Investment face -to -face: How do private entrepreneurs do a good job of global asset allocation?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Yang Xi

In recent years, with the development of society and the accumulation of wealth, our residents' awareness of wealth management has increased. However, the current macro economy is complex and changing. Under the environment of slowing economic growth and intensified market fluctuations, the difficulty of capturing high -quality investment opportunities has increased significantly. For entrepreneur customers, how to do asset allocation is still a problem.

Recently, the 21st Century Economic Herald interviewed the head of China Bank Securities Asset Allocation Department, the chief asset allocation officer of the asset management sector Chen Lotian, and the product manager of the exclusive product team of the private bank of the Bank of China, and the expert committee of the asset allocation platform expert. Entrepreneurs' groups solve problems and focus on the topic of global asset allocation, and share their insights that they have summarized from long -term practice.

Entrepreneurs need to establish three aspects

"21st Century": The current entrepreneurial group's emphasis on wealth management is completely different from ten years ago. Chen is always an expert in asset allocation. What I want to ask is that for entrepreneurs, what basic understanding of wealth management or asset allocation?

Chen Lotian: After entrepreneurs create wealth, how to realize the value preservation and appreciation of wealth through wealth management is a more important issue. According to the survey of the Bank of China Private Bank of Chinese Entrepreneurs Family Wealth Management, there are three phenomena in our entrepreneur wealth management: first, whether in the short term or long -term, additional high return income is the common goal; second, assets The return expectations are relatively high, but the investment structure does not necessarily support the expected return; third, the investment advocates long -termism, but the actual investment behavior is shorter and transaction.

These phenomena show that our entrepreneurs need to establish three basic understanding in wealth management: First, the starting point of wealth management is to evaluate the "impossible triangle" in investment to achieve income, risks and liquidity. Balance; Second, we must understand the returns, risks and liquidity characteristics of different types of assets, such as cash, solidarity assets, equity assets, as well as alternative assets such as precious metals, wineries, and artworks; third, wealth management must have assets in the management of wealth management Concept of configuration and long -termism.

"21st Century": The product experts who always pay private banks in China. What good financial products can help entrepreneur and customer allocation and asset allocation in China. What are their characteristics?

Fu Wenjing: In these years, with the continuous deepening development and improvement of my country's multi -level capital market, the types of domestic financial products are indeed increasingly richer. Essence For example, in terms of allocation purposes, risk preferences, liquidity demands, investment period and restrictions, etc., it can be more diversified and personalized. I mainly talk about several categories of products with a higher degree of attention in the current market:

Generally, according to the different investment decision models, we usually divide the products into active management products and quantitative products. Active management of products is usually led by investment managers, and the subjective judgment of investment managers is relatively large. Most of the traditional stocks, bonds, and hybrid strategies belong to this category. I believe that everyone is relatively familiar with them, and there will be no lectures here.

Quantitative products are based on mathematical statistical logic to deeply excavate information that may affect asset prices, find out the statistical laws, and pursue more certainty and cost -effective benefits from the perspective of probability. Managers of quantitative products need to build a variety of quantitative or semi -quantitative mathematical models, including multi -factor, decision tree, and neural networks to form signals in time selection, stock selection, and standard. Essence In recent years, the scale of quantitative products has grown particularly fast, and the types of strategy are also rich and diverse. The more representative quantitative strategies include index enhancement strategies, stock market neutral strategies, and CTA strategies.

Among them, the index enhancement strategy product pursues excess returns beyond the benchmark index. For example, the common CSI 500 index is enhanced. In addition to the income of the index itself, we will focus on whether it can continue to obtain excess returns higher than the CSI 500 index. However, because the product anchor the CSI 500 Index, the rise and fall of the CSI 500 Index has a great impact on it, so we need to make the psychological preparation of the fluctuations of the CSI 500 index itself before the investment. Compared with direct investment in index funds, excellent index enhanced product managers' excess returns excavated through their own technologies and strategies can usually increase their benefits to investors. So if our entrepreneur customers are optimistic about the future performance of some indexes, then it is a good choice to reasonably configure some excellent indexes to enhance products.

