BYD, the abandonment of "stock god"

Author | Yu Yu

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BYD can be described as halved this year.

Fortunately, BYD's sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year reached 641,400, surpassing Tesla in one fell swoop, becoming a global championship. In June, BYD's market value exceeded the 1 trillion yuan mark, which not only became the largest car company in China, but also surpassed the public in one fell swoop and became the world's third largest automobile manufacturer.

But the concerns also followed, and BYD's stock price continued to weaken, especially since the end of August, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed twice in a row of the stock god Buffett to reduce its holdings of BYD, which also exacerbated BYD's stock price fluctuations. The speculation is very arrogant. Is the "stock god" cleared BYD?

At the same time, because of Buffett's reduction of holdings, discussions on whether the valuation of the new energy industry is overvalued.

The first cash cash out in 14 years

On August 30, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents disclosed that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold 1.33 million BYD H -shares on August 24, with a reduction of HK $ 277.1 and cash out nearly HK $ 369 million. At this point, Buffett still holds 218,719 million shares, accounting for 19.92%of the issued shares of the issued rights.

This sitting in the market before the market, according to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, on July 11, the number of BYD H shares reached 388.6 million shares in Citi Bank's trading seat, an increase of 225 million shares. Number of BYD shares.

Only three days after the first reduction of holdings, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed a new reduction of holdings. According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, the Berkshire Hathaway Company reduced its holdings of 1.716 million shares H shares on September 1, with an average price of 26.272 Hong Kong dollars, worth 450 million Hong Kong dollars, and the remaining shareholding of 207.14 billion shares. The shareholding ratio was reduced. To 18.87%.

Picture source: official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

In fact, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stipulates that major shareholders of listed companies holding more than 5%of the shares need to be declared within 3 trading days when their shareholding shares have increased and decreased their holdings. Due to BYD's semi -annual report, Buffett's share holding the shares is still 225 million shares. Therefore, in the period when the semi -annual report was disclosed to the second reduction disclosure, Buffett should still reduce its holdings without disclosure.

Based on the shareholding ratio, as of September 1, Buffett's cumulative reduction of 17.86 million shares. The total shareholding shares reached nearly 8%of Buffett's previous holding of BYD shares.

Relevant persons of BYD investor relations responded urgently on August 31, "No need to over -interpret the matter, the company's operation is normal."

But the capital market obviously questioned such a reply. The three trading days after the first reduction of holdings were reduced, BYD A shares and H shares fell more than 10%. On September 2, BYD's US deposit vouchers fell more than 6%. As of September 7, BYD H shares have fallen by 15%in the last 7 trading days, and A shares have fallen by nearly 10%. Affected by the reduction of holdings, the largest decline in the entire new energy vehicle ETF was nearly 7%.

The market response is fierce. In addition to Buffett's influence, there is also a very important reason that Buffett has been holding BYD for 14 years. In September 2008, Buffett signed an agreement with BYD to subscribe to 225 million BYD H shares at a price of 8 Hong Kong dollars per share. Then the 14 -year holdings began. There is no transaction during the period. Based on the latest closing price, Buffett's investment increased more than 30 times.

In the 14 years when Buffett held BYD, BYD's stock price has passed the roller coaster several times. After Buffett announced its investment in 2008, BYD's stock price rose sharply, but soon the stock price returned to its original form. The decision -making is wrong.

But Buffett was unmoved. The company's vice chairman Charlie Munger's statement may explain why Buffett is optimistic about BYD. Munger gave the company's founder Wang Chuanfu's high evaluation, thinking that Wang Chuanfu was the combination of Welch and Edison -not only knows theory and technology, but also rigorously transforms ideas into reality.

Picture source: network

Buffett himself did not hesitate to compare BYD's praise. In April 2020, a photo of a god wearing a BYD mask circulated on the Internet. Buffett said that my goal was to live a hundred years old, and BYD's mask helped me. It turns out that the return of firmly holds is quite abundant.

