The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September to rise, and why did the US dollar index rush up early?

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Chen Zhi reported that when the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes in September, the 75 -basis point was expected to rise in heating up, but the US dollar index encountered a sudden rise in the U.S. dollar index.

As of 19:00 on September 13, the US dollar index hovered around 107.74, the lowest value since August 26.

According to statistics from Tonglian Data DataYES, the US dollar index in the past five trading days has fallen from the highest value of 110.79 in the past 20 years to 107.74, a decline of more than 2.7%.

"This makes Wall Street's financial market surprised." A Wall Street hedge fund manager said with emotion to reporters. Because most Wall Street investment institutions are expected to keep the US dollar index in reaching a new high trend before the end of September, the US dollar index is expected to maintain a high trend.

In his opinion, the reason why the US dollar index suddenly fell at a high level is mainly affected by two major factors. One was the signal of the European Central Bank's significant interest rate hikes 75 basis points and the release of continued to raise interest rates. The poor and disadvantages are rapidly narrowing, and they have replenished the euro short -term, driving the euro exchange rate to rise and the US dollar index passively fall. The second is that the recent decline in crude oil prices has caused the market to increase in August in August. Investment institutions re -bet on the Federal Reserve or only raised interest rates in September, and they made a profit on the US dollar position.

HSBC Holdings Holding Global Foreign Exchange Research Director Paul Mackel said that although the market is facing a controversy of the US dollar index, he believes that the US dollar has not yet arrived because the fundamental changes that have caused the US dollar index to undergo fundamental changes.

The reporter learned that as the US dollar index suddenly fell, Wall Street's controversy on the US dollar index was continuously fermented. More and more US dollar option investors have begun to bet on the US dollar index that has been "topped" because the indicators that measure the one -month risk reversal (compare the US dollar to see the options and the bullish options are strong or weak) show that the transactioner's optimistic about the US dollar index is optimistic about the dollar index It has touched the lowest value in the past month.

But at the same time, many hedging funds are still continuing to copy the US dollar every time. The reason is that they think that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes still exceed other countries, which has continued to expand Slowly, they realized that they could not find other reliable safe -haven assets except the US dollar.

It is worth noting that even if the US dollar maintains a strong rise, it will not affect global capital to return to emerging markets one after another.

The International Financial Association (IIF) announced the August Fund flow data showing that although the US dollar index began to reach a new high at the end of August, after 5 consecutive months of capital outflows, emerging markets finally ushered in a net inflow of $ 27 billion in funds.

"Behind this is that more and more global capital has developed asset global allocation in a strong US dollar environment, because more and more investment institutions have also noticed that more funds allocate US dollar assets due to the strong rise in the US dollar, which is also one of the same one. The risk. "The above -mentioned Wall Street hedge fund manager revealed to reporters.

The US dollar index suddenly plummeted the cause

In the opinion of the aforementioned Wall Street Hedge Fund, the US dollar has suddenly risen in the past five trading days, and it has become a big topic for Wall Street. Because in early September, the US dollar index touched the highest value of 110.79 in the past 20 years, and the market generally believed that under the "blessing" of the Fed in September, the US dollar index will continue to refresh the historical high.

However, in the face of the sharp decline in the sudden US dollar, many hedge funds can only cut high leverage to the US dollar to see the bullish position and stop loss, which has enlarged the decline in the US dollar.

In his opinion, the US dollar index suddenly plummeted, or it was closely related to the European Central Bank's significant interest rate hikes. The reason is that the reason why the US dollar was able to reach a new high before is that an important behind -the -scenes pusher is that Europe has fallen into the energy supply crisis to make the euro against the US dollar index fall to the lowest point in the past 20 years, which has driven the US dollar index passively; The European Central Bank raised 75 basis points and hinted that it may continue to raise interest rates. More and more investment institutions began to expect the disadvantages of the euro against the US dollar to continue to narrow significantly. The US dollar index fell passively.

A foreign exchange broker told reporters that after the European Central Bank raised 75 basis points last week, quantitative funds have become the biggest promotion force for euro short -term replenishment. Because they often continue to expand according to the disadvantage of the spread of the euro against the US dollar and judge the decline in the euro exchange rate. Nowadays, the sharp interest rate hikes of the euro central bank have led to narrowing the disadvantages of the balance between the euro against the US dollar, attracting them to invest in reverse investment -increased their strength to the euro.

John Kolovos, a strategic analyst of Macro Risk Advisors, said that the US dollar index ignored the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hike 75 basis points and fell quickly, which was also related to profitable vomiting. The recent trend of the US dollar index shows that as long as the US dollar index increases at a certain range, it will usher in a high decline. For example, after the July to July, the US dollar index rose from 103.4 to 109.30, and a round of rapid callback appeared; after the August-September US dollar index rose from 104.65 to 110.79, there was also a wave of decline.

"Behind this may be that arbitrage capital is jealous of over -rising dollars, which may cause more and more non -US countries to collectively intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb the US dollar stronger." The aforementioned Wall Street hedge fund manager pointed out to reporters. Although this possibility is low, many arbitrage capitals are still worried that the intervention market behavior of non -US countries will eventually form a certain combination of force, which will make the US dollar index a significant decline. They are not as passive to "fight". Ansheng is higher. He bluntly said that the investment logic of the foreign exchange market has quietly occurred. In the past, Wall Street institutions' buying strategy for the US dollar was mainly "buying expectations and throws". The monthly interest rate hike was raised as expected, and the market dared to continue to push the US dollar index.

The strength of the dollar is not hinder the return of global capital to emerging markets

It is worth noting whether the decline in the US dollar will make global capital regaining the interest in investment in emerging market assets and is becoming a new focus of the financial market.

"In fact, many investment institutions are accustomed to the global allocation of assets by optimizing the emerging market asset investment strategy in a strong US dollar environment." An emerging market investment fund manager pointed out. Specifically, on the one hand, the global capital, on the one hand, has improved the financial situation as an emerging market asset that has improved the price of commodity prices to increase the price of commodities to achieve higher investment income; Assets such as emerging markets such as China as an investment -shelter harbor.

The International Financial Association (IIF) announced the flow of funds in August that after 5 consecutive months of capital outflows, emerging markets finally ushered in a net inflow of $ 27 billion, which marked that global capital is no longer subject to strong US dollars and strong dollars and strong dollars and strong dollars. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply and began to return to emerging markets.

The manager of the emerging market investment fund said that behind this is more and more global capital also noticed that the US dollar assets increased by the US dollar alone, in fact, there is also a high risk, because the Fed's continuous interest rate hike is just making the United States that makes the United States Meime The valuation of debt -US stocks fell sharply, which caused the potential investment losses of capital allocation of US dollar assets to even exceed the US dollar appreciation income, forcing them to use asset global allocation (investing more funds to emerging markets) to resolve the above investment risks.

SAXO Capital Markets senior strategist Charu Chanana said that this does not mean that the market has begun to bet on the US dollar index, because when the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike still exceeds other countries, the risk of the US dollar will fall to the top decline. It is still very large. Unless the market see that the Fed is willing to slow down the radical interest rate hikes to tolerate the higher inflation rate, or more non -US countries decide to interfere with the exchange market to curb strong US dollars, the US dollar index will really top it.

With the annual year -on -year increase of 8.3%year -on -year, the US CPI data announced on September 13th, which caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September 75 basis points to rise again, which caused the US dollar index to quickly jump 100 basis points by the short -term, so that it or not the dollar around the US dollar. The top multi -short game becomes more intense.

- END -