The stock market neutral products can be simply understood as the benefits and fluctuations of the benchmark index (such as the CSI 500 Index just mentioned) on the basis of the index enhancement strategy. Because the correlation between the excess income part and the index itself is not high, when the index is high, if you are worried that the risk of the index's decline, then selecting neutral products may be more appropriate. For example, when we look back at the Index's decline in the second half of the 15th, 18th, and 21st years, many of the neutral products of the stock market that tens of billions of private equity management have actually risen. Of course, this excess income is not necessarily positive, depending on the ability of the fund manager. In general, the stock market's neutral strategy earns more relative income between stocks. Usually, it has better adaptability in the shock market. In the long run, it is still more stable than the index enhancement strategy. "21st Century": What are the characteristics of CTA products you said?

CTA products are mainly invested in the commodity and commodity derivative market. Because the commodity market and stock and bond market are driven by different factors, CTA products are usually related to low correlation with products investing in stocks and bonds. In the asset allocation of entrepreneurial customers Sexual dispersion risk. Another feature of the CTA strategy is that the performance differences of different segmentation strategies are actually quite large. For example, a high -frequency price CTA, like some minute line -level trend signals, usually make good income relatively stable, but the quota is usually relatively scarce; and the fundamental CTA, the simple understanding is to judge the future of the product through the supply and demand relationship of various commodities The price trend and based on these fundamental information to make investment decisions. From the historical data, if such strategies do well, the long -term benefits are still good, and even more than some high -frequency volume CTA strategies, but its fluctuations are often very large.

In recent years, new technologies and new research results have continuously promoted the iterative upgrade of quantitative strategies. On the one hand, the rapid development of machine learning, deep learning and other technologies has made quantitative product managers obvious advantages in tapping the market's wider and deeper information information; on the other hand Greed and fear makes the transaction more rational. It can be seen that quantitative products are very high in technology and innovation. Compared with public equity funds, the management mechanism is more flexible, more incentives, and easy to stimulate innovation. Therefore, it can attract and retain outstanding talents and create better performance. According to publicly disclosed data, good quantitative products are indeed more from private equity funds.

Reasonable understanding of risk assessment

"21st Century": With the development of fintech and the progress of product managers, financial products are constantly improving and optimizing. There are more choices in front of customers. Some people in the industry mentioned a phenomenon that even when risk assessment was done, the customer may not be able to bear when the risk comes in front of them. As a person in the industry, what suggestions?

Chen Lotian: There are generally three reasons for this phenomenon:

The first is whether the personal risk assessment is "true" risk assessment. Because when the market changes, especially when the money -making effect is relatively strong, everyone will not help "ending". At this time, in order to make themselves invest, a customer will ask the customer manager to make the risk assessment higher;

Second, when we do wealth management, we have fully considers the most pessimistic scene in future income and expenditure. In terms of, entrepreneurs are not the same as ordinary individuals. The property used by entrepreneurs may be closely related to business operations. At this time, if the income of the company's operation is not fully considered, when the market changes, the loss caused by this part of the property may affect the business of the enterprise. In addition, when the market declines in the future, when the entrepreneurial group is doing market evaluation, is there any full consideration of the most pessimistic situation.

The third is whether we are in strict accordance with the rules and discipline when doing investment. Generally, professional institutions will be stronger when restraining ourselves, because we have a risk control system, but it will be more difficult for individuals, and there is a lack of rules and systems.

The suggestions for our entrepreneurs are also three: first, to objectively and truly evaluate their own risk tolerance; second, when doing the future wealth planning, we must analyze the scenario of income, expenditure and other scenarios. At the same time The pessimistic scene must be done with the most sufficient consideration; third, believe in the professional power, and give the professional affairs to professional institutions and people to do it.