Buffett is "wrong again"?

Buffett's actions caused widespread discussion, even "mouth battles."

Economist Ren Zeping publicly wrote "No new energy now, just like not buying a house 20 years ago", and the banner clearly stated: "Buffett's reduction of his holdings this time does not know what the purpose is. This time is wrong. After all, this year is 92 years old, with bad energy, it is difficult to learn and iterate quickly, and you may not understand new energy, otherwise you will not miss the best companies such as Tesla and other US in recent years. It will become more and more conservative, not aggressive, and the performance is not as good as before. If the successor cannot be cultivated, there is a risk of not guaranteeing the evening festival. "

In Ren Zeping's view, new energy is the most hopeful and explosive industry in the future. The short -term adjustment is normal and the long -term potential is huge. On the one hand, new energy vehicles are entering the rapid popularity of the public, and the market penetration rate is 3-5 times space. On the other hand, there are huge market spaces in green electricity, energy storage, battery, charging piles, intelligence, and new materials. He believes that from the perspective of industrial investment, new energy will be the best track in the next 3-5 years. Aside from Ren Zeping's judgment on the prospects of the investment in new energy track, there is another point of view that it may be too early to assert that "Buffett is wrong" so soon.

After all, Buffett has received more than 30 times the return on investment. Although BYD's stock price has dropped by more than 20%from the highest point, it is still in a high position. Try to make a small amount of reduction is normal investment decision.

What's more, continuous selling behaviors can be terminated at any time, and even "mistakes" can be corrected. In 2020, Berkshire Hathaway once sold a small part of Apple's stocks. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Buffett reduced its holdings of 3.7%of Apple stocks.

At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway in 2021, Buffett said that "selling some Apple stocks may be a mistake. Apple stocks are very cheap. Its products are indispensable for people. "".

Li Daxiao, the chief economist of British Securities, stood on the live broadcast of the side of Buffett. Li Daxiao believes that Mr. Buffett told us that his approach was done with an investment experience of almost 80 years.

"I still feel like I am a student with an open mind, and learn from those who have an eight -year experience. Don't say that Buffett is wrong today. Tomorrow Buffett is old. The day after tomorrow, I said that I have surpassed Buffett. Wait for you to surpass you. Buffett is not too late. "Li Daxiao said.

A small private equity investment manager told the planet to value the planet that it is not possible to judge whether Buffett's holding of BYD is to clear the warehouse and only wait for the subsequent information to be disclosed. "But if you can confirm that 225 million stocks that are custody are indeed from Berkshire Hathaway, it means that Buffy's willingness to sell is the same as the entrustment of retail transactions. As for the reason behind For faster, the stock price is reflecting its inherent value, and even overdrawing the future performance. "

In addition, the small private equity investment manager believes that if only from the perspective of investment style, Buffett's dealing law is not to lose money, so as long as there is income, no matter how much, it is right to reduce your holdings or clear warehouses. "There are very few institutions that can be held like Buffett for more than ten years. Many quantitative investment trading styles are high -frequency transactions as bands. Buffett scoffs about this transaction style. In the eyes of these institutions, Buffett may also feel that Buffett is wrong. Bar."

The founder of a stock analysis data website believes that from the perspective of the previous Buffett's investment style, he will not predict macro or a company's future stock price trend. Investment Opportunities."

This can't help but remind people of Buffett's warehouses to Western oil. According to the latest disclosure information of Western oil on September 9, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding ratio of Western Petroleum has increased to 26.8%. On August 8, Berkshire Hathaway held 20.2%of Western oil. It is equivalent to one month, Buffett spent more than 50.6 billion US dollars (nearly 40 billion yuan) to buy Western oil.

BYD's inflection point?

No matter what the purpose of Buffett's reduction is, one thing is undoubted. Since 2018, the new energy vehicle sector has gone through a wave of vigorous bull market, and BYD's performance has also risen.

