Li Daokui: If the Asian country violates the economic law forcibly deploy the industrial chain, there may be a new round of economic crisis

Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University in China

On August 19, the 25th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis was held and the Enlightenment International Seminar was held. Li Daokui, dean of the Chinese Institute of Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University, attended the meeting and delivered a speech.

Li Daokui said that the reason for the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis is that the relevant country's own economic development model has issued problems. During the rapid development, some countries have not resolved real estate heat, excessive investment, and the development of macro investment in the country, etc. question.

Li Daokui said that the overall external financial environment has a much smaller impact on countries in Asian regions than 25 years ago, and its dependence on the US dollar has fallen sharply, but there are still structural problems in various countries.

He pointed out that my country needs to attach great importance to the heavy debt problem accumulated after the high -speed development, and these problems are covered up in the short term. "In the future, the Chinese economy still wants to stimulate our growth vitality by deepening reforms in order to continuously improve the ability of future public finances, and to gradually resolve the debt problems accumulated in the process of high -speed development in the past."

Li Daokui believes that the current Asian region is facing the re -layout of the industrial chain. If it is forcibly deployed in violation of economic laws, it will bring a new economic crisis.

"Asian regions should prevent the unreasonable evolution of industries that violate the laws of economic laws. This unreasonable evolution is likely to trigger the next economic crisis."

The following is the full text of the speech:

Li Daokui: The 25th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis has passed. After these 25 years of precipitation, we can better summarize the most profound and fundamental reason for this crisis. After clarifying this, we live in the present and discuss how to prevent such a crisis again today.

In my opinion, one of the most fundamental reasons for the Asian financial crisis 25 years ago was the problem of the relevant country's own economic development model. More specifically, in the process of high -speed development, there are some major problems that have not been solved. For example, in Malaysia, in Thailand, more or less real estate overheated, and some investments are overheating. The national savings have not kept up with their own country. The development of macro investment. Including South Korea, South Korea's "reform measures" that may not be very suitable in the Asian financial crisis, which may not necessarily be very suitable, triggered the deformation of the economic structure and brought about the rapid expansion of investment in some industries. Therefore, in my opinion, the fundamental reason for the Asian financial crisis is that the real economy has changed structural changes. The financial crisis is equivalent to a punishment mechanism to amplify the problems of the real economy.

If you agree with the above analysis, then we will discuss the following questions: What are the major structural issues that need to be guarded in Asia, including China? Before answering this question, I must first declare that compared with 25 years ago, the overall savings and investment in Asia today matched, and the dependence on the US dollar has dropped significantly, so we don’t have to worry about the Asian financial crisis. In the near future, the soil will come again. However, we still have to prevent problems and analyze what structural problems existing. These problems may still cause a local crisis in the future.

In my opinion, various countries have their own problems. First of all, we can talk about China's own problems. In my opinion, the issue that the Chinese economy needs to pay attention to is that after the high -speed development in the past ten years, the local government has accumulated a fairly heavy debt burden. These heavy debt issues were covered up in the short term, and many of these debts were borrowed by local governments through local state -owned enterprise investment platforms. This quantity is very high, and I am probably far higher than the values ​​calculated by most research institutes now. In essence of these debts, local governments must be gradually repaid from the income of public finances in the process of future development. My core point is that the future of the Chinese economy must be used to stimulate our growth vitality through deepening reforms, and we can continuously improve the ability of public finance in the future, and gradually resolve the debt problems accumulated in the process of high -speed development in the past.

Another issue is particularly worthy of attention, that is, the current Asian region is facing the re -layout of the industrial chain. We all know that globalization has appeared in recent years, especially after the outbreak of the world, there is a voice that the global industrial chain needs to re -layout and cannot rely too much on China's production capacity. In my opinion, this is a risk. If the production chain is re -deployed in violation of economic laws, it is likely to bring a new round of economic crisis, and then it is manifested in the form of a financial crisis. Specifically, under the promotion of capital in the short term, unreasonable overexposure may occur in some areas. This investment violates the basic laws of international labor division of labor. In the long run, there may not be a good financial return. The unreasonable evolution of this regional economy is likely to trigger the next round of economic crisis and even the financial crisis.

Therefore, we must profoundly summarize the lessons of the Asian financial crisis and avoid re -acting. The most fundamental pursuit of affairs is that I call on all Asian countries to strengthen cooperation and develop well in accordance with the basic economic laws of international trade to protect the existing industrial chain and solve the structural problems in the country. On this basis Regional and global economy is re -prosperous.

Thank you, my speech is over. thanks.

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