Five "chief" talk about increasing consumption expansion investment: fiscal and monetary policy tool box "ammunition" is sufficient

Reporter Liu Qi Bao Xing'an

The special meeting of the State Council held a few days ago proposed that it is necessary to continue to introduce staged policy measures such as increasing consumption and expansion, and can be used, and it can be used up. All localities and departments must have a practical strategy. In this regard, five chief economists (macro analysts) interviewed by the reporter interviewed by the Securities Daily believe that insufficient demand is the current outstanding contradiction. Consumption and investment driving demand and enhance development stamina. It is expected that consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to show a gradual momentum, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to accelerate.

Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said that recently, major economic data such as fixed asset investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and manufacturing PMI continued to reflect that the demand was not strong. At the same time, in the case of weakening foreign demand, the importance of domestic demand to my country's economic recovery will be more prominent. In terms of domestic demand, consumption and investment are two pillars. The economy continues to recover and improve market expectations.

"After the recent launch of a series of stable growth continuation policies, it is necessary to continue to introduce staged policy measures such as increasing consumption and expansion to ensure that in the process of slowing in foreign demand, domestic demand can come up in time." Master Wang Qing said.

Make good use of policy financial instruments

The aforementioned meeting emphasized that "stabilizing the economy must rely on market players, while relying on the main body of the market, the prominent contradictions that have insufficient effective demand, promote consumption recovery to become the main driving force. , Boost confidence. "

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of research department of the Zhongliang Filighting Federation of Digging, said that under the guidance of the policy of "driving domestic demand", consumption not only provoked the burden on steady growth and recovery, but also , Expanding employment and other aspects also play an important role. The gradual release and accelerated recovery of commodity and service consumption needs are expected to help China's economy steady.

What stages of policies and measures are the next step? The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that in terms of monetary policy, on the one hand, it is to make good use of policy financial instruments to increase the amount of infrastructure construction and major projects according to local demand; Guide financial institutions to transmit the decline in deposit interest rates to the loan side to reduce the cost of physical financing. In addition, structural tools should be made, including various re -loans and inclusive micro -loan support tools, carbon emission reduction support tools, etc.

Wang Qing believes that the monetary policy may work in the following four aspects: First, to promote the effective transmission of wide currency to wide credit, the focus is to guide LPR to reduce, reduce the financing costs of enterprises and residents, and stimulate financing needs. Secondly, the urging policy development banks will implement the scale of 800 billion yuan in credit as soon as possible and add special financial instruments of more than 300 billion yuan to support the speedy of infrastructure investment; if necessary, policy -based financial instruments can further increase the quota. Third, fully tap the potential of various structural monetary policy instruments, accelerate relevant loans, and promote the growth of total credit. Fourth, the regulatory level can consider increasing the assessment of banks, guide financial institutions to increase loans to the real economy, and optimize the credit structure.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, believes that monetary policy will give full play to the dual advantages of total and structure to help economic growth. On the one hand, the monetary policy will still adjust the general gate of the currency supply, flexibly adjust the inverse repurchase operation, does not engage in large water irrigation, while maintaining a reasonable liquidity, guiding the interest rates of funds to fluctuate the interest rates of the policy; on the other hand, the central bank will also be Pay more attention to the use of structural monetary policies, realize the precise drip irrigation of small and medium -sized enterprises, and reflect the flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate requirements of monetary policy.

There are also "big moves" in fiscal policy

Since the beginning of this year, positive fiscal policies have reached forward, continuously improved efficiency, more focused on accurate and sustainable, and played an important role in maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range.

"The fiscal policy should continue to play the main role, make good use of the local special debt quota, speed up the investment in related projects, and avoid insufficient investment in infrastructure investment. At the same time Energy vehicles such as energy vehicles that meet the direction of economic structural transformation can further introduce encouragement measures such as tax and fees, "said Dong Zhongyun.

Obviously, fiscal policies can work in four aspects: one is to further increase the efforts of tax refund policies; second, to speed up the progress of fiscal support and support the "three guarantees" work; Use more than 500 billion yuan of special debt deposit limits to expand the scope of use of special debt; fourth, support for small and medium -sized enterprises to relieve difficulties, implement various tax preferential policies, and expand financing guarantee. The development of fiscal policy will play a role in stimulating effective demand from two directions of investment and consumption.

It is worth mentioning that the recently -held National Association decided that more than 500 billion yuan of special debt limits in the local area since 2019, 70%of the local area, 30%of the central government allocated and tilted to many areas of mature projects. All localities should be issued by the end of October to support projects under construction, and more physical workloads are formed during the year.

Wang Qing believes that on this basis, some special debt quota next year may be used in advance to this year. It is expected that in addition to continuing to focus on the speedy of infrastructure investment by the end of the year, a large scale may also be introduced. "You can continue to issue consumer coupons to support car consumption, and to tilt it from the purchase of new energy vehicles, encourage scrapped old cars, replace new cars, expand the subsidy range of purchasing new cars, and drive consumption upgrades and growth." The monetary policy must be closely cooperated with fiscal policy, further enlarging the role of the toolbox, and achieved precision drip irrigation of funds.

Main economic data will improve

Looking forward to the follow -up major economic data trend, Dong Zhongyun said that consumption and investment data will improve in the fourth quarter, but foreign demand may drag out the growth rate of exports weakened. It is expected that GDP in the fourth quarter is expected to fall in 4.5%to 5%.

"As the consumption policy is frequent, the probability of commodity consumption will continue to speed up." Pang Ye said that it is necessary to pay attention to promoting consumer policies such as automobiles and home appliances. Gradually weakening the problem, the subsequent consumption recovery also requires the policy level to further strengthen accurate support, and pay attention to the stability of the real estate market and maintaining the healthy development of the real estate industry to repair the consumer demand of the real estate chain.

Wang Qing said that as a whole, due to factors such as the decline in the same period of the previous year, it is estimated that the year -on -year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in August will improve from 2.7%in July to about 4.2%. This will drive the cumulative growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first eight months of the total of the total retail sales of consumer goods from negative to positive. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the epidemic has been stable and promoted by the continuous increase of consumption policies. The consumption is expected to show a gradual trend. The total retail sales of social consumer goods are expected to rise to about 5.0%year -on -year, and the cumulative growth rate of the whole year has reached about 2.0%.

In terms of investment, Wang Qing expects that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will remain at about 5.7%in the first eight months, which is basically the same as the previous value, and it will continue to be at a rapid growth level. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will rise to 7.9%, accelerated by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to accelerate. The cumulative infrastructure investment throughout the year is expected to be close to 10%year -on -year, far exceeding the growth level of 0.4%of the previous year.

- END -