Fu Wenjing: President Chen had already said very comprehensive. Let me make some supplements from the understanding and positioning of risk assessment.

In fact, the risk assessment is essentially a fast and general understanding of information such as investors' risk tolerance capabilities in a short period of time through a questionnaire survey. The evaluation uses the relatively effective issues that have been precipitated for a long time in the industry. Therefore, this questionnaire must be completed carefully. Otherwise, the later wealth management agencies may get misleading conclusions when they have allocated asset allocation for investors -as President Chen just mentioned.

But we also need to realize that risk tolerance is actually a very complicated problem involving psychological categories. It is affected by many factors. Changes. In fact, many cases may not really understand their risk tolerance. Only when the risks are really coming, his true feelings can tell him the answer. Therefore, we certainly cannot expect to accurately portray the real risk tolerance of investors through the questionnaire results. A more reasonable way is to understand the risk assessment as the first level of the wealth management agency "understanding and understanding customers". Later, we need to repeatedly clarify and confirm related issues in long -term communication with investors, and correct the cognition of cognition Essence For example, as a wealth management agency, you can design some risk scenarios to allow investors to substitute in a relatively relaxed environment. See what he feels when he encounters these risks?

In fact, the in -depth communication of this series of subsequent series will be like a first -level step, guiding wealth management agencies to continue to approach the real risk tolerance of investors. In this way, the wealth management agencies will consider all the factors that should be considered when assisting investors formulate asset allocation plans and make risk response plans. In this way, it can be more calm when the risk occurs, instead of being caught off guard.

After all, investment income is essentially due to the responsibility of risks. Risk exists objectively. As investors, it is more to face up to risks and awe of the market, bear the risks they can bear, and pursue the income that matches it.

Strictly set the "product filtering"

"21st Century": BOC Private Bank is a leader in the industry and pays special attention to entrepreneurial groups. I would like to ask President Fu, how did BOC Private Bank of the Bank of China be screened and controlled the managers and products when doing product analysis and research?

Fu Wenjing: BOC Private Bank does attach great importance to the quality control of the product. We think this is also a kind of attitude towards customers. Product analysis and screening are actually a very professional and complex system project. According to data disclosed by the Fund Industry Association, as of June 30, 2022, the number of private equity funds filled in the market has more than 80,000 private equity funds, and there are nearly 10,000 private equity funds managers; There are nearly 3,000 public fund managers. How to choose excellent and suitable configuration goals for our customers from these massive funds, managers and fund managers is one of the issues we have been exploring.

Product research and screening are a very important link in asset allocation. If asset allocation is a combination of science and art, then scientific methods and processes will appear more important in the link of product research and screening.

Generally speaking, we will pay attention to many aspects when screening managers and products. Here we can briefly talk about it from 3 main aspects.

For example, the level of managers and investment managers: We are very concerned about whether the company's management is mature? Is internal governance, organizational structure and risk control good? Is the team structure reasonable? Can it meet the needs of continuous upgrading of investment strategies? Is it enough attention to investment research and whether the transformation of research to investment is smooth? How about talent incentives and team stability? What is the experience of investment managers? What is the ability circle and investment values? Does the manager and investment manager have negative information such as honesty and supervision and punishment? and many more.

Secondly, at the level of investment strategy: We need to understand the operating logic of investment strategies and investment models to see what potential risk hidden dangers? And judging what circumstances of strategy is usually better, under what circumstances are not good?

In fact, some strategies have obvious capacity bottlenecks. To put it simply, when there are few funds for such strategies in the market, profitability is relatively easy, but when more and more funds are added, some changes will occur: for example The price is lower, so the difficulty of profit is getting greater. At this time, we say that this strategy has encountered a capacity bottleneck. In fact, we just imagine the market as a container to see how much funds can accommodate this strategy at the same time in this market, and most of them can obtain more satisfactory benefits. Of course, we know that the strategy capacity of the entire market is not enough. We also need to know how much funds in the market are doing the same strategy, so as to estimate how large the remaining capacity space is. This is actually an important variable that affects the future profitability of this strategy.

