Behind the "cliff -like decline" of global shipping costs, what impact will it affect Chinese products and enterprises?

[Global Times reporter Pan Xiaotong Global Times Special reporter in Germany Zhaodong] The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" said that it was also applicable to the global maritime industry. However, in this year's traditional peak season, the shipping market has suffered a cold current.主要海运航线的运价“断崖式”暴跌，集装箱航运分析师表示，在能源价格大涨和通胀攀升的推动下，全球经济衰退的背景正在拖累航运市场，而这样的跌势很有可能延续至next year. What impact will this change affect Chinese products and Chinese companies? "Global Times" reporters investigated this.

Can Chinese Christmas products be delivered to Europe on time

According to data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on the 9th, the comprehensive freight index of Shanghai export containers was 2562.12 points, a decrease of 10%from the previous period, and fell for 13 consecutive weeks. In the 35 -period weekly report data released by the agency this year, it has fallen for 30 weeks.

According to data from the Baltic Sea Transport Exchange, in January this year, the price of 40 feet containers from China to the West Coast of the United States was about $ 10,000, and the price in August was about 4,000 US dollars. The average US dollar price fell more than 80%. The Southeast Asian -Thailand route market fluctuates a lot. Due to the large gap between the freight demand for routes, it has fallen by 37.1%in one week. The price of the bicycle in the current market has fallen sharply, and there are even a small amount of zero freight and negative freight.

According to data from Freight Waves, the supply chain platform agency said that at present, it is difficult to see hundreds of ships in Los Angeles, Boracay, Rotterdam and other world -renowned ports, and it is difficult to see hundreds of ships waiting for long dragons. As of August 29 this year, there were 501.76 million containers in the port of Los Angeles, and in late November last year, this number was as high as 903.97 million. On the same day, only 8 container ships waited to stop at the port near Southern California at sea. The same last year was the same last year. Time, this number is 48.

As the Christmas season is getting closer, many traders are beginning to worry about whether Chinese Christmas products can be delivered on time. Hamburg trader You Dan told a special reporter in the Global Times in Germany that before the epidemic, he went to China Yiwu and other places to purchase Christmas decorations, toys, bicycles and other Christmas products. In the past two years, the business was severely affected by the breakdown and supply chain. This year, the situation of China -Europe shipping has improved, and the price of sea transportation has declined, which is a good thing for traders. The bad news is the depreciation of the euro and the price of commodity rises. Fortunately, China's price is not as high as European and American inflation.

"Although the Europeans are now high due to high inflation and low consumption emotions, Christmas is still passing, and the demand for Chinese products is still great." You Dan said that Chinese goods are still very large in various indicators such as prices, types, and quality The advantages. Although the survey shows that more than 2/3 German companies are expected to have problems in December, he still believes that according to the current situation of shipping, it will be better than last year.

From the height to normal

What causes sea transport prices to plummet? Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economic Research, Fudan University, told the Global Times reporter that the high inflation rate in Europe and the United States, superimposed on geopolitical conflict, energy crisis, and epidemic conditions, which has shrunk the demand for shipping, which is the main reason for the plummeted global shipping costs. Ding Chun believes that although the current plunge is to pull the high freight rate of last year back to a relatively normal level, "but this means that the sky -high price era has ended."

CEO Kang Shuchun, CEO of China International Shipping Network, told the Global Times reporter that the imbalance between the supply and demand has led to the plunge of shipping freight. During the epidemic period, due to the broken supply chain, some countries in some countries had disconnected supply, and a "wave of stocks" occurred in many countries, which also led to the high cost of sea transportation last year. This year, due to the high pressure of global economic inflation and the decline in demand. At the same time, the inventory market that had been accumulated before was unable to digest, which reduced European and American importers or even canceled commodity orders.

