Global Energy Observation ｜ Economic recession is concerned about "power" limited?OPEC and IEA are expected to increase the demand for oil next year will still increase more than 2 million barrels/day

21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Bin Shanghai report

Despite the increasing economic recession, oil demand will still increase significantly today.

On September 13, local time, OPEC's prediction of strong global oil demand in the monthly report remains unchanged. It is expected that global oil demand will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2022, and the demand in 2023 will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day. OPEC said that despite the adverse factors such as inflation, the demand of major economies is better than expected.

On September 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the monthly report that the expected expected growth of global oil demand this year was slightly reduced by about 110,000 barrels per day. However, the demand for oil will still maintain a growth trend in the past two years. IEA is expected to increase global oil consumption this year to increase by 2 million barrels/day to 99.7 million barrels/day. Demand in 2023 will continue to increase by 2.1 million barrels/day to 1018 million barrels per day/day. day.

On the other hand, due to the unexpected rise of inflation in the United States in August, it exacerbated the pressure of the Fed's strong interest rate hike, and the market sentiment was dragged down. On September 13, international oil prices rose from rising to fall, and the close of the day fell slightly by nearly 1%. On the 14th, the international oil price rebounded, and it fluctuated near the $ 90 mark.

Fortunately, there is still support for the fundamentals of the oil market

For the demand side of the oil market, a key issue is the central bank policy.

On September 13, the US inflation data burst again. According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the CPI increased by 0.1%month -on -month, and it was flat in July. In August, the CPI increased by 8.3%year -on -year, higher than the expected 8.1%. The core CPIs of eliminating large fluctuations rose 0.6%month -on -month, up 6.3%year -on -year, all higher than expected.

Inflation data has also exacerbated the Fed's expectations of continuing radical interest rate hikes, and the economic prospects are concerned about the demand for oil. According to the Fed's observation tools of Zhishang Institute, the financial market has completely digested the expectations of the Fed's 75 basis points next week, and even 34%of the possibility will raise 100 basis points.

Zhu Runmin, a senior economist in the petroleum industry, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that Super Eagle interest rate hikes will inevitably have a suppression of demand. Under the situation where oil prices have risen and the supply is becoming increasingly tight, interest rate hikes can inhibit consumer growth or even reduce consumer demand, ease the tense supply and demand status, and allow international crude oil prices to run in a relatively reasonable range. Necessary measures.

The good news is that, compared to industrial metals, the impact of economic recession on "just need" oil is much smaller, not to mention that there is still a series of supply problems in the oil market. OPEC said in the monthly report that the fundamentals of the oil market have not changed. The reason for the decline in oil prices is that "the large -scale selling of the futures market has exacerbated market fluctuations", and the degree of disconnection of the futures market and the physical market is getting greater.

With fundamental support, the probability of oil prices will not continue to fall, and for its own interests, OPEC+will not allow oil prices to continue to fall.

On September 5th, OPEC+decided to reduce production in October by 100,000 barrels per day (September is an increase of 100,000 barrels/day), and the supply of crude oil back to August was returned to August. OPEC+also emphasizes that if necessary, he is willing to hold a ministerial meeting at any time to respond to the market dynamics.

Matt Weller, the global research director of Jiasheng Group, told reporters of the 21st Century Economic Herald that OPEC+previously announced an unexpected announcement of an October of 100,000 barrels per day. It is less than the initial expectations and the duration is longer than expected.

What is more concerned about is that even the United States has signs of supporting the oil market. American White House officials may start to supplement strategic oil reserves when crude oil prices fall to about $ 80 per barrel. The U.S. Biden government officials are weighing the opportunity to take this measure, focusing on protecting the growth of US oil production and preventing crude oil prices from falling, preventing the oil production enthusiasm of oil producers. Oil price plummeted.

From the release to supplementary strategic oil reserves, the change of the United States will support oil prices. The US President Biden ordered 180 million barrels of oil from a strategic petroleum reserve at the end of March to respond to the situation of supply shortage and high oil prices. Nowadays, the oil reserve has fallen sharply. Data released by the US Department of Energy on September 12 showed that the US strategic oil reserve inventory decreased by 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 billion barrels last week, a lowest level since October 1984.

Supply risk is still difficult to dispel

Judging from the latest data, the tension of the oil market has temporarily eased.

The OPEC Monthly reported that Saudi Arabia increased by 236,000 barrels per day to 11.05 million barrels per day. For the first time in two years, it exceeded 11 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 2020. Judging from the data of the past few decades, Saudi Arabia has rarely reached 11 million barrels per day.

