31 provinces in August CPI released: 23 Land price increases narrowed Beijing and Yuji returned to the "1 era"

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) in August 2022. Zhongxin Jingwei combed and found that in August, the CPI of the 6 provinces rose year -on -year than last month, and Shanghai and other 23 places fell. Among them, Hainan was up to 3.2%, and Henan's lowest rose 1.8%.

23 Land gains fall

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, CPIs nationwide decreased by 0.1%month -on -month, an increase of 2.5%year -on -year. The year -on -year increase was not only lower than 2.7%of the previous month, but also below market expectations for two consecutive months.

Zhongxin Jingwei combed and found that the 31 provinces had risen year -on -year CPIs in August, and the provinces with higher increases higher than or below the national level were 13 and 12, respectively, and 16 and 13 in July. In addition, it is worth noting that 23 provinces such as Shanghai, Fujian, and Henan have increased lower than July. Last month, only 8 provinces increased, and the increase in the provinces increased by nearly doubled.

Specifically, Hainan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Liaoning, Hubei, Guangxi, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Xinjiang and other 13 provinces have increased higher than the national level. Among them, only Hainan and Sichuan in the "3" era. Last month was 6 provinces; Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong, and Qinghai were the same as the national level; Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Guizhou, Hebei, Shandong, Tibet, Beijing, Henan and other 12 provinces increased. Below the national level, of which Beijing and Henan returned to the "1 era".

In addition, from the perspective of growth and decrease, Hainan and Xinjiang increased, with 0.8 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, and the maximum decline in Jilin, Shanghai, Fujian, and Henan was 0.5 percentage points.

Shen Xinfeng, the chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, said that the year -on -year growth rate of CPI in August was lower than the market expectations: First, the CPI of food items other than pork was weak, and the price of fresh vegetables was lower than the seasonal performance; The price increase of pork has slowed significantly, and only increased by 0.4%month -on -month. Third, the refined oil products have been reduced in two consecutive rounds, and the CPI CPI for transportation has fallen significantly.

What is the trend of CPI in the future?

Although the CPI increased "unexpectedly" year -on -year increase in August, from the perspective of institutional forecasts, it may still rise in the later period.

Looking forward to the price trend in September, Ding Yujia, a researcher at the Institute of Zhixin Investment, said that with the high temperature effects, the Mid -Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday are driven, consumption is expected to accelerate repair. However, the overall prevention and control situation of the current epidemic is still severe, and inter -provincial flow may be limited. In September, the price of pork was in the upward cycle, but as the pork reserves of various places were put in one after another, the price of pork prices had limited kinetic energy. It is expected that the CPI will rise again in September. Whether it can break the "3" depends on whether the market expectations of the market's expected market and the disturbance of demand repair will continue.

The Shen Xinfeng team said that in 2022, the CPI will maintain the N -type trend. Under the low base, the CPI broke the "3" in September to the highest level during the year, and fell in October and November, and it rebounded again in December. In terms of core CPIs, the current macro environment is weak and the demand side support is insufficient. It is expected that it will continue to operate at a low level in 2022, becoming the main drag of CPI.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the prices of pork and fresh vegetables have risen to varying degrees in the near future. In addition, the base of the previous year has declined sharply. The increase in the CPI in September will expand. Turning up. However, in the market pattern of residents' consumption restoration, most of the goods and services supply, the increase in non -food prices in September will still be at a low level. This will inhibit a certain effect on the overall CPI upward range.

It is worth mentioning that in terms of pig prices, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, with relevant departments, held a special meeting of stable prices in the pig market for stable prices. Overall judgment, the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period this year is expected to run in a reasonable range. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will continue to pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market in a timely manner to take strong and effective measures to ensure that the price of pigs run in a reasonable range and promote the long -term healthy development of the industry.

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