In August of this year, Wal -Mart stated that billions of US dollars were canceled; shortly after, another retailer Tagit said that it had canceled an order over $ 1.5 billion. Kang Shuchun said that as the front -end part of the logistics system, these retailers are the most sensitive to the market's wind direction. The large -scale cancellation of orders means that the procurement and consumption capacity of European and American countries are shrinking.

Xu Kai, chief information officer of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, told the Global Times reporter that Hong Kong and Airlines big data showed that in the third quarter of last year, about 30%of the global container ships were mooring. This shows that the global shipping capacity has improved; on the other hand, the demand for capacity of global commodity trade has declined, so the freight rate is inevitable.

In addition, a large number of new ships in shipping giants have exacerbated the gap between supply and demand. Kang Shuchun said that last year, the high freight of the shipping company made many shipping companies make a lot of money. Some large shipping companies invested profits into new ships. Before the epidemic, global shipping capacity was higher than the transport. The Wall Street Journal quotes the energy and ship consulting company Braemar, saying that a series of new ships will be launched in the next two years. It is expected that the net growth rate of the fleet will exceed 9%next year and 2024, and the year -on -year growth rate of container freight will be 2023 It will turn to a negative value in the year, which will further exacerbate the imbalance between global transportation power and capacity.

China should avoid internal price warfare

The Wall Street Journal believes that due to the many uncertainty of the international political and economic situation, the shipping costs are likely to further fall from this year to next year. Kang Shuchun told a reporter from the Global Times that although the current shipping costs have plummeted, it is still slightly higher than the level before the epidemic. Comprehensive consideration of factors such as high global inflation, high oil prices, and rising prices. Essence However, from the perspective of the current global economic situation, the decline in shipping costs is positive, but to what extent and when the limit of the daily limit is determined. Xu Kai believes that the high high shipping costs last year were abnormal, and this year's rapid plunge was more abnormal, which should be the excessive response of shipping companies to market changes. He told the Global Times reporter that this year many of the Bandker companies have new container ships launching water. The capacity of the turnover is very abundant, but the demand for global shipping booked is shrinking. In order to maintain the loading rate of the liner, the shipping company tried to use freight as the leverage to leverage the demand. However, the essence of market transportation demand is that the demand for trade is shrinking. The strategy of using price reduction will not bring any new demand. Instead, it will lead to vicious competition and disrupt the order of the shipping market.

"The moderate decline in international shipping costs is reasonable, but the continuous plunge is not conducive to the normal development of the entire market." Xu Kai believes that in the future, shipping freight will not fall and stabilize below 2019, back to slightly higher or close to 2019 in 2019 The level is a more rational interval. Xu Kai revealed that at the beginning of the year, many cargo owners signed a long -term agreement price with the Marine Logistics Company in order to avoid another case of finding another case. Now the market is far lower than the signing price. If domestic maritime logistics companies blindly follow the price reduction, it will not only harm the interests of the owner, but it is not conducive to long -term cooperation, and the price reduction will not increase the increase in transportation demand. Wait for new businesses. "

Xu Kai also said that the situation of "a box of hardships" for exporting companies this year will definitely not appear again, but this does not mean a good signal to convey profitability to the manufacturing industry. Among the key factors that affect corporate income, the proportion of freight is very small, usually within 1%of the value of container cargo. For domestic export companies, Xu Kai believes that more importantly, the international competitiveness and sales of goods, while the European and American economic decline and inflation have intensified. At the same time, it has to be digested for a period of time over order of over -order goods, and the decline in purchasing power will last for a period of time. "To solve this pain point, one is to strengthen regional integration, enhance the multinational management capabilities of my country's supply chain logistics, and open up the blocking point of the supply chain; the second is to cultivate more excellent Chinese -funded multinational enterprises and brands, enhance manufacturing products Design and innovative research and development capabilities have allowed China to get rid of the label of 'World Factory' and promote the "China Intelligent Manufacturing" high -quality products to attract more international consumer demand. "Xu Kai said.

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