The Na index fell more than 5%!The US CPI increase in August exceeded expectations, how will it evolve next?

Inflation

The US Consumer Price Index was announced in August. Data show that the US CPI increase in August is still at a historic level. Among them, the US CPI increased by 0.1%month -on -month and an increase of 8.3%year -on -year. This CPI increase exceeded market expectations. In addition, except for the elimination of large fluctuating food and energy prices, the core CPI in the United States rose 0.6%month -on -month, a year -on -year increase of 6.3%, and the increase was expanded from July.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes only fell slightly by CPI data. This fall speed did not satisfy the market. If the US CPI fell to the level of mild inflation, it may need to take greater efforts to raise interest rates and shrinkage, which will naturally put some pressure on the capital market.

Behind the historical high of CPI in the United States in August, the pressure of residence costs, food prices, and price of medical care service prices were mainly behind the historical high. Among them, food prices rose 11.4%year -on -year, the largest year -on -year increase in many years. Even if energy prices declined month -on -month, it still failed to promote the sharp decline in CPI data in August.

From the perspective of the market, it is obviously dissatisfied with this economic data and greatly increased the probability of the next interest rate hike. Affected by this, the three major indexes of the US stocks fell sharply. The Nasdaq index fell more than 5%, the S & P 500 index fell more than 4%, and the Dow Jones Index fell nearly 4%.

Behind the high inflation rate, the probability of the Fed's 75 -basis point of interest rate hikes has increased significantly, and even the market is expected to raise interest rates by 100 basis points. According to this rate hike speed, the market forecast may be higher than 4.15%in early 2023, but if the U.S. inflation rate is still high at that time, the terminal interest rate will continue to rise. Behind the sharp rise in interest rates, it will not only significantly increase the cost of debt repayment for U.S. -listed companies, but also put a reconstruction pressure on the existing valuation system of the US stocks.

Throughout the current level of P / E ratio of US stock core technology stocks, it is still at a level of about 25 times. Once the Fed continues to raise interest rates sharply and the US terminal interest rate continues to rise sharply, the valuation level of US stock core assets may be further moved down because the market cannot withstand a high level of valuation.

The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have not yet promoted the sharp decline in inflation rates, which is also a matter of headache the Fed. The US CPI data in August is slightly more market expectations, but more core is that the annual cpi annual rate of CPI in the United States recorded 6.3%in the end of August, setting a new high level since March 2022, and significantly higher than the market expectations. It can be seen that it can be seen that it can be seen that The U.S. inflation rate is still high, and the pressure on anti -inflation in the United States has continued to increase. Next, the Fed will not rule out that it will take more aggressive interest rate hikes and shrinkage measures to try to suppress the high inflation rate.

According to the Federal Reserve report, US household net assets decreased by $ 6.1 trillion in the second quarter, a decrease of 4.1%. Behind the significant decline in net assets in American families, it has a certain connection with the stock market plunge. However, while the stock market plummeted, house prices did not have a significant decline.

Behind the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, it will also promote the changes of the US dollar and the fierce fluctuations in the price of commodities. The sequelae of the Fed's sharp interest rate hike is gradually showing. In the context of strong US dollars, asset prices in the global market will also be affected by impact. In this context, we have tested our risk defense capabilities.

If the United States increases interest rates further, under the influence of a sharp rise in interest rates, it will not only constitute the restructuring pressure of the stock market, but also extend the risk to the real estate market and other fields. In the third and fourth quarters of this year, it is difficult for American net assets to rise rapidly. The adjustment pressure of the US stock market is likely to continue. For U.S. stock listed companies with weak debt capacity and poor cash flow, it will take over. The test may be even more severe.

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