The day before Buffett's reduction of holdings, BYD disclosed the half -annual report in 2022. In the first half of the year, the company realized operating income of 150.607 billion yuan, an increase of 65.71%year -on -year; net profit was 3.595 billion yuan, an increase of 206.35%year -on -year. Among them, the revenue of automobiles, automobile -related products and other products was about 109.267 billion yuan, an increase of 130.31%year -on -year.

In fact, BYD's new energy business is undergoing "the best year." In April of this year, BYD issued an announcement saying that it has stopped production of fuel vehicles from March 2022.

After completely turning to the new energy vehicle market, BYD's sales trend. In the first half of this year, BYD's new energy vehicles sold a total of 641,400 units, an increase of 314.9%year -on -year. At the same time, Tesla's sales were about 564,700 units, and BYD surpassed Tesla as a global sales crown.

At the same time as the car sales were hot, BYD Hong Kong stocks hit a historical high of 333 Hong Kong dollars in June, and the highest A -shares reached 358 yuan. Fire cooking oil, the entire capital market has a lot of differences in the follow -up trend of BYD, even the entire new energy sector.

Guangfa Securities believes that the process of rising industries from 1%to 20%is the fastest time for stock prices. Since then, the company's performance growth will be over the stage of high -speed growth. The leading company needs to make breakthroughs in new technologies and new products to stabilize the market share and further drive the increase in stock prices and market penetration. Miao Wei, the former Minister of Industry and Information Technology, recently publicly stated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country can reach a target of 25%, which can be achieved 3 years in advance, that is, this year.

According to the calculation of the semi -annual report data, BYD's domestic new energy vehicle market share of 24.7%in the first half of this year, an increase of more than 7.5 percentage points from 2021. In other words, regardless of the penetration rate of the entire new energy vehicle market or the market penetration rate of BYD automobiles, it has reached 20%of the critical point. In the future, high growth may be gone.

In terms of BYD's own situation, BYD's other performance pillar -the mobile phone business is obviously difficult compared to the new energy vehicle business of the smooth and smooth water. The revenue of mobile phone components, assembly and other product business was about 41.07 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 4.78%.

In the first half of 2022, the impact of tight supply chain and limited logistics on the mobile phone industry was higher than expected. At the same time, consumer demand was also suppressed by a macro environment, and global smartphone shipments showed a decline.

According to statistics from market research institutions, in the first half of 2022, global smartphone shipments decreased by 8.8%year -on -year to 600 million units, a decline in four consecutive quarters. During the same period, the overall shipments of the domestic mobile phone market had a total of 136 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 21.7%. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments were 109 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 14.5%.

Looking further, BYD's valuation is indeed not low, and the price -earnings ratio exceeds 140 times. The legendary fund manager has persuaded investors to stay away from high -PGM's shares. "To resolutely do not buy stocks with a particularly high price -earnings ratio, it will allow you to avoid huge pain and huge investment losses. In addition to very few exceptions, the particularly high price -earnings ratio is an obstacle to the rise in stock prices. Same."

Although BYD has recovered after a historical high point, the current high point of A shares has fallen by about 20%, and Hong Kong stocks have been adjusted nearly 30%. The valuation segmentation has reached 76%since listing.

Regardless of the future trend of BYD, the differences in the follow -up trend of the company and the new energy industry may continue. People in the industry suggested that investors ignore short -term fluctuations, look at the development of the industry from a long -term perspective, and find out the track leader in the segment.

Yang Delong, Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source, believes that the news of Buffett's slightly reduced holdings of BYD has caused a large adjustment of the automotive sector. It belongs to the short -term disturbance on the news and does not change the opportunity and long -term development of the new energy automobile industry. Prospects. "New Energy, as one of the few prosperous industries, the semi -annual report is outstanding. Investment should focus on the medium and long term, and use a larger overall view to look at the long -term investment opportunities of clean energy."

*This article is based on public information, which is only used as information exchange, and does not constitute any investment suggestions

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