What signals do I have recently put on reserve pork?Will meat prices fluctuate sharply in the fourth quarter?

Recently, the relevant departments have invested in the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year, and local pork reserves have also increased.

On September 12, consumers purchased pork in a supermarket in Xinle City, Shijiazhuang, Hebei. Photo by Jia Minjie (Visual)

During the Mid -Autumn Festival, pork consumption entered the peak season. Pork prices have an important impact on the price index and residents' lives. What signal does the recent placement of storage meat convey? The National Day holiday is superimposed at the end of the year, will the meat price fluctuate sharply in the fourth quarter? How is the regulation of pig production capacity more effective? Let's look at this issue of Quick Questions ↓↓↓

Question: What signals do I have recently put in reserve meat?

Answer: The normal annual consumption of pork in my country is about 55 million tons. The amount of single frozen meat reserve is generally only tens of thousands of tons. Compared with the huge consumption, the direct impact of the market is very limited and cannot change the overall supply and demand.

However, the indirect impact of launch is not small, mainly to release signals, guide expectations, and convey the regulatory wind direction of authoritative departments and judgment on the future. The purpose of this launch is to guide the rhythm of the farm households and the release of the inventory of the slaughter processing enterprise, which not only meets the demand for meat food for residents, but also keeps the price index within a reasonable range.

Question: The National Day holiday is superimposed at the end of the year, will the meat price fluctuate sharply in the fourth quarter?

Answer: Since the beginning of this century, my country's pig industry has gone through five complete pig cycles. Among them, the fifth pig cycle is an unprecedented super pig cycle. There are many factors, long duration, large fluctuations, wide response measures, and fast recovery speed.

In the second quarter of this year, the sixth round of the pig cycle was opened. Up to now, the volume of sows across the country is slightly higher than the normal preservation, and it is in a green and reasonable range. This means that although the National Day holiday is superimposed at the end of the year, the demand in the fourth quarter has obvious support for pig prices, but the overall guarantee of pork supply in the later period is fully guaranteed, and the price is unlikely to rise sharply.

Question: How is the regulation of pig production capacity more effective?

Answer: Relatively speaking, pig consumption end is relatively stable, mainly fluctuating on the production end. In the future, the pig cycle should also be focused on the production end. It is necessary to attach importance to the production of pigs like grain production, prevent some places from "turning cakes" in policies, and stabilize the policy environment and development expectations for stable breeding. It is necessary to protect the basic production capacity of the main producing area like protecting the permanent basic farmland and make it a "cockpit stone" for pig supply. It is necessary to keep an eye on the number of sows and quality like the seed industry, and make it a "total switch" for pig production.

In practice, you ca n’t wait until the market lacks pork, and then temporarily holds the “Buddha’ s feet ”; and once it is sufficient, it is artificially to create difficulties for pig farming, or even unreasonable restrictions on raising.

- END -