traditional truck driver group is facing aging problems. Data from the Ministry of Transport at the end of 2021 showed that the truck driver crowd was 17.2873 million, which also had an age structure of 80%of the post -80s and 70s. Directly restricts the growth of Dongpeng special drinking.

It is worth noting that the Dongpeng drink has not got rid of the dependence on the "big item" of Dongpeng special drinking, and the implementation of the diversified strategy is basically stagnant.

As the main product of Dongpeng special drink, its revenue basically occupies more than 90 % of the company's revenue. In the first half of this year, of the 4.291 billion yuan revenue achieved by the company, the sales revenue of Dongpeng special drinks accounted for 4.118 billion yuan. This sales increased by 18.16%over the same period last year. From 2018 to 2020, Dongpeng special drinks contributed 94.99%, 95.11%and 93.88%of the company.

In order to remove the dilemma of a single source of income, Dongpeng Beverage launched the carbonated product "Dongpeng Jiayu" in June 2020, and in April 2021, the "Dongpeng 0 Sugar Drink" was launched. In terms of non -energy beverage products, in addition to the reinventing and listing of Chenpit drinks, the company also launched new products such as citrus lemon tea and low -sugar coffee beverage "Dongpeng Big Coffee". However, most products did not arouse water. In the first half of 2022, Dongpeng's other beverages accounted for only 8.49%.

Source | Yangcheng Evening News · Yangcheng School

Responsible | Xu Zhangchao

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