Also, historical performance analysis is also very important. Although we all know that historical performance does not represent future returns, and investment cannot simply look at past performance. However, in the case of long time, historical performance can still reflect the revenue and risk control capabilities of strategy to a certain extent. This is actually a bit like an employee assessment. In most cases, we still tend to think that under the same conditions, the employee capabilities with excellent performance in the past will be stronger. And through the in -depth analysis of the historical performance of the manager and strategic products, we can also judge whether there are inconsistent performances that cannot be explained between different products of the same strategy from a quantitative perspective, thereby trying to prevent moral risks. This kind of moral risk problem that may harm the interests of investors is also very concerned.

Finally, at the product level, the charging, investment scope and investment restrictions, liquidity, product structure and other contract terms, and the process efficiency of related institutions may affect the interests of investors, so they all belong to the scope of our attention. How to invest in entrepreneurs and customers

"21st Century": This year, the market has influenced the macro environment and is particularly complicated. In the first half of the year, the stock and bond market shocked. The wealth management market faced a certain pressure in both the asset allocation side and the product sales side. At this time, customers will particularly need professional advice and professional companionship. I want to ask President Chen, how do you look forward to the global market in the second half of the year and next year, and what opportunities are worth our attention in terms of asset allocation?

Chen Lotian: For the macro economy, we have several judgments:

First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. According to Powell's statement at the Jackson Hall annual meeting, the Fed will increase the cost of borrowing to restrict growth and keep "at this level" to promote inflation to promote inflation Fall. Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike policy will not stop and turn easily before inflation falls to 2%target.

The second is to integrate the US real estate, consumption, employment indicators and the Federal Reserve policy, the US economy has entered a downward stage. It is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year.

Third, about the Chinese economy, from the perspective of economic cycle and policy effects, the economy in the second half of the year will gradually rise. At present, although the transactions and construction of commercial housing have not improved significantly, from the perspective of the policy of paying off and paying for confession, the possibility of further decline has been relatively low. At present, the supporting role of infrastructure and manufacturing investment is obvious. From the perspective of the economic prosperity indicators in the middle view, the price, transaction volume, and operating rate of building materials have been picked up.

For the global market, different assets are different from different assets, and there are some views: For the bond market, the US bond market is still not optimistic before the US high inflation has not been alleviated and the Federal Reserve policy has not turned. , But with the gradual rise of the economy, the return in the second half of the year may not be as good as the first half of the year.

For the stock market, the US stock market is no longer an overheard market, but under the circumstances of economic downturn and continuous interest rate hikes, it is not a market that can be safely invested. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is currently at a historical low, and it is worthy of long -term investment and layout. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity risk brought by the Fed's interest rate hike. The A -share market, currently the valuation is reasonable and low, the performance in the second half of the year has rebounded, and various macro policies are also more friendly to the market and can be viewed optimistic.

For the US dollar exchange rate, it is currently at the high point of history. It takes more motivation to further rise. For example, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike exceeds expectations, and the US economy is better than expected. However, in the second half of the year and obviously, falling may be a big direction; for the RMB exchange rate, in the first half of the year, due to the weak domestic economy, the US interest rate hikes, the depreciation of the US dollar is relatively obvious, but the domestic economy has risen in the second half of the year, and the US economy is going down in the second half of the year. It is expected that it will be given to the US economy. RMB exchange rates bring support.

For the commodity market, the problem of supply is gradually alleviating, and China's demand is supported, but the demand of the United States may be in the second half of the year. It may be in the trend of the trend in the second half of the year.