In response to this, the IEA monthly report also showed that global oil production rose for the third consecutive month, an increase of 790,000 barrels per day to 101.3 billion barrels per day.

With the release of IEA member states such as the United States, Russian oil exports have not been greatly affected, and the global overall oil supply has been maintained. IEA data shows that Russian oil exports increased by 220,000 barrels per day in August, reaching 7.6 million barrels/day, but it still decreased by 390,000 barrels per day compared to the level before the conflict. The IEA is expected to be overwhelmed by the crude oil market in the second half of this year, and it is basically balanced in 2023. In Zhu Runmin's view, demand prediction is actually a dynamic data, and there must be uncertainty. Scientific and objective predictions are essential for the development of the stable industry. This is a very large challenge. We cannot expect that there is no difference in prediction and actual situation. We must pay attention to the trend of changes in supply and demand, rather than a single demand data prediction.

As OPEC+reduces production to defend oil prices again, and the EU's ban on Russia's oil ban will take effect in early December, the future oil supply may still be more tense.

On September 2nd, the Seventh -way Group (G7) Treasury Secretary confirmed in a joint statement that he agreed to set a "upper limit" for Russian oil and petroleum products. The G7 also called on "all countries" to join the initiative. The G7 sets two very clear goals: one is to use this to restrict the rise in global oil prices and reduce inflation pressure; the other is to limit Russia's oil sales revenue to crack down on the Russian economy.

By September 9th, the U.S. Foreign Asset Control Office (OFAC) issued a preliminary guidelines for the upper limit of the Russian oil price. It plans to perform a service ban on the maritime transportation implementation of Russian oil and petroleum products that do not meet the upper limit of the price. "Petroleum" may cause false information to trigger US sanctions. Starting December 5, 2022, the restrictions on sea transportation of Russian oil will take effect. Starting February 5, 2023, the maritime transport restrictions on Russian oil products will take effect.

In this regard, Goldman Sachs believes that the upper limit of any price will be "theoretically empty, and actually look at more". Oil prices may still soar to $ 125 per barrel in 2023. Damien CourValin, director of Goldman Sachs Energy Research, said: "Consistent with the actions taken in the natural gas market, Russia may choose to counterattack on oil issues, cut off the supply of G7 buyers, and push up global prices."

What will happen in oil prices in the future?

Under the needs of demand, some Wall Street Banks have lowered the expected oil prices.

Martijn Rats, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that due to the significant slowdown of inflation and demand, the price of Brent crude oil in the third quarter of this year will be reduced by $ 12 to $ 98/barrel, and the expected oil price will be reduced by 5 to 95 US dollars in the fourth quarter. /bucket.

UBS analyst Giovanni STAUNOV also believes that the rebound of global epidemic will delay the recovery of crude oil demand, and Russian crude oil exports are more tough than expected. Therefore, the price forecast of Brent crude at the end of 2022 is reduced by $ 150 to $ 110/barrel.

Although the price of oil is expected to be reduced, it is still relatively high, which is slightly higher than the price of about $ 90/barrel at the moment, and even optimists give the target price of $ 150/barrel. Christyan Malek, director of Global Energy Strategy, Morgan Chase, reiterated his predictions on oil prices for $ 150 per barrel on the 13th. As demand exceeds supply, alternative energy such as natural gas and renewable energy cannot fill the gap. Oil prices and oil prices. It will go further.

It should be noted that the Iranian nuclear agreement has been delayed for a long time. The possibility of significantly increased oil exports in Iran is decreasing recently. After issuing a statement in Germany, France, and Britain, accusing Iran accusing Iran in nuclear negotiations, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on the 12th that the United States and Iran "did not" not in the short term "not "Moss" reached a new agreement.

At the official level, even the US Treasury Minister Yellen also warned that as the European Union planned to stop purchasing Russian crude oil in December, US gasoline prices soared again this winter. If the price of crude oil rises after European sanctions come into effect, American drivers are likely to be affected again.

Looking forward to the future, Zhu Runmin predicts that the basic characteristic of international crude oil prices is "short -term and severe fluctuations, periodic in the middle period, and long -term upward trend." In the short term, the violent fluctuation of oil prices has not yet entered a periodic high level under the influence of the global macroeconomic situation. In the long run, the supply of oil prices in the shortage of supply still has room for increase.

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