Fed's inflation data "explosion table": Gold breakdown 1700 US dollars, gold gold plummeted more than 7%

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Ye Mai Sui Guangzhou reported that the US inflation data continued to "explode". The 75 basis points of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes were already on the board, and it may even reach 100 basis points.

On the evening of September 13, the US dollar index soared, and the market once touched 109.96 points. The price of precious metals fell, and the spot price of gold once broke through the support of $ 1,700/ounce.

The possibility of raising 100 basis points to 33%

On the evening of September 13th, the US -quarter CPI was adjusted by 8.3%year -on -quarter in August. It is estimated to be 8.1%and the previous value is 8.5%. The CPI increased by 0.1%month -on -month after the U.S. quarterly, and it was expected to decrease by 0.10%, with a previous value of 0.00%. The core CPI of the food and energy ingredients with large fluctuations rose 0.6%month -on -month, up 6.3%year -on -year, all higher than expected.

After the explanatory inflation data was announced, US President Biden interpreted that the data itself showed the progress of controlling inflation, but it took more time and determination to reduce inflation. The probability of 75 basis points in September has risen to 100%. The probability of the Federal Reserve's 100 -basis point next week has risen from 0 % to 33 %.

Nomura Securities raised the Federal Reserve's expectations from 75 basis points to 100 basis points on Tuesday. At the same time, the end point interest rate of this round of interest rate hikes was also adjusted to 4.5%-4.75% The pace of base points is likely to continue until early next year.

The expectation of interest rate hikes also increased the performance of the US dollar index, and the US dollar index rose up to 109.96 points overnight. The precious metals have been adjusted under this pressure, and the support of $ 1700/ounce in the golden plate is as low as $ 1696.2/ounce.

Senior Researcher Tang Linmin, a senior researcher at China International Futures Co., Ltd., told the 21st Century Business Herald that the US CPI data stirred the market because after the Federal Reserve ’s tough statement for many consecutive months, the market has been successfully implanted in the Federal Reserve. The concept, thus higher than the expected inflation data, tighten the market nerve conditions, and has also changed its expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike this month.

However, Tang Lin Min also believes that the possibility of 100 basis points in interest rate hikes or "thunderous heavy rain points". There were similar expectations before, but in the end they did not become a reality. Because once the interest rate hikes 100 points, it will not only cause drama to the economy and the market, but also seriously affect the future Fed's policy path and market expectations. Especially the latter, once the market expects to change to the new threshold, the impact on the US economy and policies will be endlessly affected.

In addition to gold, the situation of other precious metals is also exactly the same. Silver has fallen 2.52%to a minimum of $ 19.27/ounce;

SPDR positions continue to decrease

Due to the significant interest rate hike, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week of September 6, COMEX gold futures speculative net multi -header decreased by 19510 to 1217, a new low in the last six weeks.

"Whether it is 75 points or 100 points, it will have a large impact on gold. At present, the inflation data is explosive, and the short -term pressure of gold will be great. The support of $ 1700/ounce has been broken several times. It is estimated that it is difficult to keep it. In the short term, you should still look at less movement. "Senior investor Lin Rong told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, is also continuously reduced. The latest positions are 962.88 tons, with a daily reduction of 2.03 tons. Since June 17 this year, only 2 trading days have increased.

CITIC Securities said that in the third quarter, due to the impact of the 10 -year US debt yield at a high point and the continued strengthening of the US dollar, the gold may continue to decline in the short term. From the end of the fourth quarter to next year, the characteristics of the US economic stage are expected to benefit gold prices. In terms of inflation, the high inflation problem in the United States may continue until mid -year, and asset preservation demands rise; in terms of economic recession, in the fourth quarter and next year, Europe and the United States will gradually enter the recession period, resulting in heating up asset -aversion demand; actual interest rates aspects; The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes entered the second half, and the interest rate of US debt chiefs may fall in the third quarter. In the long run, it is expected that the actual interest rate of the U.S. debt will still be in the era of "low interest rates". Looking at the actual interest rate at multiple angles, the actual interest rate will continue to operate a good golden trend; in terms of US dollars, it is subject to the gradual decline in the relatively important importance of the US economy and the deficit of the US debt deficit. Influences such as intensified and increasing the crisis of trust in the US dollar, combined with the judgment of the US dollar when the US and European economies weakened at the same time, the US dollar was difficult to get out of a strong market. In the fourth quarter, the US and European economic differentiation could accelerate the top of the US dollar. Weak, increased golden power.

Everbright Futures has a short attitude towards gold. It states that under the circumstances that economic growth and control can balance each other, the Fed's monetary policy will maintain a certain degree of fixed force until the Fed's inflation goal is achieved. During this time (or within the year) This may mean that the phased rebound is excluded, and the gold will continue to operate in the descending channel.

(Coordinating: Ma Chunyuan)

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