In summary of the above analysis, from the perspective of exchange rates, valuation and economic fundamentals in the entire asset allocation, from the perspective of the country's uniform configuration, compared to the US dollar assets, we are more optimistic about RMB assets. From the perspective of domestic large -scale asset allocation, we recommend that low -allocation of bond assets and focus on allocating equity assets. In terms of the US market, the cost -effectiveness of bonds is better than stocks.

"21st Century": From the perspective of this year's product performance, the proportion of positive income of market neutralization products and traditional debt -based products is relatively higher. What do you want to ask? What is the acceptance of relatively complex products such as quantitative products? What are the points when investing?

Fu Wenjing: According to our understanding, the acceptance of current entrepreneur customers' acceptance products is constantly increasing.

Although the quantitative strategy is more complicated than the traditional stock bond investment strategy, the development momentum in recent years is indeed relatively rapid. According to data disclosed by the Fund Industry Association, as of the end of 2020, the size of the Private Equity Fund was about 700 billion yuan, an increase of about 67%over 2019; Essence There was no public disclosure data in 2021, but according to our calculations, the scale of quantitative products should also have a relatively obvious increase.

Entrepreneurs customers need to pay attention to the following aspects when investing in quantitative products:

The first is to choose a professional and reliable wealth management agency. What kind of institutions are professional and reliable? I think first of all, we must pay enough attention to investment research and have the corresponding ability. We also mentioned just now that the strategy of quantitative products is diverse, and each strategy has its own risk characteristics and adapting to the environment. For example, the index enhances the product, and the continuity of excess returns is very concerned, but the risk and income of the benchmark index itself cannot be ignored. In fact, most of the retracement of the index enhanced products is usually derived from the retracement of the index; for example, for example, in the past two years, the hot stock market neutral products, most investors have seen the small characteristics of Alpha's fluctuations, but ignore the strategy. Effectiveness and additional risks brought by hedging. In the third quarter of last year, the large -scale retracement of neutral products in the market also sounded the alarm. There are also great differences between the performance between CTA, fundamental CTA, and CTA arbitrage of CTA, fundamentals, and CTA arbitrage in CTA strategy. The distinction and screening of them requires the research and judgment of professional institutions. The second is to adhere to the concept of long -term asset allocation. As we mentioned earlier, many products with good income elasticity are usually very large. Entrepreneurs and customers are actually pursuing the long -term value preservation and appreciation of assets, not a "roller coaster" trading experience. So try to avoid pressing the asset on a certain product or a type of strategy. For example, when the configuration index enhances the product, if there is no clear judgment on the market style, then you can consider a moderate dispersion configuration on the 300 index enhancement product, the 500 index enhancement product, and the 1000 index; The power of wealth management agencies has selected different strategies with low revenue correlation with different strategies, such as enhancement of index and CTA strategy, then appropriate combination investment can also be made. And the more complicated the product, the more likely it is to have hidden dangers of small probability risks. In the method of configuration, the loss caused by a product problem is usually significantly reduced with the scattered positions.

The third is to choose a senior customer manager or investment consultant and maintain in -depth communication with him. Exclusive customer managers and investment consultants are important links of linked wealth management agencies and investors. When investing in complex products, investment and research resources of professional institutions are very helpful for entrepreneurial customers' investment judgments. However, whether the exclusive customer manager and investment consultant can effectively provide the professional resources of the belonging to the customer, on the one hand, it depends on their own ability and experience, and on the other hand, it depends on the support and training given by the institutions to them. At the same time, it also depends on The depth of communication with customers. What risks are our entrepreneur customers who can bear and are willing to bear? What are difficult to bear? How to avoid unnecessary risks? These all need to be confirmed with the experience of exclusive customer managers or investment consultants and effective tools to help our entrepreneur customers build the most suitable asset allocation plan.

Establish the concept of asset allocation

"21st Century": At the end of 2021, the scale of the asset management business of the entire Bank of China Group had reached 3.2 trillion yuan. As an important member of the "Asset Management Fleet" of China Banking Group, BOC Securities is also continuously expanding its business blue ocean and marching into the segmented track in the asset management industry, especially the asset management industry. I would like to ask President Chen, how did BOC Securities build their own investment and research system and improve their asset allocation capabilities?

