Domestic weak recovery, overseas raising interest rates, the market may still fluctuate

Last week, the market shrinkage rebounded, and the active activity before the holiday decreased. In terms of industry sectors, real estate, coal, and colors lead, and the media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishing, and food beverages lead. After the continuous outflow of the northbound funds, it bought 14.753 billion yuan on Friday, and a slightly outflow of 221 million yuan in a week.

Source: Wind

Since the beginning of August, the market performance has been dominated by shocks, and the low -valuation sector represented by infrastructure and real estate chains has appeared in stages. Under the policy force, the domestic macro liquidity is still relatively loose. The economic fundamentals are in a weak recovery state. The current lower valuation level is superimposed. Although the short -term may continue the shock, it is not necessary to be pessimistic about the mid -term trend.

Recently, there are many economic and financial data. Looking back, the new social integration disclosed in August last Friday is 2.43 trillion yuan better than the market expectations. Although the new credit has not changed much in the same period last year, the structure has improved. The medium- and long -term loans increased by 213.8 billion yuan year -on -year, and the decline in residents' medium- and long -term loans narrowed.

Exports in August increased by 7.1%year -on -year, and the growth rate fell significantly and below market expectations. It may be related to the weakening of high base and overseas interest rate hikes. In August, CPI fell from 2.7%to 2.5%year -on -year, and PPI fell from 4.2%to 2.3%year -on -year. The domestic economic pressure is currently not great.

However, in the context of domestic interest rate cuts and overseas interest rate hikes, the pressure of RMB depreciation is relatively high, and it has also been restricted to domestic interest rate cuts. Recently, relevant departments have announced that the reserve of foreign exchange deposit reserve is 2 percentage points, which has a certain effect on the exchange rate maintenance signal. At the same time, it also stops the continuous inflow of Northbound funds.

Source: Wind

This Friday will disclose economic data such as industrial added value of industries above designated size, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and investment in fixed assets of urban and towns. In August, high temperature and rainy weather appeared, and local power -limiting production, outdoor construction activities, etc., and some suppression of industrial production and construction investment may be suppressed. From the current market expectations Data, especially real estate, may continue to decline.

However, the expectations of real estate -related policies are also relatively strong. On September 7, Zhengzhou City issued a notice to implement a variety of measures such as "compacting the main responsibility of enterprise, the government's full efforts, the bankruptcy reorganization, and the responsibility of serious accountability". A few days ago, all the real estate reasons were fulfilled and resumed.

After clarifying the main responsibility of the Zhengzhou model, this Zhengzhou model has grasped the rhythm of resumption and promoted the processing process. As the nation's first systematic resumption document, the introduction of Zhengzhou's special action implementation plan marks that the "keeping intersection and stable people's livelihood" enters the substantial landing stage. With the fermentation of favorable policies and the increase in the confidence of buyers, the reduction of real estate sales decline data is expected to narrow, driving the demand for industries such as building materials and home appliances and other industries.

In terms of infrastructure, the recent deployment of relevant meetings, policy development financial instruments have expanded to more than 600 billion yuan, and major project capital has been further guaranteed; at the same time, investment to extension and increase in investment entities will be When landing, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly. With the speedy of infrastructure investment and the acceleration of construction progress, cement demand will gradually be released.

In the future, infrastructure and real estate are still the focus of stable economic growth. Since the beginning of this year, the policy support is not small, but due to the impact of factors such as public health incidents, the market has repeatedly played. With the implementation of policy measures such as insurance delivery, downward interest rates, and residential enterprises rescue, the industrial chain -related building materials ETF (159745), infrastructure ETF (159619), home appliance ETF (159996), etc. : The traditional peak season is approaching, and the infrastructure building materials are expected to rise up? ").

Finally, pay attention to the progress of overseas interest rate hikes. Last Thursday, the relevant departments of the European Union immediately announced their interest rate hikes 75 basis points, which was the highest since 1999, and stated that it would continue to raise interest rates to suppress the economy. A number of relevant officials in the United States continued to stir hard, saying that it would continue to tighten the policy to restrain the economy, and even if the economy was in a short period of time, it was not expected.

However, after three weeks of adjustment, the market tightening the future policy tightening expectations, and the European and American stock markets finally recorded up this week and ended three consecutive declines. Although the market is currently expected to raise interest rates in the United States in September, the probability of 75 basis points in the United States is higher, but also expects that the policy marginal is eased after the US CPI and economic slowdown.

Source: Wind

Therefore, the US CPI data announced on Tuesday has a forward -looking role in future policy trends. Since August, the energy prices represented by crude oil have declined significantly. Under the weakening of demand in the near future, the price of crude oil has fallen below $ 90/barrel, which may help continue to slow down from the growth of CPI in the United States. The price is also under pressure to continue to rise.

Taken together, the US CPI is expected to continue to decline slowly in August, but it is still much higher than the target of 2%. The short -term US interest rate hike rhythm or difficult to reverse. However, with the rise of the base in the fourth quarter and the CPI continues to decline, the slowdown in interest rate hikes may bring the S & P 500ETF (159612) and Naqi ETF (513100) and other opportunities.

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