Daily True Gold | Interest expectations have been digested, and the price of gold is expected to continue to rebound this week

Today Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

On September 5th, the international gold price stopped rising, and the lowest exploration to nearly $ 1692 / ounce, the highest touches of $ 1731 / ounce, the weekly line closed at the front line of $ 1720 / ounce, ending the three -round yin. The European Central Bank's radical rate hikes 75 basis points, which relieved the decline of the euro against the US dollar. The US dollar index fell from a high level, and the gold that had a negative relationship with the US dollar index rebounded.

Last week, the European Central Bank raised the three major interest rates of 75 basis points, with a rate hike for the first time since 1999. Forced by the US dollar's interest rate hikes and deeper geographical conflicts, the high inflation and economic recession of the euro zone are more serious than that of the United States. Therefore, they have to follow the pace of the Federal Reserve to maintain the dilemma of euro credit and alleviate the outflow of funds.

From the overall analysis, the current independence of the US dollar has become the increasingly unstable factor in the international currency system and the world economy. The risk of the world economy will continue to rise. The crazy suppression of the US dollar on non -US currency is a global financial war that the Fed and Wall Street use the international dominant position of the US dollar. This is not only conducive to the US control high inflation, the US economy to achieve soft landing, but also beneficial wealth. In view of this, in order to maintain its own safety, many countries have to reduce the US dollar foreign exchange reserves, and assets such as US debt have also been continuously reduced by some large powers, including American allies such as Japan.

For the US dollar, although the short -term will still benefit from the interest rate hike effect, the risks of US stocks and US bonds will continue to expand. Once the currency tightening effect is enlarged, the liquidity is exhausted to the stock market and bond market, and the strong US dollar will no longer sustain. For gold, as an alternative to hedging credit risk and options in the demand for diversified asset allocation, it will play an important role in the change of global monetary system reorganization in the future.

Looking forward to this week, in addition to continuing to focus on the Russian and European bureau, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on Tuesday will have a certain impact on the trend of the golden market this week.

From a technical point of view, the international gold price last week fell to 1700-1680 US dollars/ounce. After the important support of the early stage, it quickly pulled back to the $ 1700/ounce integer passage, indicating that the buyer below was strong, and there were technical indicators also available in technical indicators below. There are signs of overlooking rebounds, and the center of gravity has moved upwards, and it is optimistic about further rebound.

The short -term focus is on the $ 1725/ounce of the first line of the air, and the upward target is 1745-1765 US dollars/ounce pressure; below is the support of $ 1710/ounce. In terms of specific operations, it is recommended to be low -oriented, high -throw low -absorbing transaction strategies.

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