8.3%!The United States is inadequate, and the probability of 100 basis points in interest rate hikes jumps!Expert: Or the price of assets

According to Xinhua Finance, a reporter from our reporter Hou Jining, according to Xinhua Finance, on the evening of September 13, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor Statistics announced the CPI data in August. In August, the annual CPI annual rate of CPI was 8.3%, which was higher than 8.1%of the previous market expectations, and the previous value was 8.5%. After eliminating the price of food and energy items with large fluctuations, the annual annual CPI annual rate of the core CPI was 6.3%, which was higher than the expected 6.1%, a new high since March 2022. After the quarterly adjustment, the monthly CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, a slight increase from 0.0%from the previous value, and expected to -0.1%. On the whole, the falling rate of inflation in the United States in August was significantly smaller than the previous market expectations. The market was also concerned that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in September. After the data was released, affected by emotions, the US dollar index rose rapidly in the short -term, and once again stood on the 109 mark. The three major US stocks have plummeted, the largest single -day decline since June 2020. The Dow fell at 1276.37 points and a decrease of 3.94%; the Nasda Index fell 632.84 points, a decrease of 5.16%; the S & P 500 index fell 177.72 points, a decrease of 4.32%. Assets such as US debt and gold also fell across the board. Source: Zheng Houcheng, Director of the Institute of Wind British Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the US CPI data in August was less than market expectations. Speaking, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in September 75 basis points. The CPI data report shows that the price of gasoline continued to decline in August, offset the price increase of some projects, but except that the price of gasoline fell significantly, the inflation data of other items did not significantly improve. High -rise is the main driving force for the overall CPI, which has also led to a 0.1%increase in US CPI in August. Among them, the year -on -year growth rate of food items reached 11.4%, the highest value since May 1979. Source: In terms of the US CPI data report in August, the overall price index of energy items is -5.0%, and the negative value of the second month of consecutive month. The price index of electricity and natural gas emerged in August, and the price of electricity rose by 15.8%year -on -year, a new high since August 1981; the price of natural gas rose by 33%year -on -year, an increase of 3.5%month -on -month, and reversed a trend of 3.6%in July. However, the gasoline price index dropped sharply by 10.6%, which continued to expand from July, and once again became the main driving force for the overall price of energy items, and it was also consistent with the recent international crude oil price trend. Wind data shows that international crude oil prices continued in August the trend of shocking from June. In August, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 12%in August, and it was still falling down. Similar to this situation, the average US gasoline prices have continued to decline. The latest report released by AAA (American Automobile Association) shows that on September 13th, the average national gasoline price recorded $ 3.707/gallon, compared with the highest point of $ 5.016/gallon on June 14, falling at about 26%. The association also predicts that with the gradual entry of the peak of the American summer holiday, the demand for gasoline consumption may decrease in the future, and gasoline prices may fall further. CITIC Securities Chief Economist obviously analyzes the reporter of the Securities Daily that, driven by the decline in international crude oil prices, the recent CPI data in the United States has fallen. However, it is still noticed that the price index of food and service items is still at a very high level, which is the reason why inflation viscosity is strong. In particular, housing prices (including housing transaction prices and rental prices) continue to be high, which is the main cause of promoting the end of the US core inflation. The inflation data in August exceeds market expectations. In September, 75 basis points in the Fed's interest rate hike will be a high probability event. As it is clearly said, the US housing price index increased by 0.7%from the previous month, an increase of 0.5%from July; the year -on -year increase was 6.2%, and the contribution rate for core CPI growth was nearly 40%. As of 8 am on September 14th, Beijing time, the reporter of "Securities Daily" calculated in real time based on the Fedwatch tools of Zhishang Institute, the market predicted that the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points in September (from the current 2.25%-2.50%interest rate range to 3.00 The probability of%-3.25%) is 67%, and the expected option that has not occurred before-the probability of a significant interest rate increase of 100 basis points jumped to 33%, and the probability of interest rate hikes no longer exists. Source: The official website of Zhishang Institute "If Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points in September, it will be the first time in history to raise 75 basis points three times in a row. Such a large high -frequency tightening, which is a large -scale asset price including large commodities, Or formed a sharpness. "Zheng Houcheng said.

Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map Network Review | Editor Zhu Baochen | Qiao Chuanchuan Final Audit | Dong Shaopeng

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