Chen Lotian: BOC Securities did a few explorations in the field of public offering FOF:

In terms of improving asset allocation capabilities: first, the core team's investment and research capabilities, the other is the system capabilities of investment transactions and analysis, and the third is the platform capabilities of the investment and research system.

In terms of core teams, we have enhanced the three aspects of the three aspects: first, the strategy of macro and large assets, the ability of the second fund evaluation and the fund manager's selection, and the third is to strengthen the ability to connect the market and funds.

In terms of investment system: First, the overseas transaction is connected directly to improve the efficiency of the transaction; the other is to systematize the investment analysis to better evaluate and analyze our investment performance.

In terms of investment and research platforms: In the establishment of the asset management sector, we and the seller's securities firms research, and the communication mechanism and platform between us and our industry, we have a view to obtaining wider research support.

"21st Century": The current public offering FOF is in a high -speed development stage. With the continuous improvement of policies, in some segments, there will be great development opportunities in the future, such as the future link between personal pension accounts and pension target funds. What I want to ask President Chen is that you think you need to do a good FOF product. From the perspective of the entire industry, what are the ability to strengthen the fund manager? What are the explorations of BOC Securities?

Chen Lotian: In the past two years, the development of the public offering FOF has developed rapidly. In April this year, the State Council issued opinions on the development of personal pensions, which also pointed out for a long time. However, there are still several problems at the current industry level. The fund manager needs to solve it together: First, the investor's understanding of the public offering FOF fund is still deviated. Long -term asset allocation plan; second, investors have not yet established the concept of long -term investment, elderly investment, and asset allocation; third, the phenomenon of paying attention to short -term performance still exists, which is not conducive to the advantages of allocation of products such as public offering FOF. Therefore, our fund managers have a lot of work to do on the education side and investment side.

In the field of public fundraising FOF, our China Banking Securities will do several explorations and efforts: First, integrate user experience into investment management, and reduce the volatility of product performance as much as possible from the aspects of retracement control and fund selection, and give users more to users more A good investment experience; second, on the basis of the advantages of our macro strategy and asset allocation, strengthen the ability to build the market and funds; the third is to make the value of our public offering FOF products, the concept of asset allocation, and the concept of long -term investment Continuously convey to customers and establish a trust relationship with customers. "21st Century": Like you said, although the public fund FOF has very good development prospects, there are still many problems to be resolved. President Fu also knows the FOF strategy very much. Do you have any additional supplements?

Fu Wenjing: I add a little bit. Why is FOF product more and more recognized by the market?

The role of FOF is not just simply scattered risks, but more importantly to achieve a strong combination and maximize the overall benefits. Fund managers are also people, and human energy is limited. It is still possible to find a fund manager who has done a good fund or a certain style in a certain industry or a certain style. Difficult. For fund managers who are good at a certain industry, when the industry overall sluggish, even if he does well, it has obvious excess of the industry index, but it is usually unstoppable that the industry will not stop the killing power from the bottom of the industry, and it will face the face, and it will face the face, and it will face the face. The pressure of money. At this time, it is necessary to examine the overall performance of the configuration combination from a higher dimension and whether there is a need to adjust.

This is the same as being an enterprise. In the company, there are both technical talents to cultivate their own fields, and there are also management talents to control the direction. A company can have different business units. Their primary task is to make the business they are responsible for excellence, and make the moat and competition barriers. However, after all, the external environment is constantly changing. Sometimes some business units may be in trouble due to phased external environmental pressure, but it does not prevent the company's overall development. FOF is also similar. FOF Fund Manager needs to rely on a large amount of data analysis, with long -term tracking research experience and professional judgment, preferably managers or fund managers in various strategies, various industries, and various styles, and invest in their management through investment. The fund creates greater value for FOF holders.

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